Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) shares are in focus today after the team at Bell Potter released updated guidance on the company.
Here's a quick recap of how Kogan shares have performed recently.
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Big jump after results
Kogan is an Australian pure-play online retailer. The ASX retailer primarily caters to value-driven consumers through its private label products, spanning multiple categories including consumer electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware and toys.
In late February, Kogan shares jumped 36% across just a few days following the company's half-year results.
However since then, its share price has been on a steady decline, dropping 13% in the last month.
All in all, Kogan shares are almost even from where they started in 2026.
So, what's Bell Potter's updated view?
It seems that Bell Potter has cautious optimism on Kogan's future.
In a new report released yesterday, the broker it said its 1H26 result, from a revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA and dividends perspective, significantly beat Bell Potter's estimates.
KGN delivered 1H Adjusted EBITDA margins of 7.5% toward the top end of the margin guidance range of 6-9% for FY26. The Nov-Dec seasonal period in particular was a sizable beat to BPe growing at 12% in gross sales at Kogan.com (Aus) despite cycling 47% comps in the pcp (based on BPe).
The broker also adjusted its outlook going forward.
We make changes to our revenue and EBITDA assumptions factoring in the 1H beats and the current run-rate. We also apply some conservatism throughout our estimates given the growing competition within KGN's category in a more challenging consumer landscape.
This sees our medium term Adjusted EBITDA margins towards the bottom end of KGN's target margin range of 8-12% and below company expected longer term margin aspirations towards +20%.
The net result sees NPAT forecasts +11%/+10%/+3% for FY26/27/28e.
Updated price target
Based on this guidance, the team at Bell Potter has maintained its hold recommendation on Kogan shares.
However, the broker did increase its target price to $3.80 (previously $3.30).
Based on this target, it appears Kogan shares are close to fair value.
Yesterday, Kogan shares closed at $3.66, which is roughly 3.5% lower than the target price from Bell Potter.
The broker said:
While KGN has seen some sizeable beats in the latest result and has seen some conducive performance in the Australian business, we remain cautious on the sensitivity of the marketing investment required to cycle 2H comps in a challenging and competitive e-commerce landscape, with potentially Kogan First seeing some normalisation in the current paid subscriber base.
