In FY26, the ASX 200 materials sector, which is dominated by the miners, shot the lights out for investors.

The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) soared 47% and produced total returns, including dividends, of 52%. 

That compares to a 3% rise and total returns of 7% for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

A staggering outperformance of 7:1.

The S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index (ASX: XMM), which includes an extra 100 mineral explorers, did even better.  

ASX 300 mining shares rose 53%, and delivered total returns of 59% in FY26.

These explosive returns followed staggering increases in many commodity prices.

Commodity price surge

In FY26, the best price growth among commodities relevant to Australian mining was lithium spodumene, soaring 278%.

Lithium is a key component in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), e-bikes, smartphones, and energy storage systems.

In CY25, silver experienced the best price growth, up 147%.

Silver is an industrial metal used in solar panels, EVs, tech devices, and data centres due to its superior conductivity to copper.

The long-term tailwinds of decarbonisation and the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out contributed to mining's outperformance in FY26.

The ongoing structural change in central banks purchasing gold to diversify their reserves away from US treasuries also played a role.

Experts say we're in a new mining boom that will be different to the 2000s because it will be led by critical minerals, not iron ore.

While these long-term tailwinds will remain for decades, that doesn't automatically translate to vertical commodity price growth.

This is made clear in the 5-year outlook for commodities just published by the Federal Department of Industry, Science, and Resources.

Commodity price predictions FY27

For the period FY26 to FY31, the government reckons FY27 is going to be the strongest year for many commodity prices.

According to the resources department's latest Resources and Energy Quarterly:

Commodity prices are expected to peak in 2026–27 and then drift lower.

This is important information for ASX investors because commodity prices directly impact miners' earnings, and thus, their share prices.

The report also looks at energy commodity prices.

In CY26, Brent crude oil, gas, and coal prices have surged due to the US-Iran conflict and Middle East supply disruptions.

This contributed to energy ranking second (behind materials) among the 11 ASX 200 market sectors for total returns in FY26.

The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) increased 9.37% and produced total returns of 14.51%.

The energy sector has the same forecasted commodity price trend.

For the period FY26 to FY31, the government expects four out of five energy commodity prices to peak in FY27.

This will have a direct impact on ASX energy shares.

Let's take a look at the forecasts.

Five-year outlook

The report outlines the Federal Government's predictions for average annual commodity prices in FY27 and FY31.

There is a realised nominal price for FY26, a forecast price for FY27, and a projected price for FY31.

As you'll see, over the next 5-year period, seven of the following 10 commodity prices are expected to peak in FY27.

Metals and minerals commodity prices

Iron ore price (62% fe)

FY26: US$92 per tonne

FY27: US$83 per tonne

FY31: US$72 per tonne

ASX iron ore mining shares: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Copper price

FY26: US$11,767 per tonne

FY27: US$13,754 per tonne

FY31: US$12,786 per tonne

ASX copper mining shares: Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)

Lithium price (6% spodumene concentrate)

FY26: US$1,532 per tonne

FY27: US$2,499 per tonne

FY31: US$1,684 per tonne

ASX lithium mining shares: PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)

Gold price

FY26: US$4,268 per ounce

FY27: US$4,534 per ounce

FY31: US$4,149 per ounce

ASX gold mining shares: Newmont CDI (ASX: NEM), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

Nickel prices

FY26: US$16,348 per tonne

FY27: US$17,226 per tonne

FY31: US$18,473 per tonne

ASX nickel shares: IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC)

Energy commodity prices

Brent crude oil price

FY26: US$79 per barrel

FY27: US$87 per barrel

FY31: US$68 per barrel

ASX oil shares: Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD), Viva Energy Ltd (ASX: VEA)

LNG prices

FY26: A$13 per gigajoule

FY27: A$16 per gigajoule

FY31: A$11 per gigajoule

ASX energy shares: Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Metallurgical coal price

FY26: US$213 per tonne

FY27: US$233 per tonne

FY31: US$225 per tonne

ASX met coal shares: Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

Thermal coal price

FY26: US$117 per tonne

FY27: US$128 per tonne

FY31: US$121 per tonne

ASX thermal coal producers: New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC), Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)

Uranium price

FY26: US$82 per pound

FY27: US$93 per pound

FY31: US$113 per pound

ASX uranium shares: Paladin Energy Ltd  (ASX: PDN), Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE), Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL)

The post Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By the time trading wrapped up, the index had fallen 0.64% and finished at 8,727.9 points.

This unhappy hump day for the local markets followed a similarly downbeat session over on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) couldn't quite hold on to an early lead, losing 0.35%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was a little better, but still lost 0.15%.

But let's return to ASX shares now and check out how the different ASX sectors handled today's tough trading conditions.

Winners and losers

There were only a handful of sectors that managed to make hay today.

But first, let's get through the red corners of the market.

Leading the losers were gold shares. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) had a shocker, crashing 1.93% lower.

Financial stocks weren't much chop either, with the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) plunging 1.41%.

Mining shares also had a day to forget. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) took a 0.88% dive this session.

Industrial stocks couldn't escape the storm, evident from the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ)'s 0.71% slump.

Nor could consumer staples shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) drifted 0.31% lower today.

