The ASX 200 airline share has lifted 7.15% in the year to date (YTD) compared to a 4.9% bump for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Qantas may have outperformed the ASX 200, but it's delivered lower capital growth than many other ASX 200 large-cap shares in 2025.

There are 60 large-caps in total (market caps above $10 billion) trading today and 32 have delivered positive capital growth this year.

Of those 32 ASX 200 large-caps, the best performer is ASX 200 gold stock Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) with 133.5% capital growth.

The large-cap with the lowest capital growth is Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Ltd (ASX: SOL) shares with 1.8% growth.

So, Qantas ranks towards the bottom of this list with 7.15%.

What about dividends?

Of course, dividends are an important part of total returns alongside capital growth.

Qantas paid a full-year FY25 dividend of 52.8 cents per share (cps).

Based on the current Qantas share price of $9.77, that's a trailing dividend yield of 5.4%.

The consensus estimate among analysts on CommSec is for Qantas to pay a full-year FY26 dividend of 42.9 cents per share.

This equates to a forward dividend yield of 4.4%.

That's quite a drop, but still higher than the average dividend for ASX 200 shares these days.

So, when will you find out for sure what Qantas shares will pay in dividends next year?

Helpfully, Qantas has released its financial calendar for 2026.

Get your diary out.

Looking ahead to 2026

Here are the dates for Qantas investors to note.

Qantas will release its 1H FY26 results and announce its interim dividend on 26 February.

The airline has not specified the ex-dividend dates for 2026, but they are usually one business day before the record dates.

The record date for the interim dividend will be 11 March.

Qantas will pay the dividend on 15 April.

The ASX 200 airline will announce its FY26 full-year results and final dividend on 27 August.

The record date for the final Qantas dividend will be 16 September.

Qantas will pay the dividend on 14 October.

The annual general meeting is scheduled for 6 November.

Should you buy Qantas shares?

UBS has a buy rating on Qantas shares with a 12-month price target of $11.50.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy rating last month but lowered its price target from $13.40 to $12.60.

Ord Minnett has a buy rating but also cut its price target last month from $13.80 to $13.

The post Own Qantas shares? Here are the dividend dates for 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The price of the metal has soared by about 47% since the start of January to reach all-time highs earlier this month.

But gold is not the only metal commanding attention.

Silver and platinum have both outpaced the gold price in 2025, as has neodymium – a rare earth element used in magnets that power modern-day electronics.

And then there's copper.

The red metal has been making waves of its own on the back of two significant developments in September.

Copper enters the spotlight

Firstly, mining titan Anglo American plc (LON: AAL) unveiled plans to merge with Canadian counterpart Teck Resources Ltd Class B (NYSE: TECK) in an A$85 billion deal.

This tie-up is set to create the world's fifth-largest copper producer.

And just last week, Freeport-McMoran Inc (NYSE: FCX) announced that mining at its globally significant Grasberg mine in Indonesia is set to remain on hold following a tragic mudslide.

Freeport noted that the mine closure will see its copper output fall by 4% in the third quarter of 2025.

It added that its Indonesian production could be 35% lower in 2026 when compared with pre-incident forecasts.

In turn, the price of copper traded on the London Metals Exchange (LME) spiked on Thursday.

It surpassed US$10,300 per tonne to reach its highest level so far this year.

But this could be just the beginning, according to renowned investment bank Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS).

The broker believes that the copper price could storm higher throughout the rest of the year and into 2026.

And here's the thing.

Mining giant BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has been ramping up its copper exposure in the past few years to become today's largest copper producer.

So, a favourable copper pricing environment could be welcome news for BHP shares.

Morgan Stanley's viewpoint

Morgan Stanley appears optimistic about the near-term copper price after factoring in Freeport's production setback, as reported in the Financial Review.

It expects supply of the metal to dip in 2025 and 2026, adding that inventory levels outside the US also remain low.

The broker cited several other factors that suggest a positive setting for copper prices.

These include a weakening US dollar, a Federal Reserve more tolerant of inflation, and hopes of further economic stimulus in China.

Overall, Morgan Stanley believes the LME copper price could reach US$13,775 per tonne by Christmas, and as high as US$14,064 per tonne by the end of 2026.

This implies about 37% upside potential for the copper price by the conclusion of next year.

What could this mean for BHP shares?

In a nutshell, a sharp rise in the copper price could potentially be a boon for BHP shares.

In the past few years, the company has sealed a series of copper deals headlined by its A$10 billion acquisition of South Australian miner Oz Minerals.

It also invested A$3.2 billion to acquire Canadian group Filo Corp and its flagship Argentinian project through a joint venture with Lundin Mining Corp (TSE: LUN).

These deals add to BHP's extensive portfolio of copper mines across Chile, Peru, South Australia, and Arizona.

BHP now claims to be the world's largest copper miner, having grown its output of the metal by 28% over the past three years.

It produced a record 2 million tonnes of copper in FY25, with the metal accounting for 45% of its underlying operating earnings (EBITDA).

Looking ahead, management noted that copper fundamentals remain attractive.

In essence, BHP expects global copper demand to grow from about 33 million tonnes today to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.

However, it believes copper prices need to increase from the levels seen in the second half of FY25 for future supply to be incentivised.

