Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are fairly flat in Tuesday lunchtime trade. At the time of writing, the ASX bank stock is down 0.1% to $175.35.
Despite today's softer share price, CBA stock is still 8.83% higher for the year-to-date and 21.22% higher over the year.
CBA shares spiked over 12% in 48 hours mid-February after the bank posted an unexpectedly-positive half-year FY26 result. Since then, the bank shares have remained in the spotlight but have been relatively stable.
But I don't think the latest share price gains will continue. CBA shares are significantly overvalued relative to its peers and aren't supported by the bank's core business strength or earnings.
At the same time, the bank is facing ongoing net interest margin pressure thanks to intense market competition and regulatory changes.
More interest rate hikes could also put even more pressure on banks to compete.
I think CBA shares will suffer more overall weakness this year. In fact, I think CBA shares could possibly crash below $100 in 2026.
The good news is that there is another ASX bank stock that analysts are tipping for huge upside.
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The ASX bank shares tipped to soar higher
Analysts expect all the big four banks' shares to drop in 2026. Data shows that experts think CBA shares carry the most downside risk, with a downside of up to 48.67% at the time of writing. This could see CBA shares tumble down to just $90 a piece.
But the outlook for Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) is another story.
Australian-based Judo Bank provides financial services and lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with annual turnovers of up to $100 million. Its business lending starts at $250,000, and it also offers personal term deposit products and home loans.
The bank was founded in 2016 and received its banking license in 2019, and was listed on the ASX in 2021. So it's relatively new in comparison to majors like CBA.
Judo Bank has also had a strong start to FY26. At its latest AGM, it said lending momentum was strong over the first quarter and that it's confident it can achieve FY26 guidance of $180-$190 million. Guidance was confirmed again when it posted its first-half FY26 results in mid-February.
The bank posted a 32% hike in net profit at $59.9 million. It also confirmed it had delivered "above system growth" in gross loans and advances, with $13.4 billion, up 7% over the half and 15% year on year.
At the time of writing, Judo Bank's shares are down 0.54% to $1.46 a piece. For the year-to-date, the shares are 18.78% higher, and they're down 23.05% over the past month alone.
Analysts aren't spooked, though. The latest strong results announcement suggests the share price plummet is likely due to investors taking their gains off the table after a strong price rally. Judo shares soared over 31% between November and early February this year.
What do the analysts expect next?
TradingView data shows 12 out of 13 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on Judo shares. The average target price is $2.25, while the maximum is $2.50 per share over the next 12 months.
At the time of writing, that implies a potential 53.67% to 71% upside for investors.