Utilities stocks couldn't hold their ground, with the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) sliding 0.06% lower.

Our last losers this Wednesday were consumer discretionary shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) slipped by 0.04%.

Let's turn to the winners now. Leading the charge were real estate investment trusts (REITs), illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ)'s 1% jump.

Communications stocks were also spared. The S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) had lifted 0.85% by the closing bell.

Energy shares were another bulwark against the broader market, with the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) climbing 0.8%.

Tech stocks fared decently as well. The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) enjoyed a 0.35% bump this hump day.

Finally, healthcare shares managed to finish over the line, as you can see from the S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ)'s 0.02% uptick.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Our winner this Wednesday was shipbuilding stock Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB). Austal shares rocketed up 10.13% to close at $4.13 each today.

This big gain came after the company revealed another development in its long-running takeover saga.

Here's how the other winners pulled up at the kerb:

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Meanwhile, brokers have lifted their ratings on several ASX 200 shares this week. 

Let's take a look.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star Resources share price is $24.12, up 0.4% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 gold share has risen 6%.

Ord Minnett upgraded Northern Star Resources shares to a buy rating on Monday.

The broker bumped up its 12-month price target from $19.70 to $25.85.

This suggests a potential 7% upside ahead.

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)

The Liontown share price is 77 cents, down 3.5% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has crumbled 36%.

UBS upgraded Liontown shares to a buy rating today.

The broker lowered its 12-month price target from $1.40 to $1.20.

This suggests a potential 55% upside ahead.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price is $161.89, down 0.1% on Friday.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 mining share has descended 10%.

RBC Capital upgraded Rio Tinto shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker shaved its 12-month price target from $154 to $152.

This suggests a potential 6% downside ahead.

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE)

The QBE share price is $24.77, up 1.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 insurance share has ripped 13%.

Citi upgraded QBE shares to a buy rating yesterday.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $24.20 to $26.70.

This indicates possible gains of 8% over the next year. 

Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

The Sandfire Resources share price is $21.93, down 0.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 copper share has declined 4%.

UBS upgraded Sandfire Resources shares to a hold rating yesterday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $23.30.

This implies a potential 6% upside ahead.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $12.57, up 1.4% today.

This ASX 200 mining share has fallen 19% over the past month.

Ord Minnett upgraded Lynas shares to a buy call with a $14 target.

This implies potential capital growth of 11% over the next year.

Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)

The Hub24 share price is $64.75, up 0.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has fallen 12%.

UBS upgraded Hub24 shares to a buy rating on Wednesday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $77.35.

This suggests a potential 19% upside ahead.

Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF)

The Challenger share price is $10.14, up 3.5% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has lifted 4%.

UBS upgraded Challenger shares to a buy rating on Tuesday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $11.50.

This suggests potential capital growth of 13% over the next year. 

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO)

The IGO share price is $6, down 3.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 lithium share has tanked 26%.

UBS upgraded this lithium and nickel miner to a buy call today.

The broker reduced its price target from $8.85 to $8.55.

This implies a potential 42% upside ahead.

The post 9 ASX 200 shares upgraded by brokers this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Over the last year, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has slipped 2.1%, with the All Ords having dropped 4% in the past month.

Here's how the performance from these top ASX lithium shares compares:

• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) are up 12.2% in a year and down 22.3% in a month.
• Pls Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares – formerly Pilbara Minerals – are up 85.2% in a year and down 17.9% in a month.
• IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares are up 40.7% in a year and down 17.4% in a month.
• Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares are up 224.6% in a year and down 6.1% in a month.
• Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares are up 41.7% in a year and down 19.0% in a month.

The common headwind battering all of the miners over the last month is the sharp retrace in global lithium prices.

While the lithium carbonate price remains up 79% since this time last year, it's fallen 34% from its mid-May multi-year highs. And that fall accelerated in recent weeks, with the lithium price slumping 17% since 1 September.

A lot of that decline has come after global and Australian miners ramped up their production amid higher lithium prices, which looks to have quickly led to an oversupply situation.

But ASX lithium shares, and their stockholders, could have more to worry about than just an oversupply of lithium.

Indeed, investors would do well to keep one eye on sodium, an element widely available across the globe.

Will sodium batteries put more pressure on ASX lithium shares?

Lithium batteries aren't the only way to store large amounts of energy.

Indeed, in potentially concerning news for ASX lithium shares, Chinese battery manufacturing giant CATL expects that sodium-based batteries could take a big slice of market share from lithium batteries.

Addressing the Australian Financial Review Asia Summit, CATL Australia chairman John Kwon said sodium-ion battery costs will likely be on par with lithium-ion batteries early in 2027.

While Kwon said lithium batteries would remain a superior choice for EVs, sodium batteries could be better for data centre power storage. He noted that sodium batteries aren't as sensitive to temperature as lithium batteries. And they can be recharged more often.

"Sodium-ion is now moving from development towards commercial deployment," Kwon said (quoted by the AFR).

He added:

Sodium-ion is an important development because it creates another pathway for scaling battery deployment using widely available raw materials and adding flexibility to global supply chains.

