Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to rise

The Australian share market looks set for another rise on Thursday following a good night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 13 points or 0.15% higher this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.6%, the S&P 500 is up 0.9% and the Nasdaq is 1.25% higher.

Buy Harvey Norman shares

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) shares could be undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the retail giant's shares with a reduced price target of $6.70. Based on its current share price of $4.87, this implies potential upside of 38%. It said: "Following the sharp sell-off in the name since Oct-25, HVN's 1-year forward P/E of ~13x (as per BPe) appears attractive considering the new store driven growth in international retailing (UK, Malaysia, Croatia), refit program in Australia and opportunities to grow their real estate portfolio as Australia's single largest owner in large format retail with a global portfolio of ~$4.6b."

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session on Thursday after oil prices dropped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.6% to US$99.73 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 2.8% to US$101.03 a barrel. This has been driven by optimism that a US-Iran peace deal is near.

Graincorp shares are fully valued

The team at Bell Potter has also been looking at Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares. However, it thinks the grain exporter's shares are fully valued at current levels and has retained its hold rating and $6.80 price target. It said: "As the focus shifts to the upcoming crop, soil moisture profiles are in general the opposite of a year ago, being improved in the south and drier in the north. At this stage, the increasing shift in outlook towards an El Nino bias in 2HCY26 warrants consideration against potential yield outcomes."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Thursday after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 2.4% to US$4,658.4 an ounce. A softer US dollar gave the precious metal a lift.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Despite several stints in green territory this morning, the ASX 200 ended up closing in the red by the time trading wrapped up this afternoon, dropping 0.1%. That leaves the index at 8,525.7 points.

This miserly day for Australian investors follows a far more optimistic morning on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was in fine form, rising by 0.66%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) did even better, gaining a rosy 0.77%.

But time to return to the local markets now and see how today's falls were distributed amongst the different ASX sectors today.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Let's see whether the two listed below have been given buy, hold, or sell ratings this week. Here's what the broker is saying about them:

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

Morgans was disappointed with this grain exporter's guidance update. It highlights that its earnings guidance was significantly weaker than expected due to margin pressures. Unfortunately, the broker feels that these pressures are likely to remain in FY 2027.

However, due to recent share price weakness and its strategic assets, the broker has retained its accumulate rating with a reduced price target of $6.76 (from $9.05). It said:

GNC provided guidance ahead of its AGM on 18 February. Despite a large east coast winter grain crop, GNC continues to disappoint with FY26 earnings guidance materially below consensus expectations. While its volume guidance is unchanged, margins have weakened given the grain trading environment has deteriorated further. Importantly, its balance sheet remains strong. We have made material revisions to our forecasts. The difficult margin environment is likely to also affect FY27 earnings.

With payments to the insurer no longer required in big crop years, GNC's fixed cost leverage should return when crop production issues around the world ultimately eventuate and global grain stocks tighten. However, we have now taken a much more conservative view on GNC's 'through-the-cycle' EBITDA moving forward. GNC's strategic assets are worth materially more than its current share price implies. However, the stock is lacking near term share price catalysts and investors will need to be patient.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

This lithium giant delivered a stronger than expected second-quarter update, with spodumene sales and revenue coming in ahead of expectations.

But this isn't quite enough for a buy rating. The broker has upgraded PLS shares to a hold rating with a $4.60 price target. It explains:

Strong 2Q26 with a material spodumene sales and revenue beat vs MorgansF and consensus expectations. Cash balance +12% qoq with total liquidity of ~A$1.6bn leaving significant flexibility to fund growth and consider shareholder returns. Management is assessing the potential restart of the 200ktpa Ngungaju plant and other growth options in P2000 and Colina. Upgrade to HOLD (previously TRIM) on recent share price weakness with an unchanged A$4.60ps target price.

The post Are Graincorp and PLS shares buys, holds, or sells? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Brainchip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN)

The Brainchip share price is down 2% to 15.2 cents. This semiconductor company's shares have been under heavy selling pressure since the release of another disappointing quarterly update. Despite entering the commercialisation stage a few years ago, Brainchip revealed cash receipts of just US$0.4 million for the three months ended 31 December. Given that its market capitalisation is still $350 million, it wouldn't be surprising if the selling continues if there's no meaningful improvement in its sales.

Credit Corp Group Ltd (ASX: CCP)

The Credit Corp share price is down over 15% to $12.07. Investors have been selling this debt collector's shares following the release of its half-year results. Credit Corp posted a 4% increase in revenue to $283.6 million and flat net profit after tax of $44.1 million. Looking ahead, management believes it can still achieve its net profit after tax guidance range of $100 million to $110 million. Investors don't appear confident it will get there.

