Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) shares could be undervalued according to Ord Minnett.
On Thursday, the appliance manufacturer's shares ended the session at $26.52.
This means the ASX 200 stock is down almost 30% from its high.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 stock?
Ord Minnett is very positive on Breville right now. This is partly due to its expansion in the United States, which has been boosted by a recent consolidation of vendors by Best Buy (NYSE: BBY). It explains:
Breville executed a major US retail expansion in late 2025 where it installed 'store-in-store' formats in 300 of the more than 1,000 stores operated by US big-box consumer electronics retailer Best Buy. This was part of a deliberate consolidation of vendors by Best Buy, which has rationalised its small domestic appliance offering to five brands – three primary brands in Breville, Dyson and SharkNinja and two secondary brands in De'Longhi and Bella – although brands outside that range can still sell through Best Buy's Marketplace online channel."
A structural advantage in a key market
The broker believes this shift in the retail landscape could work strongly in Breville's favour. Ord Minnett explains:
The consolidation of vendors by Best Buy is described by Breville management as a "material change" to the retail channel structure in the US. The brands chosen benefit from additional shelf space and a structural lock-in, while the brands that have been de-ranged lose access to more than 1,000 retail locations. This dynamic is also playing out across other Best Buy categories, not just small domestic appliances.
As a result, the ASX 200 stock appears to be gaining a stronger competitive position in a highly important market.
Should you buy this ASX 200 stock?
According to the note, the broker has put a buy rating and $37.20 price target on Breville's shares.
Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of 40% for investors over the next 12 months.
In addition, a dividend yield of approximately 1.5% is expected over the period.
The broker concludes:
As a primary partner in Best Buy's consolidated vendor strategy, this should provide Breville with a significant competitive advantage in the giant US market. Following recent weakness in the Breville share price, we upgrade to Buy from Accumulate with an unchanged price target of $37.20.