And ASX lithium shares could be facing that fresh competition soon, with Kwon forecasting that sodium batteries should be commercially available in Australia by mid-2027.

The post Could this evolving development smash ASX lithium shares like Liontown, Mineral Resources and PLS? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What has concerned lithium market watchers?

The broking house said there were two news events which rattled the markets – a survey released by a Chinese consultancy, and media reports of tighter controls on new battery capacity approvals.

Macquarie said they did not see the latter as a great surprise.

In August, we flagged a softer market conditions in 1HCY27 as surplus concerns re emerge, potentially exacerbated by an accumulation of energy storage system (ESS) inventories across the value chain over the next six months. Our recent channel checks suggest tier-one ESS battery manufacturers are operating near full utilisation, while many tier-two and tier-three players remain below 50% utilisation. In our view, regulatory intervention is aimed at curbing further expansion of lower-quality, inefficient capacity rather than restricting end-market ESS deployments.

Macquarie said they suspected some of the market concern "reflects a misunderstanding of the policy intent, with capacity controls potentially lost in translation as ESS demand-side restrictions''.

Which ASX lithium companies are preferred?

Macquarie said among Australian producers, Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) and Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV) had the greatest sensitivity to lithium price upside, "given their operating leverage".

They also said IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) stands out for its attractive free cash flow generation across a range of lithium price scenarios.

Macquarie said re IGO:

Our base case forecasts FCF yields of 15% and 10% in FY27 and FY28, respectively. Even at a spodumene price of US$1,500/t, we estimate the company could still generate FCF yields of 7-9% across the same period. We note investor focus remains on cash distributions from TLEA, which have yet to materialise. In our view, a clearly defined cash sweep or distribution mechanism at TLEA could represent a re-rating catalyst for IGO.

Macquarie has a price target of $9.50 on IGO shares compared to $7.35 at the time of writing.

For Liontown, it has a price target of $1.50 compared to $1.07, and for Elevra, $12.50 compared to $6.97.

For PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), it has a share price target of $6 compared to $4.42.

On the pricing for spodumene broadly, Macquarie said, "value continues to accrue upstream, reflecting persistent tightness in the spodumene concentrate market''.

They added:

While inventory levels may gradually rebuild as Zimbabwean supply returns, current market conditions remain supportive of concentrate pricing.

The post Which ASX lithium miners does Macquarie prefer? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise

The Australian share market looks set for a better session on Wednesday despite a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 17 points or 0.2% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 1.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was 0.3% lower.

Oil prices jump

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session on Wednesday after oil prices jumped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 3% to US$94.25 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 2.4% to US$99.36 a barrel. This follows reports of an Iranian attack on US Navy ships.

Accumulate Paladin Energy shares

Morgans has been looking at Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) and particularly the Patterson Lake South resource. In response, it has maintained its accumulate rating with a trimmed price target of $13.30. It said: "We expect the resource and mine life to increase materially in time. Simply simple – PLS is one of the highest-grade undeveloped uranium projects globally, but its development plan is surprisingly conventional, with a TBM decline, proven mining methods, a standard Athabasca processing flowsheet and uncomplicated tailings storage reducing technical risk. We maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with a reduced price target A$13.30ps (previously A$14.10ps) with the removal of our 10% price premium."

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares including Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor session on Wednesday after the gold price pulled back meaningfully. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.7% to US$4,400 an ounce. Traders were selling gold ahead of the release of US inflation data.

ASX 200 shares going ex-dividend

A number of ASX 200 shares are going ex-dividend today and could trade lower. This includes Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB), CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), and Northern Star. CSL will be paying shareholders 227.7 cents per share early next month on 2 October.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The dividend payout ratio is the percentage of a miner's earnings paid out to shareholders as dividends. 

Most miners target a percentage range, or a minimum or maximum payout ratio, as part of their standing dividend policy.

For example, the market's largest miner, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), pays a minimum 50% of underlying attributable profit as dividends at each reporting period.

This earnings season, BHP declared a final dividend of 99 US cents for FY26, which equated to a 72% payout ratio.

Many ASX mining shares are paying boosted dividends this season because of higher earnings due to stronger commodity prices.

The final BHP dividend for FY26 was 65% higher than the final dividend for FY25, and the largest final dividend in four years.

BHP shares went ex-dividend last week, along with Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares.

This week, nine ASX mining shares go ex-dividend. Among them is Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), which benefited from an 18% increase in the copper price in FY26.

The higher copper price helped enable the miner to declare its first dividend since 2022.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) benefitted from a 278% surge in the lithium spodumene price and a 7% lift in the iron ore price.

The miner resumed dividends this season after a two-year break.

Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) and other ASX gold miners benefitted from an 18% rise in the gold price.

Genesis Minerals is paying its maiden dividend this season.

ASX mining shares going ex-dividend this week

Remember, in order to receive a dividend, you must buy (or already own) the ASX mining share before its ex-dividend date.

These ASX mining shares are among 40 stocks going ex-dividend this week.

The post 9 ASX mining shares going ex-dividend this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

With earnings season over, brokers have been updating their ratings and 12-month price targets on hundreds of companies.