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

The Graincorp share price is down 3% to $6.00. This may have been driven by a broker note out of Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG). This morning, the broker downgraded the grain exporter's shares to a neutral rating (from outperform) with a reduced price target of $6.60 (from $8.30). Macquarie appears concerned that margins could remain under pressure in the near term, which could weigh on its earnings growth.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU)

The Neuren Pharmaceuticals share price is down 12% to $14.25. This morning, Neuren Pharmaceuticals revealed that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has given a negative trend vote on its marketing authorisation application for trofinetide in the European market. Neuren's CEO, Jon Pilcher, commented: "Given the totality of experience with trofinetide in clinical trials and real world use over many years, this negative trend vote is frustrating for us and the Rett syndrome community in the EU. We fully support Acadia's intention to seek re-examination of the CHMP opinion in February, if necessary."

The post Why Brainchip, Credit Corp, Graincorp, and Neuren shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It was a tumultuous start to the earnings season yesterday as the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lost more than 1%. 

Graincorp was heavily sold off after the company issued low FY26 earnings guidance. 

What did the company report?

Overall, the company released its FY26 earnings guidance, forecasting underlying EBITDA of $200–240 million and underlying NPAT between $20–50 million. 

These were both below the FY25 result.

Additionally, the company reported: 

• Export volumes expected: 5.5–6.5 million tonnes (FY25: 7.0mmt)
• Receival volumes anticipated: 11.0–12.0 million tonnes (FY25: 13.3mmt)
• Nutrition and Energy average crush margins steady with FY25
• Agri energy contribution expected to be lower due to US biofuels uncertainty

Investors react strongly

In yesterday's report, management said that FY26 earnings will be under pressure due to lower margins across the business. 

This reflects ongoing oversupply in global grain markets and continued pressure on export spreads.

These headwinds identified by the company led Graincorp shares to fall more than 14% yesterday. 

In the last 12 months, Graincorp shares are down almost 17%. 

Bell Potter's view on Graincorp shares

Following yesterday's trade, the team at Bell Potter provided updated analysis on Graincorp shares. 

The broker downgraded its near-term outlook. 

Following the update we have downgraded FY26e NPAT by -58% in FY26e, -10% in FY27e and -4% in FY28e. Changes in outward years reflect lower carryout assumptions, with lower trading margins the main driver of changes in FY26e.

The broker said Graincorp does particularly well when east coast grain crops are large, global grain crops are small and EU/Canada oilseed planting are soft. 

For the last two seasons only one of these dynamics has been at play.

Bell Potter also cautioned the latest update for GNC, probably highlights how dependent GNC returns are to global grain fundamentals. 

With improved cropping conditions in the EU and North America and record crops in Brazil, Bell Potter said it is unlikely that the headwinds being seen are likely to ease over FY26e.

Price target adjustment

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has reduced its price target on Graincorp shares to A$6.80 (prev. A$7.60). 

Graincorp shares closed yesterday at $6.19 per share after the big sell-off. 

Based on this analysis, it indicates that Graincorp shares are trading roughly 9.85% below fair value. 

The broker maintained its hold recommendation. 

The post Top broker weighs in after Graincorp shares plummet 14% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Appen Ltd (ASX: APX)

The Appen share price is down 9% to $1.68. This may have been driven by profit-taking from investors after the artificial intelligence data services company's shares rocketed last week. Investors were buying Appen's shares following the release of a strong quarterly update. It reported revenue of $73.4 million. This was a 10% lift on the prior corresponding period and a 33% increase on the third quarter of FY 2025. Appen's CEO, Ryan Kolln, said: "Q4 was a strong finish to the year for both our China and Global businesses. Appen China exited the quarter with an annualised revenue run-rate growing to over $135 million – a pleasing result, providing strong momentum heading into FY26."

Brightstar Resources Ltd (ASX: BTR)

The Brightstar Resources share price is down 23% to 48.2 cents. This has been driven by the gold explorer raising funds through a major capital raising. Brightstar has received binding commitments from tier one institutional investors to raise $175 million at a discount of 50 cents per new share. Brightstar's managing director, Alex Rovira, commented: "The near-term development of our Goldfields Hub, as shown in our DFS 2.0, enables Brightstar to underpin its position as an emerging Western Australian gold producer with a significant growth profile that will generate outstanding financial metrics and unlock significant value for our shareholders."

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

The Graincorp share price is down 16% to $6.07. This has been driven by the release of guidance from the grain exporter this morning. Graincorp is now forecasting underlying EBITDA of $200 million to $240 million and underlying net profit after tax between $20 million and $50 million. These are both down materially on the prior corresponding period. The company's CEO, Robert Spurway, said: "Record global production has created an oversupply of grain, outpacing demand growth and placing downward pressure on commodity prices for the whole market. Despite strong ECA production volumes, with ABARES estimating a 2025-26 ECA winter crop of 31.2 million tonnes (mmt), the current abundance of global supply and low grain prices have reduced incentives for growers to deliver grain to market. As a result, GrainCorp is experiencing lower margins on grain handled in FY26."