The post BHP shares in pole position as Morgan Stanley flags 37% upside for this critical metal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

First off the rank are the big banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC).

Corporate earnings

In recent weeks, forecasters have become increasingly pessimistic about US corporate earnings. For the first quarter of 2025, analysts now expect growth of 6.7% for the S&P 500 companies, according to Bloomberg. When Trump was first elected back in November, this number sat around 11%. 

For the full year, analysts expect profits to rise 9.4%, which is materially lower than the projected 12.5% at the beginning of the year. 

Investors will also be paying close attention to forward guidance. Management is likely to come under the microscope during the investor calls as analysts interrogate them on the potential tariff impact and broader consequences for the global economy. 

In particular, JP Morgan's earnings and investor call will be closely watched. CEO Jamie Dimon was the first CEO of a major bank to publicly address Trump's tariffs. 

In his 7 April annual letter to shareholders, he wrote:

Whatever you think of the legitimate reasons for the newly announced tariffs – and, of course, there are some – or the long-term effect, good or bad, there are likely to be important short-term effects. We are likely to see inflationary outcomes, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices, as input costs rise and demand increases on domestic products. Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth.

This reflection is especially noteworthy, given that he had initially dismissed the potential long-term impact of tariffs. Now that Trump has paused retaliatory tariffs for all countries except China, investors will be interested to hear whether these changes impact Jamie Dimon's assessment of the economy.

A big month ahead for US-focused ASX ETF investors

The Magnificent Seven companies will report their earnings towards the end of the reporting season (late April and early May). These companies represent a large portion of the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC). Therefore, investors in US-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as the iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF (ASX: IVV) and the BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) will be paying close attention. 

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which is due to report on 22 April, is likely to attract major interest. After taking a role in the Trump administration earlier this year, Tesla CEO Musk will be under the spotlight. This week, Musk also appeared to break with Trump by endorsing free trade between America and Europe. This should make for an especially eventful Tesla earnings call. 

Another company likely to attract strong interest is Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL). The iPhone maker is scheduled to report on 1 May. Apple produces more than 90% of its products in China and has been under the microscope since Trump announced his tariffs. This week, the company briefly lost its spot as the world's largest listed company as its shares took a hit. However, it has since reclaimed its spot. Investors will be tuning in to see what CEO Tim Cook has to say.

One of the last companies to report is Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA). The chip maker will report on 28 May. After appearing unstoppable for the past few years, Nvidia's stock price has been on a roller coaster this year. It was down nearly 40% for the year to date before regaining 19% on Wednesday night. Investors will be keen to hear CEO Jensen Huang's views on DeepSeek and any potential tariff impact. 

Foolish Takeaway

There's been no shortage of action on US markets in recent weeks. This should set the stage for an especially interesting reporting season. Over to the banks!

The post US reporting season kicks off tonight appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But let's talk about what's happening with the Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price.

Qantas shares are happily defying the broader market to push higher this session. The ASX 200 travel stock and national carrier closed at $9.29 a share yesterday afternoon and opened at $9.30 this morning. But soon after market open, Qantas stock pushed as high as $9.37 a share.

Not only is that a new 52-week high for the airline, but a new all-time record high. Not bad for a company that has been around for more than a century (albeit only a few decades on the ASX).

Qantas stock is not the only prominent ASX share that has received a boost today. This Wednesday's trading session has been kind to Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares, which hit a new 52-week high of their own ($4.09) this morning as well.

But back to Qantas, today's rise puts the Qantas share price up a healthy 4.25% in 2025 so far. The Flying Kangaroo is also up a whopping 76% or so over the past 12 months. So this has been a very lucrative investment to hold in recent times indeed. For investors who picked up Qantas shares for under $2.20 each back in the depths of the COVID crash of 2020, they would now be up more than 300%.

Check that all out for yourself below:

Why is the Qantas share price at a new record high today?

Well, that's a bit of a mystery. We haven't had any major news or announcements out of Qantas itself for quite a while. The last major news ticked came out back in mid-December.

As we covered at the time, this wasn't even positive news, with the airline revealing it had agreed to pay out a compensation package worth $120 million to workers who were allegedly illegally fired during the COVID pandemic.

However, it is possible that investors are taking their leads from brokers when it comes to the Qantas share price.

The airline has been the beneficiary of some broker love in recent weeks. As we discussed late last month, broker Morgan Stanley has been telling clients to buy the carrier, giving Qantas an 'overweight' rating. Morgan Stanley also gave the Qantas share price a 12-month price target of $10.50, which implies a potential upside of around 12.7% from current prices.

The broker anticipates that Qantas will benefit from lower fuel prices in 2025, which should allow the airline to continue its share buybacks and even reinstate a dividend this year.

So perhaps this rosy outlook is driving investors into Qantas stock in 2025 so far, and specifically this Wednesday. Let's see how much higher Qantas shares fly from here.

The post Big ASX news! Qantas share price flies to new all-time high appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

With the August earnings season now truly done and dusted, many companies are sitting on large piles of cash, which analysts and investors alike are eyeing very closely.

Brokers have identified several big names in the ASX 200, including Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC), JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), and REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA), are sitting on massive piles of excess franking credits.