The following ASX shares are among those that received upgrades based on their latest financial results.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

The Telstra share price is $4.80, up 0.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX telco share has fallen 6%.

Citi upgraded Telstra shares to a buy recommendation with a 12-month price target of $5.25.

This implies a potential 9% upside ahead.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

The Paladin Energy share price is $11.62, up 3.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX uranium share has ripped 21%.

Macquarie upgraded Paladin Energy shares to a buy rating on Wednesday.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $12.95 to $13.85.

This implies a potential 19% upside ahead.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG)

The Magellan share price is $8.62, up 0.7% today.

Over the past month, this ASX financial share has fallen 14%.

JP Morgan upgraded Magellan shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker lifted its 12-month price target from $9 to $9.80.

This suggest a potential 13% upside ahead.

Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI)

The Centuria Capital Group share price is $1.26, up 1.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX real estate investment trust (REIT) has slumped 16%.

MA Financial Group upgraded Centuria Capital Group shares to a buy call on Wednesday.

The broker lowered its 12-month price target from $2.18 to $1.83.

This indicates capital gains of 45% over the next year. 

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO)

The IGO share price is $8.08, down 4% today.

Over the past month, this ASX lithium share has jumped 14%.

Goldman Sachs upgraded IGO shares to a buy rating yesterday.

The broker lifted its 12-month price target from $8.10 to $9.50.

This suggests potential capital growth of 17% over the next year. 

Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (ASX: SIQ)

The Smartgroup Corporation share price is $11.55, up 0.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX industrials share has declined 13%.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Smartgroup shares to a buy rating yesterday.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $11 to $13.

This implies a potential 13% upside ahead.

Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP)

The Centuria Industrial REIT share price is $2.94, down 0.5% today.

Over the past month, this ASX REIT has fallen 3%.

Morgans upgraded Centuria Industrial REIT shares to a buy call with a $3.25 target.

This suggest a potential 11% upside ahead.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price is $5.22, up 0.1% today.

Over the past month, this ASX mining share has leapt 11%.

RBC Capital upgraded South32 shares to a buy recommendation this week.

The broker increased its 12-month price target from $5.30 to $5.50.

This implies a potential 5% upside ahead.

The post 8 ASX shares upgraded by the professionals post-results this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Hundreds of S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) companies announced their next dividends during the EOFY reporting season.

We're helping you keep track of ex-dividend dates with an article every Friday.

Here is a sample of the ASX shares due to trade ex-dividend next week.

Remember, in order to receive a dividend, you must own the ASX share before its ex-dividend date.

ASX shares with ex-dividend dates next week

Check out which ASX shares begin trading ex-dividend today.

The post 40 ASX shares with ex-dividend dates next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Materials and mining stocks rose by a modest 2.5% over the week, according to CommSec data.

Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) closed out the week up 0.37% to 9,092.3 points on Friday.

Only four sectors finished in the green last week.

Let's review.

ASX materials and mining shares led the market

As earnings season continued last week, several ASX mining shares reached new record highs.

Among them was BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), which reset its historical high at $68.77 per share on Wednesday.

BHP is not only the largest miner on the market, it's also the most valuable company of the entire ASX 200.

The BHP share price finished the week 3.28% higher at $67.30 per share.

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price increased 1.8% to $18.07.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 1.52% to $178.04.

Diversified ASX 200 miner, Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), fell 1.25% to $65.46 per share.

The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price leapt 7.36% to $5.25 on Friday.

Pure-play ASX copper share Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) surged 7.81% to $23.34 per share.

ASX gold share Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) ascended 3.38% to $24.78.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares rose 1.64% to $182.80.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price closed at $15.67, up 2.08%.

ASX 200 lithium stock PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) jumped 5.72% to $5.36 per share.

The IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price rose 2.63% to $8.58.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares edged 0.31% higher to $16.26.

Among the non-mining ASX 200 materials shares, BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL) rose 1.48% to $30.86.

The James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) share price fell 3.31% to $41.42.

Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI) shares decreased 0.81% to $21.98.

Several mining shares are among 37 companies going ex-dividend next week.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post ASX 200 mining shares outperform in final week of earnings season appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 200 stayed in green territory all session, steadily climbing to close with a 0.6% gain. That leaves the index at 9,092.3 points as we head into the weekend.

This happy day for Australian investors followed an upbeat Thursday session for US markets overnight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) enjoyed a modest 0.1% gain.

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) ran much hotter, rising 1.57%.

But let's get back to the local markets now for an examination of how the various ASX sectors fared amid today's pleasant trading conditions.

Winners and losers

There were only a couple of sectors that weren't invited to today's ASX party.

The most conspicuous absentee was real estate investment trusts (REITs). The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ) was left out in the cold, slumping 0.78%.

The other unlucky corner of the market was utilities shares, with the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) slipping 0.09%.

Let's get to the winners now, though. Leading said winners this Friday were tech shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) was on fire, shooting 2.31% higher.

Mining stocks were in high demand too, illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ)'s 0.98% surge.

Gold shares were also popular. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) roared 0.9% higher this session.

Financial stocks had a day to remember as well, with the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) soaring 0.75%.