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is down 7.5% to $26.78. Investors have been selling Northern Star's shares following a huge decline in the gold price on Friday night. It isn't just Northern Star that is tumbling today. Most ASX gold shares are falling heavily along with it this afternoon. This has seen the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index fall 7.1% so far today.

The post Why Appen, Brightstar, Graincorp, and Northern Star shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, GrainCorp shares are down 14.86% to $6.13, extending a difficult period for the stock.

Over the past year, the share price has struggled as global grain markets remain oversupplied and margins stay under pressure.

Let's take a closer look at the update.

What spooked investors today

In an ASX announcement released today, GrainCorp provided its first look at its FY26 earnings.

GrainCorp expects FY26 underlying EBITDA of $200 million to $240 million, reflecting softer margins across global grain markets. Underlying NPAT is forecast to be between $20 million and $40 million for the year.

Those figures exclude business transformation costs and the impact of the sale of GrainCorp Canada.

Management warned that FY26 earnings will be pressured by lower margins across the business. That reflects ongoing oversupply in global grain markets and continued pressure on export spreads.

Why margins are under pressure

GrainCorp said market conditions remain challenging across the East Coast Australia winter harvest.

Even though production volumes were strong, global grain supplies remain high. In turn, this is keeping prices low and putting pressure on margins across the supply chain.

Management noted that many growers are holding back on selling grain due to weaker prices.

As a result, GrainCorp expects margins on grain handled in FY26 to be lower, despite solid receival volumes.

Why less grain is expected in FY26

GrainCorp expects to handle between 10.1 million and 12 million tonnes of grain in FY26. This is down from 13.3 million tonnes in FY25.

The drop reflects a more normal harvest after a very strong year, along with ongoing weather uncertainty.

In its Nutrition and Energy businesses, GrainCorp expects results to be similar to FY25. However, earnings from Energy are likely to be lower due to uncertainty around US biofuels policy.

Cost control moves into focus

Management was quick to highlight cost control.

The company confirmed it is accelerating cost management initiatives while maintaining service levels to growers and customers.

GrainCorp's balance sheet remains strong, giving it flexibility to navigate softer conditions and continue executing its longer-term strategy.

Foolish Takeaway

GrainCorp shares are deep in the red today as investors react to softer margin guidance for FY26.

The outlook highlights ongoing pressure from global grain oversupply, weak pricing, and tighter export spreads. Those headwinds are likely to weigh on earnings in the near term.

However, GrainCorp still operates critical grain infrastructure and maintains a solid balance sheet. After a huge one-day sell-off, the big question is whether the market has already priced in much of the bad news.

The post GrainCorp shares slide nearly 15%. Is this ASX 200 stock now oversold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did GrainCorp report?

• FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance: $200–240 million (FY25: $308 million)
• FY26 underlying NPAT guidance: $20–50 million (FY25: $87 million)
• Export volumes expected: 5.5–6.5 million tonnes (FY25: 7.0mmt)
• Receival volumes anticipated: 11.0–12.0 million tonnes (FY25: 13.3mmt)
• Nutrition and Energy average crush margins steady with FY25
• Agri energy contribution expected to be lower due to US biofuels uncertainty

What else do investors need to know?

GrainCorp highlighted that global grain markets are experiencing oversupply and low prices, leading to multi-year low export margins and weaker financial performance. Slow grower selling on the east coast and reduced incentives for grain delivery are adding to the pressure on margins and volumes.

In response, GrainCorp is accelerating cost management measures to ensure sustainability while maintaining reliable services for growers. The company described its balance sheet as strong and reaffirmed confidence in its ongoing strategic direction. Guidance remains subject to variables like grain volumes, export timing, and oilseed margins.

What did GrainCorp management say?

GrainCorp Managing Director and CEO, Robert Spurway, said:

Record global production has created an oversupply of grain, outpacing demand growth and placing downward pressure on commodity prices for the whole market. Despite strong ECA production volumes, with ABARES estimating a 2025-26 ECA winter crop of 31.2 million tonnes (mmt), the current abundance of global supply and low grain prices have reduced incentives for growers to deliver grain to market. As a result, GrainCorp is experiencing lower margins on grain handled in FY26.

What's next for GrainCorp?

Looking ahead, GrainCorp plans to keep managing costs closely and maintain high-quality service for Australian growers during this market downturn. The company's balance sheet remains robust, supporting its long-term strategy across the food, feed, and energy value chain.

Management will update investors on further market developments, including new season opportunities late in the year. The next key update will be at the AGM on 18 February 2026.

GrainCorp share price snapshot

Ove the past 12 months, GrainCorp shares have declined 3%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post GrainCorp shares: FY26 earnings guidance forecasts lower profits appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company is an integrated grain and edible oils business. 

It is the largest grain storage and handling business in ECA and the number one edible oil processor and oilseed crusher in Australia and New Zealand.

