In morning trade, the Champion Iron share price is down 0.76% to $5.19. The decline comes as broader ASX weakness weighs on sentiment after weekend peace talks between the United States and Iran failed to produce an agreement.

That wider risk-off move appears to be dragging the stock lower alongside the market, despite what is otherwise a strategically positive acquisition update.

The company's completion of the Rana Gruber deal is still likely helping limit the downside, with the shares remaining up about 23% over the past 12 months.

European expansion deal officially closes

According to the release, Champion has finalised the settlement of its recommended cash offer for Rana Gruber, completing the acquisition.

The deal was completed at NOK 79 per share, valuing Rana Gruber at roughly NOK 2.93 billion, or close to US$290 million based on the original terms announced in December.

This gives Champion ownership of a long-life iron ore asset in Norway with direct access to European customers and exposure to premium high-purity concentrate products.

Rana Gruber currently produces more than 1.8 million tonnes per year of high-grade iron ore. It has also been progressing a 65% Fe product upgrade, which aligns with growing demand for cleaner steel inputs.

Why the deal may be limiting the downside

The deal adds a second operating hub alongside Champion's flagship Bloom Lake mine in Quebec.

It means the company is no longer relying on just one operating region. It also gives it established customer relationships across Europe, where green steel supply chains are becoming a bigger long-term focus.

Management also noted that the transaction is expected to be earnings, EBITDA, and cash flow accretive on a per-share basis in the near term.

That may be helping keep the sell-off relatively modest today, even as broader market weakness drags most ASX stocks lower.

At current levels, Champion is valued at roughly $2.79 billion and trades on a dividend yield above 4%.

Foolish Takeaway

Champion's latest rise indicates investors see the Rana Gruber acquisition as a genuine growth move.

The move expands its premium iron ore exposure into Europe, adds diversification beyond Canada, and strengthens its position in lower-carbon steel supply chains.

If management delivers on its expected earnings uplift, this deal could end up being one of the bigger moves in the ASX materials space this year.

Personally, I would still only allocate a small portion of funds here, as I prefer ASX businesses with broader growth drivers and less reliance on iron ore pricing.

The post Why this ASX 200 iron ore stock is holding up in today's sell-off appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Champion Iron report?

• Acquired 92.48% of Rana Gruber's issued shares at NOK 79 per share in cash
• Total purchase price of approximately US$300 million
• Funded the deal with cash, a US$100 million private placement, and a new US$150 million term loan
• Expected near-term accretive impact on Champion's revenue, EBITDA, and cash flows
• Rana Gruber produced over 1.8 million tonnes of high-purity iron ore in 2025
• Champion to proceed with compulsory acquisition of remaining shares and delisting Rana Gruber from Euronext Oslo Børs

What else do investors need to know?

The Rana Gruber deal broadens Champion Iron's product portfolio, giving it access to new high-purity hematite and magnetite iron ore concentrate blends. Rana Gruber's proximity to key European customers complements Champion's Bloom Lake operations and is set to enhance sales diversification.

The expanded group will benefit from competitive all-in sustaining costs, access to renewable power, and a strong track record of cash flow generation. Champion has refinanced part of its US$400 million revolving credit facility to support the transaction, with key lenders participating.

What did Champion Iron management say?

Champion's CEO, David Cataford, said:

The closing of this transaction marks a defining milestone for Champion. Combining our businesses strengthens our leadership as a sustainable supplier of high-purity iron ore produced with a low-carbon footprint, while preserving the culture, expertise, and pride that define both companies. Rana Gruber's proximity to European customers complements Bloom Lake's high-purity products and its Direct Reduction Pellet Feed project, currently in the commissioning phase. We look forward to working closely with Rana Gruber's team to unlock value for our stakeholders and continue to positively impact our host communities.

What's next for Champion Iron?

Champion plans to complete the compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares in Rana Gruber and delist it from the Oslo exchange. Management aims to integrate Rana Gruber, collaborate on sales strategies, and extract synergies from the combined asset base. There's a shared focus on supporting the green steel sector, further grade improvements, and delivering value to both companies' communities and employees.