Energy shares didn't miss out. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) enjoyed a 0.66% jump this Friday.

We could say something similar for consumer discretionary stocks, as you can see by the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ)'s 0.44% leap.

Its consumer staples counterpart was a little less enthusiastic. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) still managed a 0.3% improvement, though.

Communications stocks were our next corner of the market, with the S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) advancing 0.25%.

Healthcare shares were decent performers, too. The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ) put on 0.08% today.

Finally, industrial shares only just got over the line, evidenced by the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ)'s 0.04% bump.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Gold stock Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR) was our chart-topper this Friday.

Pantoro shares rocketed up 5.88% to close at $2.88 each today. That was despite no news or announcements from the company today.

Here's the rest of today's best:

Enjoy the weekend!

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did IGO Ltd report?

• Total revenue of $462.9 million (down 12% from FY25)
• NPAT of $145.3 million (FY25: $954.6 million loss)
• Underlying EBITDA of $285.9 million (FY25: $43.0 million loss)
• Operating cash flow of $132.4 million (up 209%)
• Final fully franked dividend of 5 cents per share ($38 million total)
• Group cash at $386.5 million and undrawn $300 million corporate debt facility

What else do investors need to know?

IGO's performance bounced back as profits from its Greenbushes and Nova operations, plus improved returns from the Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia joint venture, drove earnings higher. Cost and capital management also played a big part in the turnaround, with free cash flow jumping 176% to $134 million.

The company completed the sale of the Forrestania nickel operation to Medallion Metals and announced a deal to divest its Nova operation to Global Lithium Resources, further simplifying the business and re-aligning strategic priorities towards lithium and copper. Key leadership changes occurred, with Dr Vanessa Guthrie AO taking over as Chair and several other board appointments and departures.

What did IGO Ltd management say?

IGO's CEO, Ivan Vella, said:

We are proud of what IGO delivered in FY26 – across safety, operational performance and financial returns. The Group returned to profitability, generated positive underlying free cash flow and ended the year with a strong balance sheet, reflecting the benefits of disciplined execution across the portfolio… Looking ahead, our priorities remain clear: safe and reliable operations at Nova, continued support for Greenbushes and Kwinana, and focused growth through exploration, BioHeap and selective inorganic opportunities where value creation and alignment with our strategy is clear.

What's next for IGO Ltd?

In FY27, IGO expects to close the Nova divestment and focus on growth opportunities in copper and lithium. Guidance points to steady Greenbushes production, lower costs, and increased lithium hydroxide output at Kwinana, though some operational challenges remain.

The company maintains a strong financial position, with $386.5 million in cash and a significant undrawn debt facility, which should support disciplined growth and investment in its targeted commodity areas.

IGO Ltd share price snapshot

The IGO share price has been a strong performer over the past 12 months, beating the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) with a gain of over 50%.

View Original Announcement

The post IGO Ltd swings to $145 million FY26 profit, pays 5c dividend appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Despite yesterday's green day breaking a six-day losing run, the pessimists were back in charge once more this Friday, with the index opening lower and staying in red territory all session. By the time trading wrapped up, the ASX 200 had lost 0.27%. That leaves the index at 9,058.9 points as we head into the weekend.

This rough end to the trading week for the local markets came after an even bleaker night across the Pacific on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was hit hard, dropping a hefty 1.32%

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) did a little better than that, but still lost a flat 1% of its value.

But let's get back to ASX shares now and examine how this Friday's negativity spilled over into the different ASX sectors.

Winners and losers

Despite the market's retreat this session, there were still a few sectors that made hay.

But first, it was real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were first to the torch. The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ) was thumped today, cratering by 2.4%.

Consumer discretionary shares were slammed as well, with the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) tanking 1.82%.

Healthcare stocks weren't popular either. The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ) took a 1.79% plunge this Friday.

Tech shares also had a day to forget, evidenced by the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ)'s 1.36% dive.

Consumer staples stocks were no safe haven. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) shrank by 0.42%.

Our last losers today were industrial shares, with the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ) slipping 0.03%.

Turning to the winners now, it was gold stocks that shone the brightest. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) recorded another 1.41% jump this session.

Communications shares were a little tamer, illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ)'s 0.32% lift.

Energy stocks were dead even with that. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) also added 0.32% to its total.

In a rare three-way tie, utilities shares matched that figure too, with the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) advancing 0.32% as well.

Financial stocks stayed on investors' good side too. The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) ended up climbing 0.23% today.

Finally, mining shares managed to record a small rise, as you can see by the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ)'s 0.17% bump.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

It was NRW Holdings Ltd (ASX: NWH) that topped the index chart this Friday. NRW shares roared 8.04% higher to close the week at $8.20 each.

There wasn't any news out from the company today, but NRW did drop its earnings yesterday, which still seems to be exciting investors.

Here's the rest of today's best:

Enjoy the weekend!

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This rather woeful Wednesday for the local markets followed a similarly downbeat night up on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was in a foul mood, dropping 0.34%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was even more cross, falling 0.6%.

But let's get back to the Australian boards now and dive a little deeper into how the various ASX sectors handled this hump day's tough trading conditions.

Winners and losers

There were only a few sectors that escaped today's session intact.

