ASX shares that will benefit from a falling Aussie dollar

A falling Aussie dollar is bad news for some, good news for others

a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Australian dollar has fallen below parity with the US dollar for the first time in five months, this morning buying  99.45 US cents, from a high of $1.08 in February 2012.

Where it goes from here is anybody's guess.

Banks are forecasting the Aussie dollar to stay around 98 cents, while some analysts suggest Australia's relatively high interest rates and low levels of debt could see buyer interest push the Aussie back up over $1. Academic Ken Clements, at the University of Western Australia, has a different view and argues that it should trade much closer to 75 cents than to parity.

The falling dollar is good news for exporters and companies with offshore earnings, as it means they will now receive more Australian dollars in revenue. It's also positive for local manufacturers as the falling Aussie makes imports more expensive and consequently their products more attractive for consumers. It may also mean a mini revival in the local retail market, as overseas shopping loses some of its attraction.

Another sector that expects to benefit from the fall is the Australian tourism industry, as we should see a greater number of travellers visiting Australia. All up, it's good news for many sectors of the economy.

Which companies are most likely to benefit?

Since the beginning of March 2012, when the Aussie dollar started to fall from $1.08, shares in CSL Limited's (ASX: CSL) shares have risen 16%, and Cochlear Limited's (ASX: COH) shares have risen 9.4%. It's not hard to see why from the following table, which shows examples of the impact on 2011 profits the high Aussie dollar had, compared to 2010 levels (around 92 cents). All of these companies will benefit from a lower Aussie dollar.


Impact of high A$ on earnings

Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL) Net profit down $7.1m, an 11% difference
CSL Limited Net profit down $116m, a 12% difference
Cochlear Sales up 10% instead of 17%.Net profit down $15m, an 8% difference
BHP Billiton Limited (ASX: BHP) Each US1c change has a US$100m impact on net profit in 2012

Source: Company reports

Biggest Winners

According to Goldman Sachs, the biggest winners from the falling Aussie would be OneSteel Limited (ASX: OST), Select Harvests Limited (ASX: SHV), Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX: IPL), Aristocrat, Bluescope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL), Sims Metal Limited (ASX: SGM), Orica Limited (ASX: ORI) and Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE).

In the resources sector, stocks such as Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL), Independence Group (ASX: IGO), Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) and Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX: SFR) would benefit the most.

Retailers should also garner some support. With online purchases becoming more expensive, local retailers stand a good chance of picking up more business. The falling Aussie could be the saviour the likes of David Jones Limited (ASX: DJS), Myer Holdings Limited (ASX: MYR) and JB HiFi Limited (ASX: JBH) desperately need.

The Foolish bottom line

Further news from China suggesting the country's growth is slowing further, evidence that the US is recovering, more bad news from Europe and any further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank, are all factors that will push the Aussie further down.

The way those issues can't seem to keep off the front page, its likely we could see the Aussie dollar much lower in six months' time than it is today — which should be good news for Australian investors.

If you're looking in the market for some high yielding ASX shares, look no further than "Secure Your Future with 3 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks". In this free report, we've put together our best ideas for investors who are looking for solid companies with high dividends and good growth potential. Click here now to find out the names of our three favourite income ideas. But hurry – the report is free for only a limited time.

More reading

Motley Fool contributor Mike King owns shares in BHP, Cochlear, JB HiFi and CSL. The Motley Fool's purpose is to help the world invest, better. Take Stock is The Motley Fool's free investing newsletter. Packed with stock ideas and investing advice, it is essential reading for anyone looking to build and grow their wealth in the years ahead. Click here now to request your free subscription, whilst it's still available. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691).Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on ⏸️ Investing

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »

⏸️ Investing

Why Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) might hurt News Corp (ASX:NWS) shareholders

News Corporation (ASX: NWS) might be facing some existential threats from its American cousins over the riots on 6 January

Read more »