If your email in-box is anything like mine, it has been inundated with talk about gold, and gold stocks. “Gold price can go nowhere but up…,” says one pundit on CNBC. “Outside bonds, gold is now a powerful diversifier,” says AMP Capital’s Nader Naeimi in the AFR. “Plenty of upside left in gold stocks…,” says another headline in the AFR. Yikes. I better jump on board, before it’s too late… especially as some pundits are predicting gold could jump as high as $US5,000 an ounce as central banks around the world rush to devalue their currencies. Or maybe not… Firstly, never…
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If your email in-box is anything like mine, it has been inundated with talk about gold, and gold stocks.
“Gold price can go nowhere but up…,” says one pundit on CNBC.
“Outside bonds, gold is now a powerful diversifier,” says AMP Capital’s Nader Naeimi in the AFR.
“Plenty of upside left in gold stocks…,” says another headline in the AFR.
Yikes. I better jump on board, before it’s too late… especially as some pundits are predicting gold could jump as high as $US5,000 an ounce as central banks around the world rush to devalue their currencies.
Or maybe not…
Firstly, never under-estimate the ability of usually rational people to jump on a bandwagon, piling into hot stocks right at the very top of the market. And today, there’s nothing getting hyped as much as gold, and gold stocks.
Secondly, totally ignore any forecast you see from someone who wants you to buy gold, or gold stocks. They are talking their own book.
Yes, The Motley Fool believes in the long-term wealth creation opportunities of investing in the stock market.
Yes, we offer subscription-only stock picking products as a way to help you achieve that goal.
But NO, I don’t say the ASX is headed to 10,000.
And nor do I say the Sirtex Medical (ASX: SRX) share price is headed to $50… even though it’s doing a pretty good job of getting there itself, the stock jumping another 9% higher this morning to trade at $34.
More on Sirtex — and gold — down below.
If you’ve seen our own Scott Phillips on Sky News Business, you’ll know he often answers questions by saying “I don’t know.”
And the truth is, for all those pundits making predictions about the gold price, about the intrinsic value of a stock, about where the ASX might be come the end of 2016… none of them know.
They are guessing.
And they are hoping, just like I’m hoping my BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP) shares will hit $25 at which point I’ll sell them. Only another 16% to go…
Hope isn’t a plan. Nor is buying gold or gold stocks.
Reporting season rolls on.
Blue chips continue their epic struggle to grow, the latest “no-grower” being Wesfarmers (ASX: WES), the owner of Coles, Bunnings, Officeworks, K-Mart and Target.
Worse than being a “no-grower,” Wesfarmers are actually shrinking, its underlying earnings falling by 3%… and that’s before over $2.2 billion of impairment and restructuring costs, most of which is related to Target.
And it gets even worse… Wesfarmers slashed its final dividend by over 14%.
Still, all that was expected, and Wesfarmers shares have fallen ‘only’ 2.5% in morning trade.
Frankly, I’m surprised the share price didn’t fall by more. MUCH more. It’s not as if Wesfarmers shares are cheap, trading on a forward P/E ratio of 19 times.
Nor is Wesfarmers’ 4.65% fully franked dividend yield anything to write home about, especially given the company’s limited future growth prospects.
Up until this morning, Wesfarmers shares had been a decent performer over the past 12 months, matching the market with a 4.7% gain.
That’s if you call 4.7% decent.
I don’t… although in the world of managed funds, you’ve been doing well to get a return like that over the past year.
A story in the AFR says industry super funds smashed the returns of retail funds last financial year, delivering an average 4% return versus 1.3% for the retail funds.
How very pedestrian.
But it’s largely what you get when you invest your hard-earned money into a large cap fund, one that effectively tracks the returns of the S&P/ASX 200 Index… and in the case of retail funds, charges you a pretty penny for that under-performance.
Excitement plus, hey?
No wonder people are flocking to gold… like lemmings off a cliff.
On Monday the gold price hit a two week low… not that you’d read about that from the gold bugs.
Despite gold producer Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) reporting a 65% jump in its net profit, its share price has slumped over 25% in the past 6 weeks…. not that you read about that from the forces spruiking gold stocks.
Each to their own, of course.
And for me, that’s growth stocks. Yes, you’ll need to pay up a little for them. But boy, when they fire, they fire.
The aforementioned Sirtex Medical is up over 430% since it was recommended as a buy for Motley Fool Share Advisor subscribers.
The buying of a stock like Sirtex is the first — and important — part of the investing process.
The holding is where you can make the really big bucks.
That’s where our own Scott Phillips has excelled. He’s recommended subscribers to his Motley Fool Share Advisor service hold on to their Sirtex shares for years, advice that has seen the share price jump over 430% higher.
It’s easier said than done, of course. Volatility shakes out many an unsuspecting and uncommitted investor.
But not Scott Phillips. He has nerves of steel.
As for what’s next for the Sirtex share price, Scott Phillips doesn’t know. To him, it doesn’t even matter if Sirtex shares are $30 or $50 by this time next year.
What matters to him is the company has a long growth runway ahead, has a good management team, and has a strong competitive advantage. Over time, the share price will sort itself out.
Sirtex ticks all Scott’s boxes.
That said, Scott currently only rates Sirtex as a hold, saying the share price has much of that future growth already priced into it.
The holy grail of stock market investing is buying a growth stock at a value price.
I’m not talking about a stock trading on a P/E of 10. Companies trading on those sorts of valuations are cheap for a good reason (and it’s never a good reason).
I’m talking about a stock trading at a value price in comparison to its future growth prospects.
Tomorrow morning, Scott will reveal the name of one such ASX company, exclusively to Motley Fool Share Advisor subscribers. It’s one of his most gutsy and boldest calls yet.
Based on Scott’s exceptional track record, the odds of another big winner are firmly on your side. I can’t wait to see how this one plays out.
If you are interested in quality dividend shares, then I would recommend this top dividend share instead. A strong yield and potential share price gains make this a great investment idea in my opinion.
Our Top Dividend Stock for 2016
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Bruce Jackson has an interest in Wesfarmers, Telstra and BHP Billiton.