On Wednesday, its stock price fell as much as 20%, before recovering to end the day down 12%. 

Its share price fell again on Thursday and Friday, to end the week down more than 16%. 

Why did the share price fall?

Shareholders were dumping GrainCorp shares last week after it announced the sale of non-core asset GrainsConnect Canada. 

According to the media release, GrainCorp and Zen-Noh Grain Corporation have agreed to sell their joint venture GrainsConnect to Parrish & Heimbecker for C$150 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis, following a strategic review prompted by challenging financial performance. 

GrainCorp expects to recognise a loss of approximately A$5–10 million, with no impact on its through-the-cycle EBITDA, and completion of the transaction is anticipated in the first half of 2026.

GrainCorp's Managing Director and CEO, Robert Spurway, commented:

This transaction reflects GrainCorp's ongoing commitment to portfolio optimisation and our readiness to rationalise assets where necessary to improve returns.

Divestment of GrainsConnect allows GrainCorp to focus on alternative value-creating opportunities that are in the best interests of our shareholders.

Following the sell-off, there could be an opportunity for investors to swoop in and snap these shares up at a discount. 

Here's Morgans view. 

GrainCorp shares oversold

In a note out of Morgans on Thursday, the broker said grain receivals have been lower than expected and the grain trading margin environment has deteriorated. 

We have reduced our below consensus FY26 EBITDA forecast by 7%. With payments to the insurer no longer required in big crop years, GNC's strong fixed cost leverage should return when crop production issues around the world ultimately eventuate.

The team said while GrainCorp is lacking near-term share price catalysts, it believes the stock has been oversold. 

Morgans maintains its accumulate recommendation with a new price target of A$8.05.

From Friday's closing price of $7.04, this indicates an upside of 14.35%. 

Morgans isn't the only broker suggesting GrainCorp shares could be a value. 

Macquarie has a price target of $8.30, suggesting roughly an 18% upside. 

The post What is Morgans' view on GrainCorp shares after monster sell-off? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But according to the team at Macquarie, the stock still remains undervalued, with its strong balance sheet a positive, with net cash of $321 million, and the potential for share price upside from here, along with a healthy dividend yield.

Challenging harvest 

The grain handler said in a statement to the ASX on Wednesday that both harvest volumes and grain prices were under pressure.

As the company said:

GrainCorp's FY26 receival volumes are being impacted by an expected lower year-on-year ECA crop. Prevailing commodity prices are resulting in less grain being brought to market and, together with near-record international grain and oilseed production, are continuing to place pressure on margins for grain handlers. GrainCorp's preliminary estimate of total receival volumes for FY26 is 11.0 – 12.0 million tonnes, compared to 13.3 million tonnes received in FY25.

GrainCorp said the winter crop harvest activity was largely complete in Queensland and northern New South Wales, while further south weather interruptions continued to affect the harvest.

In response to the challenging conditions, GrainCorp said it was "maintaining a strong focus on cost management while continuing to deliver industry-leading customer service and reliability''.

The company said it would provide earnings guidance at its annual general meeting on February 18.

Asset sale to notch up a loss

GrainCorp also said it had entered into an agreement to sell GrainsConnect Canada, which it would recognise a loss of $5-$10 million on.

GrainCorp Managing Director Robert Spurway said the divestment followed a strategic review of the company's assets.

He went on to say:

This transaction reflects GrainCorp's ongoing commitment to portfolio optimisation and our readiness to rationalise assets where necessary to improve returns. Divestment of GrainsConnect allows GrainCorp to focus on alternative value-creating opportunities that are in the best interests of our shareholders.

That transaction is expected to be finalised in the first half of 2026.

GrainCorp shares plummeted following the company's market updates, falling as much as 25.1% at one point to $6.70 before recovering to close at $7.09 on Wednesday.

Shares looking cheap

The team at Macquarie lowered their price target on the shares from $8.80 to $8.30 on this week's news; however, they said the company's strong balance sheet was a positive, supporting its investment needs, "healthy dividends", and the $75 million share buyback announced last financial year.

Once dividends are factored in, Macquarie is predicting a total shareholder return from GrainCorp shares of 21.2%.

They are also forecasting the dividend yield to stay healthy, predicting a 4.9% yield this financial year.

The post Macquarie tips more than 20% returns for this ASX 200 stock after a sharp sell-off this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

The DroneShield share price is down almost 12% to $2.48. This may have been driven by profit taking from some investors after a very strong gain on Tuesday. Investors were buying the counter drone technology company's shares after it announced a new contract valued at $49.6 million for a European military end-customer. The contract is for handheld counter drone systems, associated accessories, and software updates. This isn't its first contract from this customer. DroneShield revealed that it has received a total of 15 contracts from this reseller worth over $86.5 million.