In the near term, Champion expects the deal to boost its revenue, earnings, and operational cash flow per share while maintaining financial leverage at prior levels.

Champion Iron share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Champion Iron shares have risen 23%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 16% over the same period.

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The post Champion Iron finalises acquisition of Norway's Rana Gruber appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After initially plunging almost 2% this morning, the ASX 200 pared back those losses and ended up closing 0.74% lower today. That loss leaves the index at 8,365.9 points.

This coldwater start to the trading week for Australian investors comes after a tough end to the American trading week on Saturday morning (our time).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was hit hard, falling by a horrid 0.96%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was hit even harder, dropping 2.01%.

But let's get back to this week and the local markets now with a look at how the various ASX sectors handled today's trading conditions.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Champion Iron report?

• Champion Iron's voluntary cash offer for Rana Gruber reached minimum acceptance, with 90.07% of shares tendered.
• The offer price is NOK 79 per Rana Gruber share.
• Champion Iron may acquire all remaining shares via compulsory acquisition under Norwegian law after completion.
• Completion of the offer remains subject to other closing conditions.
• Champion Iron operates the Bloom Lake Mining Complex and holds multiple strategic iron ore assets.

What else do investors need to know?

Champion Iron's acceptance milestone means it is set to acquire a controlling stake in Rana Gruber, a move that could reshape its position in the high-grade iron ore segment. The company intends to carry out a compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares once all conditions are fulfilled.

This deal builds on Champion's established presence in Québec's iron ore industry, with assets like Bloom Lake and a 51% interest in the Kami Project, highlighting its continued growth in premium iron ore products. Investors should note that completion still hinges on other customary closing conditions.

What's next for Champion Iron?

Assuming all closing conditions are met, Champion Iron aims to finalise the acquisition and integrate Rana Gruber into its operations. The company signalled plans to undertake a compulsory acquisition of any remaining shares under Norwegian law.

Champion's broader strategy remains focused on high-grade, low-contaminant iron ore production, investing to upgrade and expand its processing capacity. Investors can expect continued focus on operational growth and international market reach.

Champion Iron share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Champion Iron shares have declined 1%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 12% over the same period.

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The post Champion Iron secures 90% acceptance for Rana Gruber takeover appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By the time the markets closed this Wednesday, the ASX 200 had risen by another 0.59% after staying in green territory all session, leaving the index at 8,743.5 points. 

This happy hump day for the local markets comes after a nervous morning over on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) was volatile, but ended up closing 0.072% lower.

Things were a bit better for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC), though, which overcame its own shakiness to finish 0.0051% higher.

But let's get back to the Australian share market now and see what was happening amongst the various ASX sectors today.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Champion Iron report?

• Raised US$100 million via a private placement of 26,795,921 subscription receipts to La Caisse at US$3.7319 per receipt
• Proceeds earmarked to help fund the voluntary cash tender offer for all shares in Rana Gruber ASA
• Post-transaction, La Caisse's stake in Champion Iron rises to approximately 8.5% on a non-diluted basis
• Dilution to existing shareholders of about 5.0% (non-diluted)
• Funds will be released from escrow once the minimum acceptance condition for the tender offer is satisfied

What else do investors need to know?

The private placement proceeds are currently held in escrow and will only be released once key conditions of the Rana Gruber acquisition are met. If the offer lapses or is not completed, the funds (plus interest) will be returned to La Caisse.

Upon conversion, La Caisse is entitled to a customary capital commitment fee and will be compensated for any dividends paid by Champion Iron between the placement's closing and the issue of ordinary shares. The company's overall ownership structure will see a modest shift with La Caisse further investing in Champion Iron's trajectory.

What's next for Champion Iron?

Champion Iron is focused on advancing the Rana Gruber acquisition, using the placement proceeds to help secure the deal and expand its asset base. With a strong balance sheet and the backing of a major institutional investor, the company continues to invest in higher-grade iron ore products and ongoing capacity upgrades at Bloom Lake.

Champion's strategy aims to strengthen its position as a premium iron ore supplier, benefiting from growing demand for high-grade, low-contaminant iron ore products globally. Investors will be watching for progress on the Rana Gruber offer and updates on the next steps in Champion Iron's expansion plans.

