National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares closed 0.85% higher on Tuesday afternoon, at $47.46 a piece. For the year-to-date the banking giant's shares are 11.93% higher.
NAB has been the best-performing ASX bank stock over the past 12 months. It has outpaced its peers Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corporation Ltd (ASX: WBC) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), and also other mid-tier regional bank stocks.
NAB, and the other big-four major banks, have been in the spotlight over the past 12 months after the sector soared in value in 2025 thanks to high interest rates and high-cost of living.
NAB also reported stronger-than expected profits in its first quarter FY26 earnings result last month. The banking giant revealed a 15% hike in its cash earnings and a 6% increase in revenue.
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So, if I bought $5,000 worth of NAB shares 12 months ago, what are they worth today?
At the time of writing, NAB shares are a whopping 42.78% higher than 12 months ago.
For context, CBA shares are 21.75% higher, Westpac shares are up 38.81% and ANZ shares have hiked 30.81% over the same period.
The current share price means that an investor who bought $5,000 worth of NAB shares 12 months ago would now have $7,139!
Any investors who bought the same amount of shares 5 years ago would now be sitting on double those returns. A 83.03% five-year increase means $5,000 would now be worth a huge $9,154.
Can NAB shares keep climbing at the same rate?
Unfortunately, it's probably unlikely.
Although some analysts haven't given up hope just yet.
TradingView data shows that four out of 16 analysts still have a strong buy rating on NAB shares. Another six have a hold rating and six have a strong sell position on NAB's stock.
The maximum target price is $50.64, which implies a potential 6.7% upside at the time of writing.
But some also think NAB shares could sink 11.71% to $41.90. Or worse, plummet 36.79% to just $30 a piece.
Is there any reason for investors to buy NAB shares?
Analyst forecasts are mixed, but there are other reasons that NAB shares are still a good investment option.
The ASX bank stock is a good, stable option for investors seeking passive income. It's a defensive stock which is able to remain stable in times of economic crisis.
The NAB share price typically trades at a lower price-earnings (P/E) ratio than other sectors, which means investors are able to earn a higher dividend yield. The bank paid an annual dividend per share of $1.70 in FY25, which was 1 cent per share higher than FY24. This is forecast to be $1.705 per share in FY27 and $1.72 per share in FY28.