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

The Graincorp share price is down 13% to $7.30. This morning, this grain exporter announced the sale of its Canadian joint venture, GrainsConnect Canada, to Parrish & Heimbecker for C$150 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis. This will lead to GrainCorp recognising a loss on sale of approximately $5 million to $10 million. Managing director and CEO, Robert Spurway, commented: "Divestment of GrainsConnect allows GrainCorp to focus on alternative value-creating opportunities that are in the best interests of our shareholders." The company also revealed that the 2025–26 east coast Australian winter harvest is now complete with receivals estimated to be 11 million to 12 million tonnes. This is down from 13.3 million tonnes in FY 2025.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

The Treasury Wine share price is down 9% to $5.01. This morning, the struggling wine giant revealed that trading conditions have worsened and its performance is below expectations. The company's new CEO, Sam Fischer, said: "We are currently experiencing category weakness in the US and China, two of our key growth markets, which will impact our business performance in the near-term. Maintaining the strength of our brands and the health of their respective sales channels is of critical importance to our Management team and our Board as we navigate through the current environment."

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside share price is down 2% to $23.49. This energy giant's shares are falling today after oil prices dropped to their lowest levels since 2021. This appears to have been driven by optimism that Russia and Ukraine will soon sign a peace deal, which could mean Russian supply returns to the market.

The post Why DroneShield, Graincorp, Treasury Wine, and Woodside shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In morning trade, the ASX 200 stock crashed as much as 20% to $6.70.

The grain exporter's shares have since recovered a touch but remain down 12% at the time of writing.

Why is this ASX 200 stock crashing?

Investors have been hitting the sell button today after it announced the sale of a non-core asset and released a weaker than expected trading update.

According to the release, GrainCorp has agreed to sell GrainsConnect Canada to Parrish & Heimbecker.

The release notes that the decision to sell the Canadian grain handling joint venture followed a strategic review triggered by the challenging financial performance at the business.

GrainCorp and its joint venture partner assessed recent results, global grain and oilseed market conditions, and structural changes in the Canadian market before determining that a sale was the most value-accretive option available

The transaction values GrainsConnect at C$150 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis, with an additional payment to be made for net working capital at completion.

GrainCorp expects to recognise a loss on sale of approximately $5 million to $10 million, though it noted that the transaction does not affect its through-the-cycle EBITDA target of $320 million

Importantly, GrainCorp will retain its Canadian marketing offices in Winnipeg, which will continue to support customers and provide market intelligence to the broader group. Completion of the sale is expected in the first half of 2026

The ASX 200 stock's managing director and CEO, Robert Spurway, commented:

This transaction reflects GrainCorp's ongoing commitment to portfolio optimisation and our readiness to rationalise assets where necessary to improve returns. Divestment of GrainsConnect allows GrainCorp to focus on alternative value-creating opportunities that are in the best interests of our shareholders

Softer outlook

Alongside the divestment, GrainCorp provided a trading update on the 2025–26 east coast Australian winter harvest, which appears to have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

The company said harvest activity is largely complete in Queensland and northern New South Wales, but ongoing weather interruptions continue to affect southern New South Wales and Victoria. As a result, GrainCorp expects lower receival volumes year on year

Preliminary estimates suggest total FY 2026 receivals of 11 to 12 million tonnes, down from 13.3 million tonnes in FY 2025. GrainCorp also highlighted that prevailing commodity prices have reduced grain coming to market and, when combined with near-record global grain and oilseed production, are placing continued pressure on margins for grain handlers

An update on its earnings guidance will be provided at its annual general meeting in February.

The post Guess which ASX 200 stock is crashing 20% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did GrainCorp report?

• Sale of GrainsConnect Canada JV to Parrish & Heimbecker for C$150 million (cash-free, debt-free basis)
• GrainCorp expects to recognise a loss on sale of approximately A$5–10 million
• Preliminary FY26 receival volumes estimated at 11.0–12.0 million tonnes (FY25: 13.3 million tonnes)
• No impact to through-the-cycle EBITDA of A$320 million
• Full earnings guidance to be provided at AGM on 18 February 2026

What else do investors need to know?

The GrainsConnect sale follows a strategic review after a period of challenging financial performance for the joint venture. GrainCorp and its partner considered several alternatives before deciding on the sale as the most value-positive option.

GrainCorp's Canadian marketing offices in Winnipeg are not part of the transaction and will continue operations, maintaining support for customers and delivering market insights to the wider team.

Harvest activity for the 2025–26 winter crop is mostly complete in Queensland and northern NSW, but weather disruptions continue in other regions. The company is focusing on cost management due to lower expected crop volumes and ongoing margin pressure.

What did GrainCorp management say?

Robert Spurway, Managing Director and CEO said:

This transaction reflects GrainCorp's ongoing commitment to portfolio optimisation and our readiness to rationalise assets where necessary to improve returns. Divestment of GrainsConnect allows GrainCorp to focus on alternative value-creating opportunities that are in the best interests of our shareholders.

What's next for GrainCorp?