Champion Iron share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Champion Iron shares have risen 6%, tracking in line with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

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The post Champion Iron raises US$100 million for Rana Gruber acquisition appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The miner delivered record quarterly sales and income for the three months to 31 December 2025.

It reported: 

• Quarterly revenue of $472 million, up 30% year-over-year
• Net income of $65 million; earnings per share of $0.12
• EBITDA of $152 million, up 73% from the prior-year period
• Record iron ore sales of 3.9 million dry tonnes, an 18% increase
• C1 cash cost per tonne lowered to $73.9, down 6% from a year ago
• Cash balance (excluding restricted funds) of $245 million at quarter-end

However following these results, investors exited their positions, with Champion Iron losing 3.13% on Friday. 

ASX materials stocks have been firing over the last year.

The S&P/ASX 200 Materials (ASX: XMJ) is up 40% in that span. 

However Champion Iron has largely missed out on this bull market, rising just 5.95% in that same period. 

Fresh analysis from Bell Potter

The team at Bell Potter released a new report on this ASX materials stock on Friday. 

Key takeaways from the previous quarter from the broker included: 

• Production & sales: Strong quarterly production and record sales, with higher plant recoveries offsetting harder ore; improved rail performance drove a material reduction in site and port inventories.
• Pricing: Realised prices broadly stable vs index, though still impacted by higher exposure to discounted spot iron ore sales ahead of DRPF term contracts.
• Costs: Unit costs improved quarter-on-quarter, reflecting lower maintenance subcontractor costs and fixed-cost leverage from higher volumes.
• Cash flow: Cash declined C$80m QoQ to C$245m; operationally near breakeven pre-growth capex and dividends, with working capital a drag due to higher receivables and lower payables.

The broker also said a critical decision during the previous quarter was the announcement of a US$289m transaction agreement to acquire Rana Gruber ASA. 

Rana Gruber is a producer of high-grade iron ore operating in Norway's Dunderland Valley with production of over 1.8Mtpa and five year average trailing EBITDA of US$80m (US$50m in 2024). 

The transaction is expected to close by mid-2026 and will be funded via a US$100m private placement to investment group Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and a fully committed US$150m term loan with Scotiabank. 

Bell Potter said transaction benefits include increased scale, diversification, blending capabilities, and EBITDA and cash flow per share accretion.

Hold recommendation

This ASX materials stock closed trading last week at $5.88 per share. 

In Friday's report, Bell Potter maintained its hold recommendation. 

The broker also lowered its price target to $5.55. 

Based on this rating it appears Friday's sell-off was justified as this stock is trading slightly above fair value. 

The price target from the broker indicates a downside of approximately 5.6%. 

The post Why did this ASX materials stock tumble after reporting record profits? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Champion Iron report?

• Quarterly revenue of $472 million, up 30% year-over-year
• Net income of $65 million; earnings per share of $0.12
• EBITDA of $152 million, up 73% from the prior-year period
• Record iron ore sales of 3.9 million dry tonnes, an 18% increase
• C1 cash cost per tonne lowered to $73.9, down 6% from a year ago
• Cash balance (excluding restricted funds) of $245 million at quarter-end

What else do investors need to know?

Champion Iron is advancing its DRPF project at Bloom Lake to produce direct reduction pellet feed iron ore, with commissioning underway and first shipments expected by the end of June 2026. The company also reduced site stockpiles by 1.1 million tonnes during the quarter, despite some logistical setbacks, and maintains strong liquidity of $751 million to fund growth and operations.

In December, Champion announced a cash tender offer to acquire Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber for around US$289 million, backed by La Caisse and Scotiabank. This deal would broaden the company's high-grade iron ore portfolio. Work on the company's Kami Project definitive feasibility study, in partnership with Nippon Steel and Sojitz, also continues with completion targeted for year's end.

What did Champion Iron management say?