But first, it was real estate investment trusts (REITs) that bore the brunt of investors' displeasure. The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ) took a 1.02% plunge this Wednesday.

Consumer discretionary stocks were on the nose as well, with the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) tanking 0.81%.

We could say the same for communications shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) cratered 0.79%.

Consumer staples stocks were in that ballpark as well, illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ)'s 0.76% dive.

Next came industrial stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ) sank 0.67% this session.

Financial shares didn't get a break either, with the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) tumbling 0.59%.

Energy stocks weren't riding to the rescue. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) dipped down 0.42% today.

Nor were mining shares, as you can see from the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ)'s 0.19% slide.

Our last losers were healthcare stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ) was sent down 0.09% this Wednesday.

Let's turn to the winners now. Leading the charge were utilities shares, with the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) galloping 2.54% higher.

Gold stocks were a safe haven too. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) jumped 0.3% today.

Finally, tech shares held up well, evident by the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ)'s 0.16% advance.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA) was our winner this Wednesday. Codan shares enjoyed a big surge in demand today, shooting 9.3% higher to $44.54 a share by close.

There wasn't any price-sensitive news out from the company today, although perhaps investors got some inspiration from a presentation released this morning.

Here's how the other winners landed their planes: 

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

I've selected three research reports recently issued by the team at Macquarie, profiling companies they think are undervalued at current levels.

Let's see who they like.

Viva Energy Ltd (ASX: VEA)

Viva this week said in a statement to the ASX that the refining margin at its Geelong oil refinery was up 156.4% over the same period last year, while volumes added 1.5% over the period.

This would likely translate into a boost in first-half EBITDA from $305 million last year to $770 to $780 million for the first half this year, the company said.

Viva Chief Executive Officer Scott Wyatt said:

Our strong financial results reflect a substantially improved refining margin environment which has been driven by a regional shortage of oil supply and refining capacity, as well as improving retail sales growth and continuing strength of our commercial businesses. Domestic refining has reduced dependency on international refineries and will continue to play a critical role in maintaining fuel supply security into the future.

Macquarie increased its price target for the company on the back of the strong expected results, with the price target now $3.70, up 9%.

Viva shares are currently priced at $2.71.

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO)

IGO this week reported that its Greenbushes lithium operation had improved its production over the quarter from 351,000 tonnes of concentrate to 387,000 tonnes.

Underlying EBITDA was $118 million for the quarter, down $1 million from the previous quarter.

Managing director Ivan Vella said:

IGO finished FY26 with strong operational momentum across key parts of the business, improved Group safety performance and a stronger cash position. Greenbushes also delivered a stronger final quarter, with improved production, stronger realised pricing and an 80% EBITDA margin. The stronger final quarter resulted in FY26 production and costs finishing toward the top end of revised guidance, while the recommencement of cash flow through Windfield reinforces the quality of this world-class asset and the future potential from the value optimisation work underway.

Macquarie said IGO's production beat consensus estimates by 5%, despite a fire at one of the company's operations.

They added that the company has enough cash on hand to consider paying a 3 to 7 cent final dividend.

Macquarie has a price target of $10.50 for IGO, compared to $6.89 currently.

Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN)

Bannerman recently gave an update on its Etango uranium project in Namibia, saying 92% of earthworks were complete, with the project currently on schedule and on budget.

Macquarie said the company has "materially derisked" the project via its joint venture with Chinese company CNNC.

Macquarie has a price target of $5 on Bannerman compared to $2.97 currently.

The post Macquarie tips these 3 ASX stocks to return better than 45% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

And all three are solidly outpacing the 0.4% losses posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) as we head into the lunch hour.

Here's what's catching ASX investor interest.

Web Travel shares leap on positive guidance

Web Travel shares are topping the charts today, up 12.6% and trading for $3.17 each.

While that leaves shares in the ASX 200 travel stock down 31.6% over 12 months, shares have now rocketed 37.7% since last Monday, 20 July.

Today, investors are responding positively to the company's first-half FY 2027 guidance update and share buyback news.

The company forecasts its WebBeds business to deliver an 11% to 15% year-on-year increase in H1 revenue (in euros).

And management expects H1 underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in the range of AU$80 million and AU$86 million.

"Our WebBeds business continues to deliver TTV growth with enhanced margin," managing director John Guscic said.

Web Travel shares also look to be getting a lift from the company announcing an on-market buyback of up to $90 million worth of shares.

Iluka shares jump on H1 results

Joining Web Travel shares in turning heads today, Iluka Resources released its first-half (H1 2026) results this morning.

Shares in the ASX 200 rare earths miner are up 5% on the heels of those results, changing hands for $6.12 apiece.

Iluka shares are outperforming despite the miner reporting a 22.4% year-on-year decline in mineral sands revenue to $433 million.

Unaudited underlying mineral sands EBITDA for H1 came in at around $40 million.

Which brings us to…

IGO shares lift on revenue boost

Like Iluka and Web Travel shares, the IGO share price is outperforming today.

At the time of writing, shares in the ASX 200 mining stock are up 1.8% at $6.87 apiece.

This follows the release of IGO's fourth-quarter update (Q4 FY 2026).