Completion of the GrainsConnect transaction is anticipated in the first half of 2026, pending standard conditions. GrainCorp says it remains focused on cost control and supporting customers, with further clarity on earnings to be announced at the February AGM.

While crop receival volumes are down due to market and weather pressures, the company's core EBITDA guidance is unchanged. GrainCorp's strategy includes ongoing optimisation of its portfolio and supporting its Australian and global agribusiness operations.

GrainCorp share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, GrainCorp shares have risen 12%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post GrainCorp sells GrainsConnect Canada and updates on FY26 crop volumes appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

With that in mind, we look at three such large-cap passive income shares Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expects should deliver gains of 7% to 12% atop their attractive dividend yields.

Two agribusiness ASX 200 shares to buy today

First up, we have agribusiness Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD).

Elders shares closed on Thursday trading for $7.33 each. That sees the Elders share price up 2% in 2025. The ASX 200 share also trades on a partly franked 4.9% dividend yield.

Looking to the year ahead, Macquarie has an outperform rating on Elders shares.

According to the broker:

Optimism from the company re FY26 outlook evident at recent result with first 6 weeks of trading +30% vs pcp (pre Delta, EBIT basis) on improvement in seasonal conditions. Delta adds c$40m of EBIT on our forecasts and underpins our expectation for EBIT growth of 49% next 12 months.

15% return on capital target in focus with benefit from streamlined NWC, less bolt-on M&A activity and as come to end of SysMod transformation programme. Medium-term, we think ELD offers good earnings growth potential with cyclical rebound, Delta synergies (conservative) and further organic growth.

Macquarie has a price target of $8.25 on Elders shares. That represents a potential upside of more than 12% from current levels, not including dividends.

Which brings us to the second ASX 200 share to buy that Macquarie expects to outperform, rival Aussie agribusiness Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC).

Graincorp shares closed on Thursday trading for $8.19 each. This puts the Graincorp share price up 12% in 2025. Graincorp stock also trades on a market-beating, fully franked 5.9% dividend yield.

Macquarie noted:

GNC balance sheet/returns metrics compare well to peers. Particularly in Ag sector, a strong balance sheet affords flexibility to sustain investment requirements and capital returns even volatile cycle. GNC has demonstrated these characteristics over the past 2-3 years as grain prices and earnings have fallen from peak levels.

We expect FY26 EBITDA -1% vs pcp on fall in east coast grain vols (albeit remain near record levels) amid constrained margin environment. Recent corporate activity across broader infrastructure space a reminder of value inherent in GNC assets.

Macquarie has an $8.80 price target on Graincorp shares. That represents a potential upside of more than 7% from yesterday's closing price, not including those upcoming dividends.

Also tipped to outperform

The third ASX 200 share you may wish to buy today in preparation for the new year is Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI).

Shares in the mining and infrastructure solutions provider – which is also the world's largest commercial explosives manufacturer – closed on Thursday trading for $24.01.

This sees the Orica share price up a whopping 45% in 2025. Orica shares also trade on a 2.4% unfranked dividend yield.

And Macquarie expects more outperformance from Orica in the year ahead.

According to the broker:

We fct a positive earnings outlook (10% CAGR eps next 3 years) coupled with a strong bal sheet. At 17.5x FY27e, PE ORI trades at 4% PE rel discount to ASX100 vs ~4% L/T premium and a slight discount to DNL's 18.1x (FY27 first year post-fert for DNL). Gold is ORI's largest end market commodity (26% of rev) with exposure via explosives, cyanide and Axis (latter more exploration driven).

At FY25 result ORI lifted medterm earnings growth targets for Specialty Mining Chemicals (SMC) to high-single digit EBIT growth (mid-single digits prior) & Digital to middouble digits (low-double digits). Other focus areas inc duration of CF supply outage at Yazoo city: force majeure declared and ORI has lined up alternate supply but likely additional cost.

Commod price evolution (gold prices likely supported near term) and activity drivers across Nth Am Q&C, mining and coal sectors also in focus.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on Orica shares with a $25.95 price target. That's more than 8% Thursday's close. And again, it doesn't include the upcoming 2026 dividends.

The post Macquarie names 3 top dividend-paying ASX 200 shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Wednesday following a solid night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 8 points or 0.1% higher this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.45%, the S&P 500 is up 0.25%, and the Nasdaq is 0.65% higher.

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session after oil prices fell overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.1% to US$58.67 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 1.15% to US$62.45 a barrel. This was driven by oversupply concerns.

Hold Graincorp shares

The team at Bell Potter thinks that Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares are fully valued at current levels. This morning, the broker has reaffirmed its hold rating and $8.50 price target on the grain exporter's shares. It said: "Wheatcast yield indicators imply a crop broadly consistent with a year ago and GNC should benefit from the removal of CPC outflows and GrainsConnect losses (+$50m YOY). Against this global grain supply remains high (limiting marketing returns) and crush margins appear to be a modest YOY tailwind."

