Australia's next great ASX mining boom: Are we already in it?

ASX mining shares are leading the market recovery today, with money flowing out of the energy sector and into materials.

The ASX materials sector, which is dominated by the mega miners, is 2.3% higher, while the energy sector is down 3.5%.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is in recovery mode today, up 1%, after a surge in oil prices created a $90 billion rout yesterday.

While the war in Iran is dominating headlines, longer-term trends in our investment markets continue to play out.

One of them is a new commodities 'super cycle' that seems to be taking strong hold of our share market.

So, let's dig into the question posed in our headline today.

Is Australia now in a new mining boom?

Australia's last mining boom, from the early 2000s through to 2013, was primarily driven by China's rapid industrialisation.

This period saw a big increase in iron ore and coal prices, major investment in mining infrastructure, and a substantial lift in exports.

It appears we've now entered a new mining boom, but this one is not going to centre on iron ore, nor demand from just China.

This boom will centre on critical materials with industrial applications tied to electrification, power generation, and energy security.

Demand will come from many nations, underpinned by structural changes in the global economy that will take decades to play out.

Paul Wong and Jacob White from Sprott Asset Management name copper, uranium, lithium, rare earths, and silver as the commodities to watch.

In an article, Wong and White said:

[This is] a new kind of commodity supercycle.

The emerging bull market is not repeating past cycles, and is being driven by deglobalization, fiscal dominance and the global push for energy, infrastructure and strategic, domestic supply chains.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver, also says we are embarking on "a new super cycle in commodities".

In a recent article, Dr Oliver said:

… the commodity price slump from their 2008-2011 highs looks to be over with commodities embarking on a new super cycle bull market driven by constrained supply after low levels of investment and electrification and rising defence spending driving increased demand for metals.

This will benefit Australia's resource stocks.

Iron ore is likely to feature less this time around partly reflecting slowing urbanisation in China and its property slump.

Commodity prices and ASX mining shares

The price of gold, silver, copper, lithium, and many critical minerals skyrocketed last year amid rising demand and low supply.

This pushed up the prices and returns of scores of ASX mining shares, with materials the top sector of 2025, returning a staggering 36%.

Gold is part of this mining boom, but for different reasons. Gold is benefiting from central bank buying and safe-haven investor demand.

Wong and White added:

After years of shrinking representation in global portfolios, commodities and resource equities have broken out above multi-year trading ranges, an action that, in our view, marks the developing stages of the new commodity bull market.

Impact on ASX mining shares

The new mining boom is already playing out in the Australian share market.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is up 31% over 12 months and 12.2% in the YTD.

BHP shares recently soared to $59.39 apiece, their highest level in 140 years, and the miner is once again the market's largest company.

Many other ASX mining shares have also hit new records.

These include Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares at $170.71 per share and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) at $31.96 per share.

Take a look at the 12-month change in these ASX mining shares below.

Foolish Takeaway

Wong and White emphasise that this mining boom will not be broad-based, and targeted exposure is important.

They said:

Broad commodity exposure may lack focus on the critical materials currently leading this cycle.

Investors are increasingly focusing on companies tied directly to critical materials and structural demand trends.

As an example, Wong and White point out that copper miners are outperforming diversified miners.

We can see this by comparing the performance of Global X Copper Miners AUD ETF (ASX: WIRE), up 84% over 12 months, to diversified ETF BetaShares Australian Resources Sector ETF (ASX: QRE), up 42%, and VanEck Australian Resources ETF (ASX: MVR), up 48%.

Wong and White conclude:

We see considerable room for continued outperformance from select commodities and the associated equities.