Highlights for the three months included an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase in sales revenue to $141 million.

And on the lithium front, IGO reported a 10% increase in spodumene production from Greenbushes to 387,000 tonnes.

"IGO finished FY26 with strong operational momentum across key parts of the business, improved Group safety performance and a stronger cash position," IGO CEO Ivan Vella said.

"Greenbushes also delivered a stronger final quarter, with improved production, stronger realised pricing and an 80% EBITDA margin," he added.

The post Why is everyone talking about IGO, Iluka Resources and Web Travel shares on Tuesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did IGO Ltd report?

• Group sales revenue up 18% quarter-on-quarter to $141 million
• Group underlying EBITDA of $118 million for 4Q26
• Share of Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) net profit up 38% to $121 million
• Net cash increased by 18% to $387 million at quarter's end
• Nova produced 15,304 tonnes of nickel at cash costs of $4.74/lb in FY26
• Greenbushes spodumene production up 10% to 387kt for the quarter

What else do investors need to know?

IGO delivered strong operational performance at Nova and Greenbushes, with Nova finishing ahead of life-of-mine production guidance and below cost expectations. The company also announced the divestment of Nova to Global Lithium, effective after mining concludes in the December 2026 quarter, as part of efforts to simplify and focus its portfolio.

Kwinana's lithium hydroxide production was affected by a major planned shutdown, resulting in production of 897 tonnes—15% of nameplate capacity—and a higher conversion cost of $40,670 per tonne. Another shutdown is planned for July/August to commission an off-gas treatment system, which will reduce production in the September quarter.

Greenbushes posted an 80% EBITDA margin for the quarter, while production at the CGP3 plant is expected to restart soon after a June fire.

What did IGO Ltd management say?

Ivan Vella, Managing Director and CEO of IGO, said:

IGO finished FY26 with strong operational momentum across key parts of the business, improved Group safety performance and a stronger cash position.

What's next for IGO Ltd?

IGO is targeting a more streamlined copper and lithium portfolio, with portfolio changes such as the Forrestania and Nova divestments reflecting disciplined management. The company remains focused on unlocking value at Cosmos, rationalising exploration tenure, and advancing its proprietary BioHeap sulphide leaching technology.

For FY27, IGO has set guidance for Greenbushes spodumene production at 1,550–1,750 kt, Nova nickel production at 19,000–20,000 tonnes (to December 2026), and Kwinana lithium hydroxide output at 9,000–11,000 tonnes. Exploration and technical development remain priorities to support future growth.

IGO Ltd share price snapshot

The IGO Ltd share price has been a strong performer over the last 12 months, rising 35% thanks to higher lithium prices. This compares to a 1.4% gain by the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO).

View Original Announcement

The post IGO Ltd share price: Q4 results show sales growth, strong cash position appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX lithium shares in focus

Three major broking houses in Morgans, UBS, and Macquarie have issued research notes on the lithium sector this week, with UBS saying they expect Australian lithium companies to generate strong cash flow over the June quarter, "as stronger realised lithium prices drive robust margins''.

They added:

With lithium prices recovering sharply since mid-CY25, producers have moved quickly to revisit and accelerate growth initiatives, although we believe the market is underestimating the capital required to deliver the next expansion phase. Concerns build around rising battery inventories, weak China NEV sales, an accelerating / uncertain supply response, though we continue to believe the market fundamentals remain strong and remain overweight lithium.

Macquarie notes that there remains limited visibility of the expansion of the major Chinese producer Jianxiawo and, therefore, its effect on the market.

Macquarie said they see significant uncertainty around the supply and demand outlook for CY27.

They added:

While future supply additions are highly visible, we believe the market may be underestimating project delays, commissioning risks and ramp-up challenges.

Which ASX lithium shares do the experts like?

Macquarie's top pick in the sector is IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), with a price target of $10.50.

Other companies it had assigned an outperform rating to include PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), PMET Ltd (ASX: PMT), Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Wildcat Resources Ltd (ASX: WC8), and Global Lithium Ltd (ASX: GL1).

In contrast, Morgans has a hold recommendation on PLS shares, preferring Liontown Resources, which it has an accumulate rating on and a price target of $1.70 on, compared to $1.36 currently.

Morgans also has an accumulate rating on Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), with a $68 price target compared to $56.65 currently.

UBS also has a neutral rating on PLS shares, and buys on IGO, Liontown, PMET, and Elevra.

Morgans noted that the recent pullback in lithium prices was likely a short-term correction.

They added:

We see this recent sell-off as the market pricing in a step-change in near-term supply, not an expectation that the commodity is going to experience a severe sell off and enter another downcycle. Rather, we think investors have concluded that the probability of another leg is now considerably lower, given the CATL and Zimbabwe supply catalysts, plus incremental Australian supply coming back online. In our view, the equity rally through 1Q/2Q26 pushed several names ahead of what we'd consider fair value on a through-cycle price deck, and this correction is best read as a re-rating back toward more appropriate valuations, not a loss of confidence in sector fundamentals.   