Gold price falls

It could be a poor session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Wednesday after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.1% to US$4,229 an ounce. Traders were taking profit after a strong rebound in the precious metal.

Buy Beacon shares

Bell Potter thinks investors should be buying Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (ASX: BLX) shares. This morning, the broker has initiated coverage on the specialist retailer's shares with a buy rating and $3.35 price target. It said: "On an FY26e P/E basis (~20x), we view BLX's leading market position in a fragmented market (~12% market share) and vertically integrated business model (FY25 GM ~69%) as attractive and unique characteristics for a specialty goods retailer. We believe the business is well positioned to take advantage of a recovering retail environment, supported by a strong housing market and construction outlook."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Morgans has updated its ratings and 12-month price targets on three ASX agriculture shares following their FY25 reports.

Let's take a look.

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) 

Nufarm is an agricultural chemical and seed-technology company with clients all over the world.

The Nufarm share price is $2.39, down 2.85% today and down 34% in the year to date.

Morgans has a buy rating on Nufarm shares with a 12-month price target of $3.20 following the company's FY25 results.

The broker commented:

While NUF's FY25 result was weak, it was slightly above guidance.

A solid Crop Protection result was overshadowed by a poor Seed Technologies performance. Gearing was far too high at 2.7x, however it was better than feared. Outlook comments were upbeat.

In FY26, material earnings growth and a reduction in leverage ratios is expected. We have upgraded our forecasts. Now that there is certainty on Seed Technologies future, industry operating conditions have improved and there is a clear pathway to deleveraging the balance sheet, we upgrade NUF to a Buy recommendation and A$3.20 price target.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)

Elders supplies all types of farming products, as well as advisory, financial, and real estate services.

The Elders share price is $7.28, up 0.14% on Tuesday and up 1% for 2025.

Recently, the broker retained its buy rating on Elders after the company released its FY25 results.

Morgans says there are many drivers in FY26 that should enable Elders to deliver strong growth.

The broker upgraded its price target on the ASX agriculture share from $8.50 to $8.65.

Morgans commented:

ELD's FY25 result was in line with its guidance. As was well guided too, the 2H25 was weak due to drought.

Outlook comments were optimistic, the 1Q26 is off to a strong start and FY26 should benefit from a positive rainfall outlook, higher selling prices, acquisitions and the transformation projects.

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

Graincorp offers grain handling, storage and logistics services, as well as trading and marketing. It also processes oilseeds to produce vegetable oils and other food products.

The Graincorp share price is $8.09, up 0.4% today and up 9.6% in the year to date.

Morgans thinks this ASX agriculture share has been oversold following an 8.4% decline over the past month.

The broker maintained an accumulate rating on Graincorp shares with a new price target of $9.05 following the company's FY25 results.

Morgans said:

While it can be argued that the FY25 P&L result was lower quality due to one-offs, operating cashflow was materially stronger than expected, underpinning GNC's strong core cash position.

This allowed the company to reward shareholders with an attractive final dividend.

In line with the recent outlook commentary from its international peers, GNC said that the margin environment will likely remain subdued in FY26. Consensus estimates were therefore too high.

Importantly, payments to the insurer will no longer occur in big crop years, allowing GNC's strong fixed cost leverage to return when crop production issues around the world ultimately eventuate.

The post 3 ASX agriculture shares just re-rated by experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) experienced significant fluctuations last week.

The US market wobbled and the ASX 200 followed suit, hitting a near six-month low before closing 2.52% lower for the week.

Bell Potter described a "sharp derating" of tech stocks, with the sector the worst performer of the week.

Tech shares fell 4.07% amid persistent fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

Additionally, both the technology and financials sectors fell to six-month lows as expectations of a US interest rate cut faded.

Australian wages and jobs data released last week did nothing to change expectations that our cash rate will stay on hold as well.

The markets are currently pricing a 6% chance of a rate cut in December, and Betashares chief economist David Bassanese said the "benign" wages and jobs data "should not shift the needle significantly either way regarding the RBA outlook for interest rates".

Bell Direct market analyst, Sophia Mavridis described last week's volatility:

… the Australian share market dropped to a near six-month low before rebounding.

The benchmark ASX 200, which lost around $220 billion dollars in cumulative value over the last four weeks, found critical support after a week of global uncertainty.

Now, the drop was driven by mounting concerns over lofty technology valuations and a general global risk-off mood ahead of key US earnings.

However, the mood shifted following a blowout earnings report from us chip giant Nvidia, which eased the global fears of an impending AI bubble pop and sparked a major relief rally …

However, that relief rally on Thursday was short-lived, with fear returning to the market on Friday and ASX 200 shares falling 1.59%.

ASX 200 still expensive, says fundie

Over the past month, the ASX 200 has fallen by more than 7% after hitting a record of 9,115.2 points in mid-October.