But what does that mean for shareholders? Let's see what the experts think.

Franking credits and special dividends

When a company pays ASX dividends, the franking credits attached represent the tax it has already paid on its profits.

That's because the Australian dividend imputation system ensures that these profits aren't taxed twice – once in the company's hands and once in the investors'. Instead, it is just at the company level.

Franking credits can offset shareholders' tax obligations. If an investor's tax rate is lower than the company's (usually 30%), they can even receive a refund.

However, companies can accumulate large amounts of franking credits over time, especially if they don't distribute them regularly through dividends.

Often, when companies find themselves in this situation with no option to reinvest the money internally, they return it to shareholders as a special dividend.

Typically, dividends are recurring and follow a fairly normal pattern of payment, such as every half-year period.

But special dividends are a one-off payout, usually because the business has a sudden influx of surplus cash.

Special dividends also allow companies to distribute accumulated franking credits while still retaining enough capital for reinvestment and growth.

The question is, which companies that pay ASX dividends fit the bill here?

ASX dividends for investors

To this point, Morgan Stanley has been busy on the case, scouring the investment universe of ASX dividends.

The broker has released a report identifying the ASX 200 companies with the largest excess franking credit balances. Morgan Stanley had this to say (as reported in the Australian Financial Review):

The recent result season showed an emerging trend for companies with excess franking credits to start paying special dividends.

We expect this to increase over time given limited options to distribute post rule changes to buybacks and highlight companies with largest balances as a starting point.

Analysts at the firm highlighted Rio Tinto, Ramsay Health Care, JB-Hi Fi, Mineral Resources and REA Group as the top five companies with franking credits higher than their last reported dividend per share.

The broker says these companies have a significant capacity to issue special dividends, should their boards choose to do so.

Meanwhile, Plato Investment Management said the decision to pay a special dividend with franking credits was a little more nuanced. Per the AFR:

[The decision has] still got to be in the context of do they have the cash to pay them out and if they've got a high capex budget.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), for instance, has to reinvest high sums of cash to stay competitive. As such, it "can't really afford" a big jump in dividends, Plato says.

Foolish takeaway

According to Morgan Stanley, the trend of companies paying special ASX dividends to distribute excess franking credits could increase over time.

Time will tell if the broker is correct or not. In the meantime, investors can look to companies with excess franking credits with a positive light.

The post Special dividends anyone? 5 ASX 200 stocks with excess franking credits appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The stock's last yearly low was $24.93 apiece on 8 August, and shares are now down 24% this year.

This downtrend is a part of a broader decline in oil prices this year. Concerns over weak demand and an oversupplied market are weighing heavily on energy stocks like Woodside.

Let's take a closer look.

Oil prices slump, dragging Woodside shares down

The global benchmark for oil, the Brent crude oil price, has continued its downward spiral in recent weeks.

Brent currently trades at US$71.88 a barrel, its lowest level since 2021.

According to Trading Economics, fears of a slowdown in the United States and soft economic growth in both China and Europe have been major factors in the slump.

Meanwhile, the US oil industry continues to produce near-record levels of oil, adding to global supply.

In response to this macroeconomic backdrop, Morgan Stanley has cut its oil price forecasts.

The broker now expects Brent crude to average US$75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Australian Financial Review.

This is down from an earlier forecast of US$80 per barrel.

Similarly, Citigroup has warned of a potential oversupply. It estimates prices could drop as low as US$60 per barrel by 2025 unless production cuts are started.

This sharp fall in oil prices has hit Woodside shares hard, with the stock down nearly 5% in the past month.

Analysts divided

Analysts are split on the outlook for Woodside shares. Morgans has a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $33 per share.

According to my colleague James, Morgans reckons the company's healthy balance sheet and strong dividend profile make it an attractive investment, especially at these lower levels.

Based on current prices, Morgans is forecasting fully franked dividend yields of around 8% for FY2024.

However, not all analysts are as bullish. Citi recently downgraded Woodside to a sell rating, slashing its price target to $24.50 per share.

Citi analysts are concerned about falling dividends and the potential for further costly acquisitions, warning that Woodside's downgrades might not be over yet.

Foolish takeaway

Woodside shares are trading at new 52-week lows as the oil market faces continued pressure from weak demand and ample supply.

While some analysts see this as a buying opportunity, others remain cautious.

The Woodside share price is down 37% in the past year.

The post Woodside shares burn to 52-week low as oil price outlook worsens appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Over in the United States, companies like Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) have been major beneficiaries since entering the AI foray. Both stocks are up 144% and 19% this year to date, respectively.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) is another AI stock riding the wave, but right here on the ASX in Australia.

Life60 shares are trading more than 120% higher this year to date, offering investors comparable gains to Nvidia. They are currently swapping hands at $16.70 apiece at the time of writing.

As AI continues to revolutionise various industries and with many shares still rallying, it begs the question of whether it is still worth buying Life360 to capitalise on the AI stock surge. Here's what the experts think.

Why consider this ASX AI stock?

Life360 shares were a major ASX performer in FY24, rallying more than 115% in that period. With the backdrop of AI driving positive sentiment, many brokers are still bullish on the AI stock.