CEO David Cataford said:

I am proud of our team's ingenuity and perseverance as we advance strategic initiatives designed to unlock value for our stakeholders in the coming months and reinforce our leadership in the high-purity iron ore industry. We expect to continue to benefit from sales of high-purity iron ore inventories previously stockpiled at Bloom Lake. New markets will become available as we initiate shipments of DR quality iron ore from our DRPF project in the near term. Additionally, we remain focused on the potential closing of the Rana Gruber acquisition, which will diversify our portfolio with another proven high-purity iron ore operation, as well as the anticipated completion of the Kami project definitive feasibility study, leveraging our partnership with Nippon Steel and Sojitz. As our multi-year growth capital investment cycle at Bloom Lake nears completion, we continue to rigorously evaluate growth opportunities and capital allocation strategies to optimize shareholder returns.

What's next for Champion Iron?

Champion's near-term priority is completing the DRPF project at Bloom Lake, targeting first commercial shipments of DR-quality iron ore by the middle of 2026 to tap new market opportunities. The company also aims to finalise the Rana Gruber acquisition, expanding its asset base and diversifying production locations.

Investors can also keep an eye on the progression of the Kami Project's feasibility study and management's strategy to optimise inventory management and capital allocation as the Bloom Lake expansion cycle winds down.

Champion Iron share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Champion Iron shares have risen 8%, running slightly ahead of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

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What did Champion Iron report?

• Entered a conditional agreement to acquire 100% of Rana Gruber ASA at NOK 79 per share
• Transaction valued at approximately NOK 2,930 million (US$289 million)
• Financing includes a US$100 million private placement from La Caisse and a US$150 million term loan from Scotiabank
• Rana Gruber generated NOK 333.5 million (US$32.9 million) profit and NOK 592.3 million (US$58.4 million) EBITDA in the trailing four quarters
• Champion to fund acquisition through equity, debt, and existing cash
• Expected near-term accretive impact for Champion Iron shareholders

What else do investors need to know?

The deal brings a long-life asset in Norway to Champion Iron's portfolio, expanding its high-grade iron ore offering and enhancing product and customer diversification, particularly in Europe. The production upgrade at Rana Gruber to 65% Fe iron ore concentrate positions both companies to target the green steel supply chain.

Champion expects to maintain its financial leverage ratios at closing, with all financing structured to avoid material impact on its balance sheet. Rana Gruber's management will stay with the company, supporting a smooth transition and local community ties.

Regulatory approval is needed before the deal officially launches, with completion expected in the second quarter of 2026. Key shareholders and the board of Rana Gruber have recommended the offer.

What's next for Champion Iron?

Champion will now move through the regulatory process, seeking approval of the offer document, with the acceptance period likely starting in late January 2026. If all goes to plan, Champion expects to complete the takeover by the second quarter of the 2026 calendar year.

The acquisition will add Rana Gruber's high-grade and specialty iron ore output and European customer base to Champion's operations, potentially setting up the company for long-term growth in the decarbonising steel sector. Champion will also continue developing its Canadian iron ore assets and pursue organic growth projects.

Champion Iron share price snapshot

Over the pas 12 months, Champion Iron shares have risen 2%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

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The post Champion Iron launches $289m Rana Gruber takeover: what shareholders need to know appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here's why they are rising:

Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA)

The Champion Iron share price is up 10% to $5.44. Investors have been buying this iron ore miner's shares following the release of its quarterly update. Champion Iron reported production of 3.6Mt and record sales of 3.9Mt. This underpinned quarterly revenue of $493 million and EBITDA of $175 million. Champion's CEO, David Cataford, said: "We successfully capitalized on rising iron ore prices by delivering robust quarterly financial results, while completing our scheduled semi-annual maintenance at our site and on the third-party railway. I'm especially proud of our teams' commitment to operating Bloom Lake sustainably while optimizing operations and advancing the DRPF project towards its completion."

Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX: CRN)

The Coronado Global Resources share price is up almost 15% to 33.2 cents. This has been driven by the release of the coal miner's third quarter update. Coronado reported growth across all key production and sales metrics during the three months. This includes a 21% increase in saleable production (its highest since 2021) and a 9% increase in sales volumes. The company's CEO, Douglas Thompson, said: "Following the record ROM production in June to end Q2, our operations continued the positive momentum and had another strong quarter. Q3 delivered material increases in all production and sales metrics. Saleable production was our highest since Q1 2021 and we again improved costs for another quarter."

