Periods like this don't come around very often.
Across the ASX, a group of well-known income stocks are trading well below their highs, not because their business models are broken, but because short-term conditions have turned against them.
In many cases, their dividends are under pressure today. But that is exactly why I think the long-term opportunity looks so compelling.
When income stocks fall out of favour, investors often focus on what dividends look like right now. I prefer to think about what they could look like two or three years from now if conditions normalise.
Here are several ASX income stocks where I think patience could be rewarded with both dividend growth and capital upside.
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Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1) and Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL)
Accent Group and Super Retail Group have both been hit hard by the same forces.
Soft consumer spending and aggressive discounting have weighed on earnings and margins. Unsurprisingly, that has flowed through to share prices and dividend expectations. Both stocks are trading well below their prior highs.
In my view, these pressures look cyclical rather than structural. Neither business has lost relevance. They have strong brand portfolios, national store networks, and proven operating models.
If consumer conditions improve over the next couple of years, I think there is scope for a meaningful recovery in profitability. That would likely support higher dividends in FY27 and FY28, alongside a rebound in share prices. Buying during periods of pessimism has historically been how the best income returns are generated.
Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)
Domino's Pizza Enterprises is a different case, but the setup feels similar.
This ASX income stock has struggled with execution across several international markets, and that has weighed heavily on investor confidence. Store closures, cost pressures, and weaker sales growth have all played a role in pushing the share price lower.
Management believes its turnaround plan will reset the business. This includes cutting costs, simplifying operations, and exiting underperforming locations.
I don't think a recovery is guaranteed. But if the plan works even moderately well, Domino's could emerge leaner, more focused, and more profitable. From an income perspective, that creates optionality. Dividends today are not the attraction. The attraction is what they could look like if their earnings recover.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)
Treasury Wine Estates has been weighed down by soft demand for premium wine, particularly as cost-of-living pressures have altered consumer behaviour.
I think this is another example of a high-quality business caught in an unfavourable cycle. Demand for premium wine has not disappeared, but consumers have become more cautious with their spending.
If spending patterns normalise, this ASX income stock could see improving volumes and margins. That would support both earnings recovery and improved dividend capacity over time. Buying when sentiment is weak is uncomfortable, but it is often when long-term value is created.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) and NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF)
Not all income opportunities require a full turnaround.
Macquarie Group is down around 15% from its 52-week high. NIB Holdings is down roughly 19%. In both cases, these are established businesses with long operating histories and proven earnings power.
While near-term growth may be more muted, I think both companies remain capable of delivering attractive income and capital returns over a full cycle.
Why this could be a rare opportunity
Income investing works best when you buy before dividends recover, not after.
Just look at Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN). You could have bought its shares for $4.77 in October 2023. According to CommSec, the airline is forecast to pay a dividend of 42.9 cents per share in FY26. This means that investors who bought shares two and a bit years ago could receive a yield on cost of 9% in 2026.
Today's environment has created a gap between what dividends look like now and what they could look like if conditions improve. For patient investors willing to look beyond the next twelve months, that gap could represent a rare opportunity.
It won't work for every stock. Some turnarounds fail. But when income stocks recover, they often reward investors twice. Once through higher dividends, and again through rising share prices. That combination is how long-term wealth is built.