According to CommSec, the consensus of analyst estimates is that it is a strong buy. Here are the main reasons brokers say to buy Life360 shares.

1. Adoption of its technology

The company is leveraging AI to enhance safety and connectivity for families worldwide through its mobile app of the same name.

The app provides real-time location updates, safety alerts while driving, and rapid emergency responses. It doesn't take great imagination to see the benefits of this feature.

And this hard-to-replicate business advantage is pulling through to Life360's financials. Revenues increased by 15% year over year in Q1, reaching US$78.2 million. This growth was driven by a jump in premium subscriptions and reduced churn rates The company put this down to the expansion of its safety features.

Bell Potter analysts are optimistic about Life360 due to the potential expansion of the technology. It recently retained its buy rating on the AI stock with a price target of $17.75. It believes the company has the potential to leverage its large and growing user base to enter and disrupt new markets.

2. Data collection possibilities

The app helps track children, elderly individuals, and those with special medical needs. This broad user base provides valuable data that can be used to fuel AI-driven innovations.

Morgan Stanley analysts see vast data collection capabilities as a competitive advantage for Life360. The company's subscriber base is around 66 million users, which is a tonne of a lot of insights.

The thinking is that Life360 can glean unique and actionable insights from these data points. Data is like digital gold in the modern age, so it's not surprising to see Morgan Stanley's posture so upright on this with the AI stock.

Solaris Investment Management's chief investment officer, Michael Bell, also praised Life360's growth, highlighting that the app has more than 2 million paying circles, ahead of expectations.

3. Future outlook

It's worth noting that Life360 is exploring monetisation opportunities through advertising.

Following its acquisition in 2021, the integration of Tile within the core Life360 subscription model could drive higher conversion rates and lower churn over time. This could also support subscription revenue growth.

Goldman Sachs analysts project the same outlook and estimate that Life360 is exposed to a total global addressable market (TAM) of US$12 billion. In a May note, it saw significant opportunities for the AI stock to expand its product suite and grow average revenue per paying circle (ARPPC).

The broker notes that Life360's subscription business trades at a discount to global peers despite its superior growth outlook.

It rates Life360 a buy:

The company is now scaling margins and earnings rapidly off a low base, with attractive unit economics and potential structural profitability tailwinds on the horizon from a reduction in effective app store fees.

Life360's Subscription business currently trades at a discount to global subscription app peers when adjusting for its superior growth outlook.

We see scope for re-rating as Life360 demonstrates operating leverage, ongoing subscription growth and user monetisation via ads. We are Buy rated on Life360.

Is this AI stock a buy?

Life360's innovative use of AI, robust financial performance, and significant growth potential could make it an attractive option for investors looking to profit from the AI stock surge. Brokers are bullish, and the stock continues its ascent in FY25.

However, as with any investment, it's essential to consider your risk tolerance and investment goals. While Life360 appears poised for continued growth, there's no certainty it will get there. Investors should always weigh the potential rewards against the risks and seek professional advice when necessary.

The post Should I buy Life360 shares to profit from the AI stock surge? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Of course, we know that what the experts predict will happen next year may or may not eventuate.

As investors, we understand that the proverbial can hit the fan and catch us unawares at any time.

That's called a black swan, by the way. An unexpected negative event that tramples all over our stock valuations for a period. A once-in-a-century pandemic, for example. But I digress.

It's also worth remembering the old adage that investment success is not about timing the market, but time in the market. That's why The Fool advocates long-term investment as opposed to trading.

Thus, no matter what the crystal ball says about likely events next year, the timing of our investments should really come down to when it suits us personally.

That is, when we can afford it and when we have a strategy in place for long-term wealth creation.

With all that said, let's examine the views of two experts and see what they think is likely to happen with shares vs. property in 2024.

What's next for shares vs. property in 2024?

Let's start with bricks and mortar.

Our expert is Louis Christopher, the Head of Research at SQM Research. He's one of Australia's most experienced property price researchers and analysts.

Christopher has just released his annual Housing Boom and Bust Report 2024.

The especially great thing about this report is that Christopher provides a base case scenario, plus a few other scenarios, to give us a well-rounded view of what may happen to property prices under various macroeconomic circumstances. Cool, huh?

Sydney and Melbourne likely to fall

As shown in the chart above, the base case — or most likely scenario, in Christopher's view — is a cash rate of between 4.1% and 5%, continued strong population growth of 460,000 people or less (that's a bit less than 2023 growth), and Australia's unemployment rate moving to between 4.5% and 5.5%.

The alternative scenarios include a global energy crisis and much stronger population growth.

The base case sees Sydney and Melbourne home values either falling or recording anaemic growth. Christopher forecasts -4% to 0% movement for Sydney and -3% to +1% movement for Melbourne.

These two cities are typically the biggest beneficiaries of migration, and if you put continuing strong population growth together with a critical housing supply shortage, we get a reasonably effective offset against rising unemployment, which will limit how far prices may fall in each city overall next year.

But these are expensive property markets. Sydney is the most expensive, with a median house price of $1.12 million, and Melbourne is third-most pricey, with a median of $778,000, according to CoreLogic data.

That means plenty of Sydney and Melbourne householders have big home loans, and Christopher reckons the affordability challenges emanating from higher interest rates will begin to show in 2024.