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

The Megaport share price is up 3.5% to $16.26. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Macquarie. According to the note, the broker has reaffirmed its outperform rating on this network as a service provider's shares with an improved price target of $18.50. It said: "Top-line is stabilised, with new customer logo growth a strong positive signal. Reinvestment in growth will drive top-line acceleration out of FY26. Product roadmap suggests MP1 will move more into software with edge compute, driving higher long-term margins. Retain Outperform."

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is up 11.5% to $47.26. Investors have been buying the mining and mining services company's shares following the release of its first quarter update. Mineral Resources reported a solid performance across its businesses. As a result, it believes it is on track to meet FY 2026 volume and cost guidance across all divisions.

The post Why Champion Iron, Coronado, Megaport, and Mineral Resources shares are racing higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to tumble

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Friday following a poor night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 61 points or 0.7% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was down 0.75%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq edged slightly lower.

Oil prices fall

It could be a subued finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) after oil prices dropped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.8% to US$69.42 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.95% to US$72.55 a barrel. This appears to have been driven by trade tariff concerns.

ResMed results

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) shares will be on watch today when the sleep disorder treatment company releases its fourth quarter and full year results. A strong result is expected, so the team at Bell Potter will be focusing more on what management says. It explains: "What we are watching. Update and commentary on existing product approvals in RoW (AirSense11) and new product launches."

Gold price eases

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a relatively soft finish to the week after the gold price edged lower overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.2% to US$3,345.3 an ounce. This was despite tariff uncertainty ahead of Trump's 1 August deadline.

Buy Champion Iron shares

Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA) shares were sold off on Thursday following the release of the iron ore miner's quarterly update. Bell Potter believes this has created a buying opportunity. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $5.40 price target on Champion Iron's shares. It said: "Production was impacted by ore hardness, as CIA had previously flagged and likely to persist until 2H FY26. Gross realised prices averaged US$106/t against the P65 index of US$108/t; revenue was C$390m (BP est. $394m), EBITDA C$58m (BP est. $76m, VA consensus $85m (range C$55-111m)). […]  While current geopolitics has shifted the focus away from carbon emissions, we ultimately expect government policy in CIA's target markets (EU) and the growth in DRI steel production to be supportive. We expect free cash flow will continue to support dividends."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Three broker buy ratings that you might want to know more about are summarised below. Here's why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:

Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA)

According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts have retained their buy rating on this iron ore miner's shares with a trimmed price target of $5.40. The broker is expecting a reasonably solid quarterly update from Champion Iron this month. It is forecasting production of 3.5Mt and sales of 3.7Mt. This will be up from 3.2Mt and 3.5Mt, respectively, in the previous quarter. Bell Potter also highlights that FY 2026 will be a transition year for the company. The broker believes its shift into higher grade production from 2026 will support improved prices and earnings amid an iron ore price environment generally expected to weaken. In addition, it expects Champion Iron free cash flow to improve from 2026 with major capital programs completed. This should be supportive of generous dividends. The Champion Iron share price ended the week at $4.70.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

A note out of UBS reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $310.00 price target on this biotechnology giant's shares. UBS points out that CSL's shares are trading at just 20x forward earnings. The broker feels that this makes them cheap, especially given that it is forecasting a mid-teen earnings per share compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next few years. It expects this to be driven partly by margin expansion in the key CSL Behring business. The CSL share price was fetching $257.38 at Friday's close.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

Analysts at Bell Potter have also retained their buy rating on this uranium producer's shares with an improved price target of $9.20. According to the note, Bell Potter believes that Paladin Energy's shares could re-rate in the coming quarters as it shakes off negative earnings sentiment over FY 2025. In addition, the broker highlights that coming out of the fourth quarter result, the market should have a better understanding of mining rates, ore performance, and sales contracts. It feels that this, combined with a reshuffle in its leadership, should provide a boost to investor sentiment heading into FY 2026. The Paladin Energy share price ended the week at $7.82.

