Are ASX stocks about to get an earnings upgrade boost in the new year?

The spectacular 10% jump in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) in November prompted doomsayers to predict an imminent violent crash.

Transurban share price ASX shares upgrade to buy asx 200 share price upgrade to buy represented by hand drawing line under the word upgrade

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The spectacular 10% jump in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) in November prompted doomsayers to predict an imminent violent crash.

The ASX 200 is trading at around 20 times forward price-earnings (PE) compared to its historical average of around 16 times.

Some experts believe a day of reckoning is just around the corner as too much good news is priced into the market.

ASX stocks about to receive an earnings upgrade

But there's one thing that these pessimists aren't counting on. This is a consensus profit upgrade as the economy tries to escape the pull of the COVID‐19 recession.

I know it sounds a little far fetched but the ASX being in a cum-upgrade cycle may not be such a crazy thought, according to Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).

"We still suspect analyst forecasts are too conservative, as ASX 200 earnings rose just 1% even as stock prices rose 10%," said the broker.

"All else being equal, by bringing forward the end of the pandemic, we think the positive vaccine news should have led to earnings upgrades for the December half of Calendar 2021.

"The PE spike in Covid-19 losers is likely the market signalling that EPS [earnings per share] upgrades are coming."

ASX COVID losers on an earnings upgrade path

The COVID-19 losers refer to ASX stocks that have taken the brunt of the market sell-off since the pandemic.

These include the Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) share price, the Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) and the Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield CDI (ASX: URW) share price.

Why ASX miners will also get upgraded

Another group of ASX stocks that is almost certain to be upgraded is mining. The price of iron ore spiked yesterday after Vale SA downgraded its 2020 and 2021 production guidance.

The supply shortfall is a boon to the BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price, Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price and Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG).

Analysts had been expecting the iron ore price to weaken from current levels. But the new demand-supply imbalance means this view will need to be revisited. This spells earnings upgrades for our iron ore producers.

Other tailwinds supporting the Santa Rally

But earnings upgrades aren't the only reasons to feel bullish about the near-term performance of ASX stocks.

"After the strong returns last month, there is a fear of a near-term pullback, but we could still see a Christmas rally," added Macquarie.

"Australia is well positioned with RBA QE on automatic pilot (i.e. at least $5bn per week), plus fiscal stimulus and a lack of domestic Covid-19 cases."

Ho Ho Ho, fellow Fools!

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of BHP Billiton Limited, Rio Tinto Ltd., and Webjet Ltd. Connect with me on Twitter @brenlau.

The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Share Market News

Stock market chart in green with a rising arrow symbolising a rising share price.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a massive day for the ASX 200, with a new all-time high recorded.

Read more »

A man sits thoughtfully on the couch with a laptop on his lap.
Technology Shares

This ASX tech stock rocketed 60% in March! Can it keep on delivering?

After soaring in March, the ASX tech stock is now up 169% since this time last year.

Read more »

Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

A young man clasps his hand to his head with his eyes closed and a pained expression on his face as he clasps a laptop computer in front of him, seemingly learning of bad news or a poor investment.
Share Fallers

Why Burgundy Diamond Mines, Clarity Pharmaceuticals, EML, and Zip are sinking today

These ASX shares are ending the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

A young women pumps her fists in excitement after seeing some good news on her laptop.
Share Gainers

Why Mesoblast, Newmont, Pilbara Minerals, and Platinum shares are jumping

These ASX shares are ending the week strongly. But why?

Read more »

a young boy dressed up in a business suit and tie has a cute grin and holds two fingers up.
Opinions

2 of my top ASX 200 shares to consider buying before April

I would happily exchange dollars for these two shares right now.

Read more »

Father in the ocean with his daughters, symbolising passive income.
Dividend Investing

I'd spend $8k on these ASX 200 shares today to target a $6,102 annual passive income

I believe these ASX 200 shares will continue rewarding passive income investors for years to come.

Read more »

Three businesspeople leap high with the CBD in the background.
Share Market News

Boom! ASX 200 blasts to new record highs

ASX 200 investors just sent the benchmark index into uncharted territory.

Read more »