Investors in Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) have had little to celebrate in 2025.
Shares in the ASX All Ords energy stock have slumped by 18% so far this year, trading at $1.17 apiece at the time of writing.
A recent catalyst for this sell-off came in late July when a quarterly production update triggered a 9% share price decline on the day of the announcement.
Here, Beach Energy reported a 4% quarter-on-quarter fall in production after flooding hit its operations in the Cooper Basin.
This setback flowed through to weaker financials, with quarterly sales revenue sliding by 17% to $455 million.
Subsequently, Beach Energy's FY25 results in early August appeared to provide some reprieve for investors as the share price edged higher.
But now, attention has turned to what lies ahead.
And analysts at investment firm Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have weighed in with their views after evaluating the group's FY25 results and outlook for FY26.
Unfortunately for shareholders, their assessment is not particularly encouraging.
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Established oil and gas producer
Beach Energy produces gas, oil, and natural gas liquids from five basins spanning Australia and New Zealand.
Its core gas assets include a stake in the Waitsia project in the Perth Basin of Western Australia.
In South Australia's Cooper Basin, it has full ownership of the Western Flank project and a minority interest in the Cooper Basin Joint Venture operated by Santos Ltd (ASX: STO).
Beach Energy also operates the Katnook gas processing facility in South Australia's Otway Basin.
This basin stretches across the border into Victoria, where the company produces natural gas for commercial consumption in the East Coast gas market.
Macquarie's outlook for this ASX All Ords energy stock
Macquarie noted that Beach Energy shares have lagged the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by around 7% since its last research report in mid-August.
That said, the broker anticipates a sizeable increase in near-term earnings, supported by revised gas swap returns in Western Australia.
It has lifted its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for FY26 by 30%, and by more than 15% for both FY27 and FY28.
Macquarie anticipates this earnings boost to flow through to dividends.
However, it cautioned that Beach Energy will find it difficult to replicate its final FY25 dividend of 6 cents per share.
The broker has raised its dividend forecast for FY26 to 4 cents per share, which is below consensus estimates of 6 cents per share.
Macquarie also trimmed its valuation for Beach Energy shares by 3%.
It cited anticipated production at Waitsia and a softer domestic gas price outlook in Western Australia for its decision.
Overall, Macquarie has retained an underperform rating for the ASX All Ords energy stock.
It has set a 12-month target price of $0.92 per share, implying 18% potential downside from $1.17 per share at the time of writing.