The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Three top ASX shares that leading brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here's why they are bullish on them:

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP)

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their buy rating on this financial services company's shares with an improved price target of $1.65. The broker has been looking into AMP's new digital only bank offering and is positive on its outlook. In fact, it appears to see it as the key to improving the returns from its struggling banking business. Outside this, the broker has boosted its earnings for AMP to reflect mark to market changes. The AMP share price is trading at $1.48 on Monday afternoon.

Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA)

A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating on this iron ore miner's shares with a trimmed price target of $5.40. Bell Potter is expecting a reasonably solid quarterly update from Champion Iron later this month. It is forecasting production of 3.5Mt and sales of 3.7Mt. This will be up from 3.2Mt and 3.5Mt, respectively, over the previous quarter. In addition, the broker highlights that FY 2026 will be a transition year for the company. It believes its shift into higher grade production from 2026 will support improved prices and earnings amid an iron ore price environment generally expected to weaken. It also expects its free cash flow to improve from 2026 with major capital programs completed. This should be supportive of generous dividends for the foreseeable future. The Champion Iron share price is fetching $4.63 at the time of writing.

Tyro Payments Ltd (ASX: TYR)

Analysts at Morgans have retained their buy rating on this payments company's shares with a trimmed price target of $1.55. According to the note, the broker has been busy updating its earnings estimates in the financial sector after marking to market recent movements. It is expecting a solid result for Tyro Payments in FY 2025. The broker is forecasting an increase in EBITDA to $66 million for the year. In light of this, Morgans thinks that its shares are being undervalued by the market at just 6 times EV/EBITDA. As a result, it sees a favourable risk/reward on offer for investors at present. The Tyro Payments share price is trading at 92 cents today.

The post Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall again on Monday after a poor finish to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 13 points or 0.15% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 0.6%, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.2% lower.

Oil prices rise

It could be a good start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rose on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 2.8% to US$68.45 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 2.5% to US$70.36 a barrel. Tight market conditions and potential sanctions against Russia boosted prices.

Buy Champion Iron shares

The Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA) share price could be in the buy zone according to analysts at Bell Potter. Ahead of its quarterly update, the broker has retained its buy rating on the iron ore miner's shares with a trimmed price target of $5.40. It said: "FY26 is a transition year for CIA with the shift into higher grade production from 2026 supporting improved prices and earnings amid an iron ore price environment generally expected to weaken. Free cash flow should also improve from 2026 with major capital programs completed."

Gold price storms higher

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good start to the week after the gold price stormed higher on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 1.15% to US$3,364 an ounce. Traders were looking for safe haven assets after US President Donald Trump imposed fresh tariffs on the EU and Mexico.

Buy Treasury Wine shares

The team at Bell Potter thinks investors should be buying Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares. The broker told The Bull that it thinks its valuation is compelling at current levels. It said: "Despite a recent earnings downgrade driven by weakness in the US premium wine market and distributor disruptions in California, TWE's valuation now looks compelling. The DAOU Vineyards acquisition is delivering strong synergies and growth, which partially offsets softness in legacy brands."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set to rebound on Thursday following a positive night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 47 points or 0.55% higher this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped 0.95%.

Oil prices flat

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session after oil prices traded largely flat overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is a fraction lower at US$68.32 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is flat at US$70.15 a barrel. This was driven by a surprise build in US crude inventories.

Hold Lifestyle Communities shares

The Lifestyle Communities Ltd (ASX: LIC) share price is close to being fair value now despite crashing almost 40% on Wednesday. According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts have retained their hold rating with a heavily reduced price target of $5.00 (from $8.55). It said: "What we viewed as a rocky road ahead appears all the more challenging now, demonstrated by the SP reaction today. While LIC will challenge the decision, and now screens inexpensively vs. sector peers, potential asset write-offs, legal implications, balance sheet implications (further asset sales, potential equity requirement), retention of DMF model are all likely to weigh on LIC foreseeably."

Gold price rises

It could be a decent session for ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.15% to US$3,321.9 an ounce. The gold price rebounded after hitting a one-week low.

Champion Iron pay day

Today is pay day for eligible holders of Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA) shares. At the end of May, the Canada-based iron ore miner released its full year results and declared its eight consecutive semi-annual dividend of 10 cents per share. This equates to a 2.3% dividend yield and will be hitting shareholder bank accounts later on Thursday.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.