However, he expects Sydney and Melbourne's prestige sector to continue to do well, benefitting from rising foreign buyer demand. In both cities, he tips apartment price growth to outperform houses.

He said:

The interest rate rises of 2022, 2023 and possibly 2024 will finally start to bite homeowners and would-be homebuyers alike. Distressed selling activity is expected to jump, especially in NSW where we are already starting to see a new trend upwards in that data set.

Canberra could get smashed while the mining capitals surge

Canberra is currently Australia's second-priciest housing market, with a median house price of $961,000.

It has decoupled from the other smaller states and territories to join Sydney and Melbourne at the top of the home valuations tree.

Christopher is tipping a fall in Canberra home values of between -8% and -4% next year. This will be due to reduced Federal Government spending and rising housing supply due to a strong pipeline of new apartment completions.

Meanwhile, Christopher predicts 5% to 9% price growth in Perth and 4% to 8% growth in Brisbane in 2024.

This would be caused by stronger commodity prices brought about by an anticipated uplift in Chinese demand for iron ore.

Most of Australia's mining activity is centred on Western Australia and Queensland, and the families of mining workers often live in the nearest capital cities, adopting a FIFO lifestyle.

Higher demand for commodities could mean more mining industry jobs and higher wages, which would then flow through to property values in the capitals.

Christopher said:

Perth and Brisbane are still very likely to record price rises based on super tight rental conditions, a better-than-expected global commodities market and minimal exposure to the financial services sector, where we believe there maybe be significant job losses.

The Adelaide and Darwin markets are likely to remain steady or record a minor price rise or correction. The base case forecast is price growth of 0% to 3% in Adelaide and -3% to +1% in Darwin.

What about rents?

Well, it's good news for landlords with residential real estate investments. Christopher tips asking rents to keep rising by between 7% and 10% across Australia next year.

He expects Perth rents to increase the most — by a whopping 12% to 15%.

By the way, we recently looked at whether soaring rents are delivering better returns than dividends for investors.

Now, let's move on to the 2024 outlook for ASX shares and how that compares vs. property.

What's the outlook for ASX 200 shares in 2024?

As my Fool colleague Tristan recently reported, top broker Morgan Stanley has a 12-month target of 7,350 points for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

The ASX 200 closed at 7,040.8 points on Friday.

We've seen sluggish capital growth of 1.36% in 2023 amid much volatility.

If Morgan Stanley has it right, ASX 200 share investors are looking at potential capital gains of 4.39% over the next 12 months.

Morgan Stanley particularly likes the look of ASX mining shares in 2024. It reasons that commodity prices will stay strong and the weaker dollar will remain beneficial, too.

As a result, the broker's model portfolio currently has larger positions in BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), energy shares, healthcare shares, and insurance shares.

Shares vs. property in 2024: Which wins on predicted gains?

Based on our expert views, ASX 200 shares are tipped to do better vs. property in 2024 in terms of capital gains.

Morgan Stanley is predicting 4.39% growth for ASX 200 shares over the next 12 months.

By comparison, Christopher's overall base case for the combined weighted capital cities is -1% to +3%.

For further reading, check out ASX shares vs. real estate investment: Which wins on 10-year returns?

The post Expert predictions: ASX 200 shares vs. property in 2024 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The broker believes a stop to the rally could come in the form of rising interest rates and a pullback in consumer spending, thus reducing corporate earnings, the Australian Financial Review reported.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has lifted 10.4% since 3 October to the present day. It's currently up 0.32% in today's trading session.

Let's cover how Morgan Stanley expects rising interest rates to affect ASX 200 shares moving forward.

What did Morgan Stanley say?

Morgan Stanley's head of Australian strategy Chris Nichol said we may not have felt the full effects of rising interest rates, which will put pressure on companies' bottom lines.

He said:

Investors should brace for impact from the lagged effects of an aggressive tightening cycle. The next six months will see fuller effects from an aggressive monetary hiking cycle impacting domestic focused earnings.

Nichol also believes consumers could be underestimating the effect that rising interest rates might have on the economy, which could be leading to a sense of overconfidence in their spending habits.

[Consumers] are not fully calibrating the true extent of the adjustment in disposable income and asset wealth ahead whilst also potentially underappreciating the job required of policymakers to achieve their goals.

The net result of rising interest rates is that housing prices could fall by as much as 20%, Nichol said. This, in turn, may finally force consumers to spend less on discretionary items, thus kicking off a recessionary cycle in the economy.

However, another expert believes ASX 200 shares could have reached their bottom and are poised to rally again.

Have ASX 200 shares bottomed out?

AMP economist Dr Shane Oliver thinks there have been some "fundamental improvements" in the backdrop of ASX 200 shares that occurred during October.

He said the main reason is that inflation appears to have peaked in the United States, dropping from a high of 9.1% in June to 7.7% year-on-year in October.

Oliver notes that with inflation easing, future interest rate hikes by the Fed are likely to be less severe, thus reducing the chance they will put the economy into a recessionary tailspin.

US equities could also be benefiting from a couple of tailwinds in the short-term, Oliver said, including US midterm elections and the fact ASX 200 shares have entered into a bullish part of the year. These cyclical factors could also be giving them a lift.