The post What are the top picks in the ASX lithium sector right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After yesterday's lethargic showing, investors came back to the ASX boards with a little more pep in their steps, sending the ASX 200 0.37% higher. After staying in green territory all day, the index ended up closing at 8,841.1 points.

This confident mid-week session for the Australian markets follows a sunny session on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) had a lukewarm day, rising by just 0.018%.

However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was far more bullish, gaining 0.9%.

Let's get back to the local markets now and dive a little deeper into what the various ASX sectors were up to today.

Winners and losers

We had more green sectors than red ones this session.

Leading the red sectors were communications shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) was shunned, tumbling 1.2%.

Gold stocks had a similar experience, with the All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) diving 0.95%.

Energy shares found themselves on the nose, too. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) retreated 0.57% this hump day.

We could say the same for consumer staples stocks, with the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) dipping 0.56%.

Healthcare stocks couldn't hold their own either, evident by the S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ)'s 0.38% slide.

Our last losers were consumer discretionary shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) slipped 0.22% lower by the close of trading.

Let's turn to the winners now. Leading the push higher were mining stocks, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) surging 1.7%.

Utilities shares were far tamer, though. The S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) lifted 0.17% today.

Financial stocks were also in that ballpark, illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ)'s 0.15% advance.

Tech shares followed financials. The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) jumped 0.13%.

Then we had real estate investment trusts (REITs), with the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ) also bouncing 0.13% higher.

Finally, industrial stocks rounded out the winners this Wednesday, as you can see by the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ)'s 0.07% bump.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Our best performer this hump day was miner Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (ASX: KCN). Kingsgate shares shot up 15.89% this session to finish at $4.23 each.

This came after the company reported some guidance and production updates, which clearly went down well with the market.

Here's how the other top stocks tied up at the dock: 

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Spodumene prices surged approximately 196% over the twelve months to June 2026. This powered ASX lithium producers to among the strongest returns in the market.

Then came June.

Spodumene prices fell by around 12% in June, triggering a sharp, rapid reversal across the sector.

The question now is whether the cooling is temporary or the beginning of a more sustained retreat.

PLS Group: The largest ASX lithium share takes the hardest hit

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) has had the most dramatic ride of the three.

PLS shares reached a two-and-a-half-year high of $6.38 in May before retreating significantly since then.

The pullback reflects two forces operating at the same time.

Softer lithium futures prices flowed directly through to earnings expectations, while investors who rode PLS from below $2 a year ago have been taking profits after an extraordinary run.

Importantly, the underlying business remains solid.

PLS reported underlying EBITDA surging 241% to $253 million in the first half of FY26. Encouragingly, EBITDA margins expanded from 17% to 41%.

UBS downgraded PLS from buy to neutral with a $4.95 price target, reflecting the view that the easy gains from the initial recovery have been captured.

Liontown: Ramp-up risk compounds the price fall

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) carries the highest risk of the three because it is still ramping up its Kathleen Valley mine in Western Australia.

A 12% fall in the spodumene price compounds operational risk rather than simply reducing a profit margin on an established operation.

Liontown fell 30.2% in June to $1.69, the sharpest decline of the three.

Despite the sell-off, the longer-term picture remains positive for believers in Kathleen Valley.

UBS retained its buy rating on Liontown and raised its target to $2.20, citing the quality of the deposit and the improving ramp-up trajectory.

The current share price sits comfortably below that target, implying meaningful upside if lithium prices stabilise and the ramp-up continues on track.

IGO: Diversification provides some insulation

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) is the most operationally diversified of the three ASX lithium shares.

Lithium exposure is diversified through its share of Greenbushes and the Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Refinery alongside nickel production from Nova.

That diversification provides some insulation from the spodumene price cooling that hit pure-play producers hardest.

IGO fell 23.1% in June to $7.37, a meaningful decline but less severe than Liontown's.

The Kwinana Refinery showed strong improvement in the most recent quarter.

Production increased to 3,047 tonnes in Q3 FY26, up from 2,120 tonnes in Q2. This represented 51% of nameplate capacity, while Greenbushes delivered an EBITDA margin of 75% in the same period.

IGO's positive operational trajectory is important because it demonstrates the lithium division is improving regardless of short-term spodumene pricing.

The bigger picture for ASX lithium shares

The June pullback is a reminder that lithium stocks are commodity stocks.

They are not immune to price cycles. A 12% monthly fall in spodumene is a direct headwind regardless of how strong the longer-term EV demand story is.

UBS previously raised its lithium price forecast by 74%, forecasting spodumene reaching US$3,131 per tonne over the medium term, well above current levels.

The structural demand drivers, including electric vehicle adoption and battery energy storage growth, have not changed.

But until that demand shows up more consistently in the monthly price data, volatility will remain the defining feature of this sector.

Foolish Takeaway

Lithium prices cooled sharply in June, and PLS, Liontown, and IGO all paid the price.

Each is still materially higher than twelve months ago, but June's falls are a timely reminder that commodity leverage works in both directions.

For investors who believe the long-term lithium demand story remains intact, the recent pullback may be creating a more attractive entry point than was available at May's peaks for these ASX lithium shares.

The post Lithium prices are cooling. Here's what that means for these ASX lithium shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.