When Aussie investors think about dividends, they typically think about ASX mining and banking stocks.
But did you know that last year it was ASX 200 utilities shares that delivered the highest dividend returns?
Utilities produce and deliver basic essential services such as electricity, natural gas, and water.
As we recently reported, the total return of the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) last year was 17.48%.
Dividends made up a considerable 7.05% of that total return — the highest of the 11 market sectors.
That's also well above the long-term average dividend yield of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is 4%.
So, what's the outlook for ASX utilities dividends this year?
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Dividend forecasts for ASX 200 utilities shares
The utilities sector is the smallest of the 11 ASX 200 market sectors. It's comprised of just 22 companies.
In this article, I'll focus on the seven largest ASX 200 utilities shares by market capitalisation.
The following table shows the consensus analysts' forecasts for 2025 dividends, as published on the CommSec trading platform.
I've calculated the dividend yields they represent based on Tuesday's closing share prices.
I have also included the dividend amounts paid in 2024 so you can compare them to the 2025 forecasts.
These ASX 200 utilities shares are listed in order of market cap from biggest to smallest.
| ASX 200 utilities share | 2024 dividend | Forecast 2025 dividend | Yield |
| Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) | 55 cents | 50.5 cents | 4.94% |
| APA Group (ASX: APA) | 56 cents | 57 cents | 8.57% |
| Mercury NZ Ltd (ASX: MCY) | 21.3 cents | 22.2 cents | 3.94% |
| AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) | 61 cents | 50.2 cents | 4.38% |
| Meridian Energy Ltd (ASX: MEZ) | 19.2 cents | 19.6 cents | 3.75% |
| Contact Energy Limited (ASX: CEN) | 33.9 cents | 35.3 cents | 4.26% |
| Genesis Energy Ltd (ASX: GNE) | 12.8 cents | 13.4 cents | 6.72% |
As you can see, APA Group is the ASX 200 utilities share expected to pay the highest dividend yield among this group of stocks in the new year.
APA is Australia's largest energy infrastructure company with a $26 billion portfolio of assets.
It owns and/or operates an extensive range of gas, electricity, solar, and wind assets.
The company will release its 1H FY25 results on 24 February.
Broker ratings on utilities shares
Macquarie has an outperform rating on APA shares with a 12-month share price target of $8.13.
The APA share price has fallen by just over 20% over the past 12 months to $6.65 per share.
My colleague, James Mickeloboro, says APA shares are worth considering for income investors while they're down.
He points out that APA is one of the most reliable dividend payers on the Australian share market with almost 20 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Goldman Sachs has a neutral rating on Origin Energy with a 12-month price target of $10.40.
Origin shares have risen by 22.5% over the past year to $10.23 per share.
While positive on the company, Goldman says the Origin share price is fully valued now.
The broker says:
ORG remains well positioned to benefit from Australia's energy transition with the NEM's largest flexible gas generation fleet, strong cash flow from APLNG, and potential upside through Octopus, though we consider the stock fully valued after recent strong performance with risk for negative consensus valuation revisions on higher cash tax payments in FY25.
Goldman Sachs also has a neutral rating on AGL shares with a 12-month share price target of $11.65.
The AGL share price closed at $11.47 yesterday. The ASX 200 utilities share is up 44% over 12 months.