Oliver also suggested China could look to focus on growing its economy and lift COVID-zero restrictions by the middle of next year.

Summarising his position, Oliver said the following on the longer-term outlook for ASX shares:

We remain optimistic about shares on a 12-month horizon as investors will start to focus on monetary easing from late next year and then economic recovery.

The post Why ASX 200 'investors should brace for impact': Morgan Stanley appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Leading broker Morgan Stanley rates some leading S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares as buys, with compelling upside.

Many businesses on the ASX have seen their share prices drop in recent days and weeks. While there is much fear in the market about the effects of inflation and interest rates, investors may also be able to find some long-term opportunities.

Brokers can give a helpful hint about which ASX 200 shares could be worth owning at these prices, so let's look at two of the buy-rated picks.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Goodman is one of the largest property businesses on the ASX. It has a global portfolio of properties and projects in the industrial real estate sector.

Morgan Stanley currently rates it as a buy ( or 'overweight') with a price target of $25.98. That implies a potential rise of more than 40% over the next year. One of the key factors that the broker likes about Goodman is its growing rent, which has been increasing at a pleasing pace over the last several years.

As an example, in the company's FY22 third-quarter update, Goodman revealed a 12-month rolling like-for-like net property income (NPI) growth of 3.7%. It also had a five-year weighted average lease expiry (WALE), giving the business income visibility.

Another thing that Morgan Stanley likes is the ASX 200 share's property development pipeline. It said that the concentration of its workbook in desirable locations has allowed it to increase its development work in progress (WIP) to $13.4 billion. Completions for the nine months to 31 March 2022 were $4.7 billion, with $6 billion in total expected for FY22.

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL)

Sonic Healthcare is a large pathology healthcare business. It has operations in a number of countries including Australia, the US, and Germany.

It's currently rated as a buy ('overweight') by Morgan Stanley. The price target is $40, implying a possible rise of around 20%. The broker points to COVID-19 testing as a positive for earnings in FY22.

The company's COVID-19 testing operations are expected to give FY22 earnings a boost, as they did in FY21. However, the broker is expecting Sonic's earnings to return to a more normal level in FY23. With that in mind, the Sonic Healthcare share price is valued at 10 times FY22's estimated earnings and 16 times FY23's estimated earnings.

The company said within its FY22 half-year result release that it's expecting a "sustainable level of COVID-19 testing into the future, including routine COVID testing, screening programs, variant testing, whole genome sequencing and antibody tests".

However, Sonic's base business revenue is also rising. HY22 base revenue was up 4.3% year on year and up 2.5% compared to HY20 (which was before COVID-19).

A bonus is that Morgan Stanley is expecting the company to keep increasing its dividend over the next couple of years, which matches Sonic's 'progressive dividend policy'.

The post Buy these 2 quality ASX 200 shares: broker appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

During the COVID-19 crash of early 2020, the Telstra share price did not fall as dramatically as many other ASX shares did.

Over the last month, Telstra shares have dropped around 2% while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share price has declined around 6% in that time.

Telstra generates relatively consistent profit and cash flow every month, thanks to the essential nature of its services to Australians.

But inflation and interest rates rising present a different conundrum for investors compared to a global pandemic. Is the telecommunications business an opportunity?

Broker opinions on the Telstra share price

As one of the biggest businesses on the ASX, there are plenty of analysts that look at the company.

One of the most recent ratings comes from the broker Morgan Stanley, with a price target of $4.60 and a buy rating. That implies a possible rise that's comfortably more than 10%.

One of the reasons for its optimism is that in the US, 5G telco peer T-Mobile is seeing good operational progress with customers quickly taking to fixed wireless home internet. So far, the changing economic environment in the US is not hurting consumer demand for telco services.

Another broker that rates Telstra as a buy is Ord Minnett. The price target is $4.50, also implying more than 10% upside. One of the positives that the broker has pointed out is the potential for the telco to sell more of its telco tower assets.

Recent updates

One of the major ways that investors like to value businesses is by looking at the profit direction.

Telstra is now expecting its profit to start rising after years of being impacted by the shift to the NBN.

A few months ago, the company said in its T25 strategy to FY25 that it's expecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of mid-single digits for underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and a high-teen growth rate for underlying earnings per share (EPS).

In the recent FY22 half-year result, the company reported "strong" mobile growth with EBITDA rising 25%, post-paid average revenue per user (ARPU) rising 5%, and post-paid services increasing by 84,000.

It also reported that underlying EBITDA rose 5.1% to $3.5 billion, while underlying EPS went up 55% to 6.2 cents.

The company said that it is continuing to see growth in the mobile market on the back of its investment in customer-centric plans.

Telstra also boasts that its 5G network is now more than twice the size of Telstra's nearest competitor, with more than 77.5% of the population covered and almost 2.8 million 5G devices connected to its mobile network.

The business has also made other moves, such as the acquisition of the Digicel Pacific company. Digicel Pacific has 2.5 million customers and leading businesses in PNG, Fiji, Vanuatu, Tonga, Nauru, and Samoa.

Telstra dividend

The board of Telstra has an intention to grow its dividend over time, as earnings and cash flow grow.

