The GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price is in focus today after the company released its FY26 earnings guidance, forecasting underlying EBITDA of $200–240 million and underlying NPAT between $20–50 million, both lower than FY25 results.
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What did GrainCorp report?
- FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance: $200–240 million (FY25: $308 million)
- FY26 underlying NPAT guidance: $20–50 million (FY25: $87 million)
- Export volumes expected: 5.5–6.5 million tonnes (FY25: 7.0mmt)
- Receival volumes anticipated: 11.0–12.0 million tonnes (FY25: 13.3mmt)
- Nutrition and Energy average crush margins steady with FY25
- Agri energy contribution expected to be lower due to US biofuels uncertainty
What else do investors need to know?
GrainCorp highlighted that global grain markets are experiencing oversupply and low prices, leading to multi-year low export margins and weaker financial performance. Slow grower selling on the east coast and reduced incentives for grain delivery are adding to the pressure on margins and volumes.
In response, GrainCorp is accelerating cost management measures to ensure sustainability while maintaining reliable services for growers. The company described its balance sheet as strong and reaffirmed confidence in its ongoing strategic direction. Guidance remains subject to variables like grain volumes, export timing, and oilseed margins.
What did GrainCorp management say?
GrainCorp Managing Director and CEO, Robert Spurway, said:
Record global production has created an oversupply of grain, outpacing demand growth and placing downward pressure on commodity prices for the whole market. Despite strong ECA production volumes, with ABARES estimating a 2025-26 ECA winter crop of 31.2 million tonnes (mmt), the current abundance of global supply and low grain prices have reduced incentives for growers to deliver grain to market. As a result, GrainCorp is experiencing lower margins on grain handled in FY26.
What's next for GrainCorp?
Looking ahead, GrainCorp plans to keep managing costs closely and maintain high-quality service for Australian growers during this market downturn. The company's balance sheet remains robust, supporting its long-term strategy across the food, feed, and energy value chain.
Management will update investors on further market developments, including new season opportunities late in the year. The next key update will be at the AGM on 18 February 2026.
GrainCorp share price snapshot
Ove the past 12 months, GrainCorp shares have declined 3%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.
