If you've missed the big news about the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price this month, you might just be living under a rock.
This February has been one for the CBA record books. The ASX 200 bank stock has once again hit a series of new all-time record highs, pushing its shares further into uncharted territory.
Yesterday's session wasn't kind to Commonwealth Bank, with CBA finishing the day nursing a 1.44% loss at $162.60 a share. Saying that, we only have to go back to last Friday's session to find the last time CommBank hit a new record. That was $167.92 a share, which exceeded the previous all-time high of $167.61 that was hit just one day prior.
Although the bank is now well off that high, CBA shares remain up a comfortable 6.10% over just 2025 to date, as well as by almost 40% over the past 12 months.
This has been a lucrative journey for almost all Australians. Even if you don't own CBA shares directly, the bank's oversized presence in index funds like the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS), as well as our superannuation funds, means we all can be grateful for CBA's share price ascension.
However, this is also what is making me nervous.
The CBA share price can't stop hitting new records
It's no secret that most ASX experts think CBA shares are overvalued at their current heights.
As it stands today, the bank is sitting on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.67.
That would be a decent valuation if CBA was growing at a healthy clip. However, it's hard to make that case.
In its most recent half-year earnings, which we got a look at just last week, CBA revealed that its operating income rose by 3% to $14.1 billion over the six months to 31 December. That helped boost the bank's cash net profits by 2% to $5.13 billion.
Now those are… fine numbers. But enough to justify a 40% share price spike over the past 12 months? Not really, in my view anyway. Particularly when we consider that CBA's FY2024 full-year results showed falling income and profits.
CBA's current valuation is better understood when compared to other shares. For one, investors are today being asked to pay a 100% premium on each dollar that CBA brings in compared to what its fellow big four bank stock, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), makes.
Yep, ANZ shares are currently at a P/E ratio of 14.23. With CBA at an earnings multiple of 28.67, it can literally be considered twice as expensive as ANZ right now.
Some other shares that are cheaper than this ASX 200 bank stock…
Let's list some other companies that are cheaper on a P/E basis to CBA right now. Of course, there's Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW).
But also Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL), and Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV).
If we look at the US markets, the contrast is even more stark. US stocks that are currently cheaper than CBA include globally dominant companies like Coca-Cola Co (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ: PEP), but also American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). The latter is often regarded as one of the best banks in the world.
Even Google-owner Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL) is cheaper than CBA with a current P/E ratio of 24.2. Bear in mind that Alphabet reported a 12% rise in revenues and a 28.3% spike in net income during its most recent quarterly earnings report this month.
So yes, I am nervous about CBA shares. It seems that the only thing holding up the company right now is goodwill and good vibes. Certainly not fundamental growth numbers. If the bank does come back down to earth, it will be bad news for everyone's index and super funds. Let's see what happens over the rest of 2025.