At the current Telstra share price, it's expecting to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.8%.

The post Is the Telstra share price a safe haven buy right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Recent research by Morgan Stanley found that social media usage on some platforms has dropped sharply relative to levels at the end of 2020 when more consumers were staying at home. A reopening economy, therefore, may have an inverse relationship on some aspects of user engagement for some social media platforms. But one social media company, in particular, may actually benefit from a reopening economy: Snap (NYSE: SNAP) -- the parent company of photo- and video-sharing app Snapchat.

Sure, Morgan Stanley did say in its report that it believed one of Snapchat's in-app products -- Snapchat Discover -- saw a drop in engagement recently compared to levels in December 2020. But Discover, which helps keep users up-to-date on current events and find content from pop culture, influencers, and more, is just one feature of the Snapchat experience. Peer-to-peer engagement and total advertising revenue on the app, however, are likely both thriving.

Improving user engagement

Interestingly, Snap management said in the company's first-quarter earnings call that it saw "inflection points" in story posting, engagement with its Snap Map, and the rate of new friendships as the economy started to reopen in February. "We designed Snapchat to be a useful complement to real-life friendships and are excited about these optimistic trends developing with our audience," said Snap founder and CEO Evan Spiegel in the company's earnings call.

While users may not be engaging as much with content in Snap's Discover tab, increased stories from users will keep advertisers coming back to the platform.

Accelerating revenue growth

Further, though there may be some uncertainty about how a reopening economy will affect engagement across different aspects of the Snapchat experience, investors can expect one thing with near certainty: huge growth in advertising revenue. Snap's first-quarter revenue soared 66% year over year to $770 million, helping the tech company generate positive free cash flow for the first time. And for Q2, management expects even stronger growth. The company guided for revenue to grow 80% to 85% year over year. Snap's incredible top-line momentum represents both broad-based business momentum and a rebound from a period when marketers reduced or even paused ad spend as they dealt with uncertainties related to COVID-19.

A reopening economy is not only leading to an increase in Story postings from Snapchat users, but it is helping the company attract massive investment from advertisers as they try to capitalize on consumers' return to more normalcy. It's fair to say that while there may be some challenges for Snapchat as the economy reopens, it's mostly a greenfield opportunity.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post 1 social media stock likely to thrive in a reopening economy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

While metals like gold, copper and iron ore have slipped from their multi-year (or even record) highs, they remain well above where they were trading this time last year.

For example, iron ore, Australia's top export earner, is still trading for US$207 per tonne.

And that's helped convince Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to upgrade its outlook for an ASX 200 resource share that's listed on multiple international exchanges.

In this instance, the upgrade comes from Morgan Stanley's London office.

What international ASX 200 resource share did Morgan Stanley upgrade?

Morgan Stanley already has an overweight rating on ASX 200 listed BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP). Those shares, obviously, trade on the Australian Securities Exchange.

However, BHP shares are listed on major exchanges across the world, including the London Stock Exchange (LSE) where it's listed as BHP Group PLC (LON: BHP). And yesterday (overnight Aussie time), Morgan Stanley upgraded BHP Group PLC to overweight.

As the Australian Financial Review notes, London office analyst Alain Gabriel reckons BHP shares offer "generous capital returns".

Part of his bullishness on BHP is based on today's iron ore prices holding, in which case Gabriel forecasts "it's trading on a financial 2022 free cashflow yield of 23 per cent. Even at base case forecasts that's 14 per cent".

According to Gabriel (quoted by the AFR):

Shares have underperformed peers YTD by an average of 11 per cent and are implying a [long-term] iron ore price of $US71 a tonne versus a spot price of $US207 a tonne.

Gabriel upped his price target to 2,360 pence, up from 2,110 pence.

BHP PLC closed yesterday at 2,065 pence, implying a 14% potential upside.

A word on international listings

It's worth noting that BHP shares don't move identically in the different exchanges where the company is listed. Some of that's due to currency fluctuations, and some on the demand dynamics in any given market.

However, BHP's London and Aussie listed shares do tend to move rather closely.

Over the past 5 days, for example, BHP's London shares have lost 2.1%, while on the ASX 200 they're down 2.2%.

Going back a full year, the difference is larger, with BHP shares gaining 23% on the LSE while they've gained 33% on the ASX 200.

The post ASX 200 resource share upgraded to 'overweight' on LSE by Morgan Stanley appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) plans to follow several of its Wall Street peers and soon begin offering exposure to digital assets like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to its private-wealth clients, CNBC reported this morning.

The investment bank said it will offer a wide array of investments in digital assets directly through tokens, derivatives, or more traditional financial vehicles.

"There's a contingent of clients who are looking to this asset as a hedge against inflation, and the macro backdrop over the past year has certainly played into that," Mary Rich, Goldman's global head of digital assets, told CNBC.

Rich added, "There are also a large contingent of clients who feel like we're sitting at the dawn of a new internet in some ways and are looking for ways to participate in this space."

She said Goldman could begin offering these new investment options within the next three months.

Goldman is just the latest large Wall Street bank to begin offering services for Bitcoin and other digital assets. Earlier in March, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) said it would allow its wealthy clients to invest in three funds that would essentially give them ownership of Bitcoin.