Despite the fall, experts say the market is still expensive.

Blackwattle Investment Partners said the ASX 200 is trading on a 21x forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.

This compares to a 10-year average of about 16x.

Consumer staples shares led the ASX sectors last week

Amid the volatility, it was fitting that consumer staples, one of the market's most defensive sectors, came out on top.

The share price of the sector's largest company, Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), fell 0.57% to $28.08.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares rose 0.54% to $22.43.

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price rose 1.52% to $9.36.

The share price of liquor retailer and hotels owner Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV) fell 0.27% to $3.66.

The ASX 200's largest pure-play wine share, Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) fell 3.12% to close at a 52-week low of $5.58.

IGA network owner Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS) fell 2.08% to $3.76 per share.

ASX 200 agriculture share Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) recovered 5.76% to close at $8.45 apiece.

This followed a near-10% fall the week before after the company's FY25 report disappointed investors.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA) shares fell 0.51% to close at $5.90 on Friday.

The Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) share price lifted 8.61% to $7.57 on the back of a strong FY25 report released on Tuesday.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here's how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

The post Why did the ASX 200 dive to a near six-month low last week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's the view of analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), which are tipping the ASX 200 stock to deliver market-beating returns over the next 12 months.

What is the broker saying?

Macquarie notes that the grain exporter released its FY 2025 results this week. It notes that Graincorp's performance was a touch softer than expected due to weakness in crush margins. It said:

Result impacted by ongoing weakness in crush margins (higher local sourcing costs & elevated global crush) which weighed on earnings. More broadly, supply chain margins at cyclical lows on ample global grain prod'n; this is likely to persist into FY26 absent significant supply shocks (Nth Hemisphere harvest from May CY26 important in this regard). Notwithstanding margin pressure, GNC delivered solid AgBiz result with EBITDA +33% vs pcp and +3% vs the street; cost control & ex-wheat opportunities key features.

The broker was full of praise for the way management has been able to navigate the lower margin environment. It expects the company's good cost control to be supportive of earnings growth in the coming years. Macquarie adds:

GNC has shown good ability to manage lower margin environment over last 12 months, eg, chickpea & canola seed exports in 1H. In our view another year of above avg ECA cropping should present export and earning opportunities, partly offsetting headwinds from lower crop prod'n & compressed margins. Further, cost control and build of benefits from transformation programme additive to earnings over FY26-28.

Time to buy

According to the note, Macquarie has retained its outperform rating on the ASX 200 stock with a trimmed price target of $8.84 (from $9.20).

Based on its current share price of $7.98, this implies potential upside of almost 11% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, the broker is forecasting a fully franked 5.3% dividend yield in FY 2026, which boosts the total potential return beyond 16%.

Overall, Macquarie thinks that its shares are undervalued and that investors should be buying the dip. It concludes:

Retain OP. Sharp share price reaction on fairly modest earnings miss. We think stock offers value considering robust dividend yield, cash generation & exposure to east coast grains production through its privileged asset base which has latent value & infrastructure qualities in our view.

Valuation: SoTP-based TP -4% to $8.84 ($9.20 prior) on change to earnings and reduced multiple in N&E biz to reflect pressure in crush margins. Ballast to TP is provided with thru-cycle earnings & asset replacement valuations. Catalysts: FY26 guidance at Feb AGM, progress of 2025/26 winter harvest currently underway, evolution of offshore grain prices.

The post Macquarie tips 16% return for this ASX 200 stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to sink

The Australian share market looks set to end the week deep in the red Friday following a selloff in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 140 points or 1.6% lower this morning. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is currently down 1.55%, the S&P 500 is 1.7% lower, and the Nasdaq is sinking 2.4%.

Oil prices rise

It looks like it could be a decent finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.45% to US$58.75 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.55% to US$63.07 a barrel. Traders were buying oil on the belief that it had been sold off this week.

Hold Graincorp shares

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares are fully valued now according to analysts at Bell Potter. In response to the grain exporter's results release, the broker has retained its hold rating with a reduced price target of $8.50. It said: "Our Hold rating is unchanged. Wheatcast yield indicators imply a crop broadly consistent with a year ago and GNC should benefit from the removal of CPC outflows and GrainsConnect losses (+$50m YOY). Against this global grain supply remains high (limiting marketing returns) and crush margins appear a modest YOY tailwind."

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor finish to the week after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1% to US$4,171.3 an ounce. The market is now ruling out an interest rate cut in the US in December.

Buy Orica shares

Now could be a good time to buy Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI) shares according to Bell Potter. In response to the commercial explosives company's FY 2025 result, the broker has retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $26.00. It said: "ORI is well positioned to deliver EBIT growth in the short-to-medium term, underpinned by cyclical tailwinds in mining and exploration markets. EBIT growth will also be supported by further premium product uptake, strong facility performance across AN and sodium cyanide supply networks and commercial discipline."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.