After a turbulent week, the US reporting season begins tonight.
First off the rank are the big banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC).
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Corporate earnings
In recent weeks, forecasters have become increasingly pessimistic about US corporate earnings. For the first quarter of 2025, analysts now expect growth of 6.7% for the S&P 500 companies, according to Bloomberg. When Trump was first elected back in November, this number sat around 11%.
For the full year, analysts expect profits to rise 9.4%, which is materially lower than the projected 12.5% at the beginning of the year.
Investors will also be paying close attention to forward guidance. Management is likely to come under the microscope during the investor calls as analysts interrogate them on the potential tariff impact and broader consequences for the global economy.
In particular, JP Morgan's earnings and investor call will be closely watched. CEO Jamie Dimon was the first CEO of a major bank to publicly address Trump's tariffs.
In his 7 April annual letter to shareholders, he wrote:
Whatever you think of the legitimate reasons for the newly announced tariffs – and, of course, there are some – or the long-term effect, good or bad, there are likely to be important short-term effects. We are likely to see inflationary outcomes, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices, as input costs rise and demand increases on domestic products. Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth.
This reflection is especially noteworthy, given that he had initially dismissed the potential long-term impact of tariffs. Now that Trump has paused retaliatory tariffs for all countries except China, investors will be interested to hear whether these changes impact Jamie Dimon's assessment of the economy.
A big month ahead for US-focused ASX ETF investors
The Magnificent Seven companies will report their earnings towards the end of the reporting season (late April and early May). These companies represent a large portion of the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC). Therefore, investors in US-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as the iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF (ASX: IVV) and the BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) will be paying close attention.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which is due to report on 22 April, is likely to attract major interest. After taking a role in the Trump administration earlier this year, Tesla CEO Musk will be under the spotlight. This week, Musk also appeared to break with Trump by endorsing free trade between America and Europe. This should make for an especially eventful Tesla earnings call.
Another company likely to attract strong interest is Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL). The iPhone maker is scheduled to report on 1 May. Apple produces more than 90% of its products in China and has been under the microscope since Trump announced his tariffs. This week, the company briefly lost its spot as the world's largest listed company as its shares took a hit. However, it has since reclaimed its spot. Investors will be tuning in to see what CEO Tim Cook has to say.
One of the last companies to report is Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA). The chip maker will report on 28 May. After appearing unstoppable for the past few years, Nvidia's stock price has been on a roller coaster this year. It was down nearly 40% for the year to date before regaining 19% on Wednesday night. Investors will be keen to hear CEO Jensen Huang's views on DeepSeek and any potential tariff impact.
Foolish Takeaway
There's been no shortage of action on US markets in recent weeks. This should set the stage for an especially interesting reporting season. Over to the banks!