In February, the custodian firm Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE: BK) said it would soon begin to "hold, transfer, and issue" digital assets in the same way it does with stocks or bonds.

This growing adoption among some of the oldest and most storied Wall Street banks continues to support the further integration of digital assets into the traditional financial system.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Goldman Sachs plans to let wealthy clients invest in Bitcoin appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here is what the team have come up with…

Tristan Harrison: Pushpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: PPH)

Pushpay is an electronic donation business which predominantly serves medium and large United States churches. The company is rapidly growing its margins. In Pushpay's FY21 half-year result it increased its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and foreign currency (EBITDAF) margin from 17% to 31%.

The company also recently increased its FY21 EBITDAF guidance range of US$56 million to US$60 million. Management is expecting operating leverage to continue to accrue this year and beyond.

Pushpay is aiming for 50% market share and US$1 billion of annual revenue over the long term.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison does not own shares of Pushpay Holdings Ltd.

Bernd Struben: Nearmap Ltd (ASX: NEA)

Nearmap uses patented cameras and processing software systems to provide digital mapping and aerial imagery services. The company's primary markets are the US, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, and, according to Nearmap, there is plenty of growth potential left in these markets. The company is also hoping its commitment to product innovation, such as its new Nearmap AI, will help create effective barriers to entry for would-be competitors.

Following Nearmap's $90 million capital raising in September, the company believes its cash position is strong. Management is striving to achieve annualised contract value (ACV) growth of 20% to 40% over the coming years. At the time of writing, the Nearmap share price is trading 33.5% lower than its 52-week high seen in August.  

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben does not own shares of Nearmap Ltd.

Sebastian Bowen: Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF)

Challenger is a fund management firm focused on annuities. Annuities are financial products that have been growing in popularity in recent years due to the certainty of income they can provide to the purchaser in retirement. This trend could arguably broaden further in the future with Australia's ageing population.

Unfortunately for this ASX share, the record low interest rates we have been seeing over the past year have dented the company's fortunes. However, this also means Challenger could be a  beneficiary if rates start rising again. And that is bound to happen sooner or later. 

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen does not own shares of Challenger Ltd.

Brendon Lau: Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

The Macquarie share price will be one to watch in February after Morgan Stanley recently highlighted the potential for the investment bank to meet or beat its FY21 consensus forecasts. The broker cited improved trading conditions and ongoing structural tailwinds for its "overweight" recommendation on this ASX share with a 12-month price target of $155.

At the time of writing, the Macquarie share price is trading at around $131, more than 14% lower than its 52-week high of $152.35 achieved in February last year.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Macquarie Group Ltd.

Rhys Brock: Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Online furniture retailer Temple & Webster has been a surprising success story to emerge out of the COVID-19 pandemic. With government-imposed lockdowns hurting many brick-and-mortar businesses across Australia and New Zealand in 2020, Temple & Webster was able to cash in on the consumer shift towards online shopping. It reported a 74% jump in revenues to $176.3 million in FY20, and active customers increased 77% to almost 500,000.

Although there has been a recent pullback in the Temple & Webster share price, the performance of the underlying business has remained robust. First quarter FY21 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came in at $8.6 million – which is already greater than the company's EBITDA for all of FY20.

Motley Fool contributor Rhys Brock owns shares of Temple & Webster Group Ltd.

James Mickleboro: Appen Ltd (ASX: APX)

The Appen share price has come under significant pressure recently. This has been partly due to a trading update from the company revealing COVID-19 was having an impact on demand from some its largest customers. The good news is that management believes this is a temporary headwind and expects demand for its machine learning and artificial intelligence data services to rebound once the pandemic eases.

And, with the Appen share price down ~50% from its 52-week high, analysts at Macquarie have recently put an outperform rating and $27.00 price target on Appen shares. They believe the company is well-placed to benefit from increasing artificial intelligence spending in the coming years.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro does not own shares of Appen Ltd.

Tristan Harrison: Pacific Current Group Ltd (ASX: PAC)

According to Pacific Current, it is a company that invests in "exceptional" investment managers.

In its update for the three months ending 31 December 2020, Pacific said its funds under management (FUM) rose 8.3% to $112.8 billion with GQG, one of its investments, posting "significant increases". GQG grew FUM by over US$35 billion during 2020.

Dean Fremder of Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT) went as far as saying: "The stock's really cheap. It's on nine times earnings. It's growing earnings at double digits, so more than 10% a year… we think they can pay out a much larger portion of their earnings as dividends."

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison does not own shares of Pacific Current Group Ltd.

Sebastian Bowen: Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

Coles is a certainly a company that flourished during the worst throes of the pandemic-induced lockdowns last year. Thanks to panic buying of goods, Coles managed to substantially increase its revenue during 2020. That's the appeal of consumer staples companies in a nutshell. They provide products we all use on a daily basis.

Whilst many ASX shares delivered reduced dividends last year, Coles actually increased its dividend payouts. Based on the current Coles share price, you can expect a fully franked dividend yield of more than 3%, which looks pretty good in this low-interest-rate environment.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen does not own shares of Coles Group Ltd.

The post Top ASX shares to buy in February 2021 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.