The price of gold has stormed into September at full throttle.
The latest rally has seen the precious metal rocket by 40% over the past twelve months to reach an all-time high of about US$3,470 per ounce.
And renowned Aussie investment house Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has picked one ASX 200 gold stock to outperform its peers.
This follows reporting season, where the major players in the gold space unveiled their results for FY25.
And the company tipped to shine is Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST).
More specifically, the broker prefers this ASX 200 gold stock to two other leading miners: Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM).
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Macquarie's viewpoint
Macquarie has picked Norther Star as its favoured ASX 200 gold stock after crunching the numbers from earnings season.
It has placed an outperform rating on Northern Star shares whilst downgrading its outlook for Newmont to neutral.
It expects Evolution's share price to underperform.
Macquarie noted that Newmont – its previous top ASX 200 gold stock – has seen its share price run by 25% since late June, compared to a flat performance from Northern Star shares.
Whilst the broker anticipates Newmont to beat its gold production guidance for 2025, it believes that this expectation could now be priced in.
Macquarie added that Northern Star boasts the highest five-year average free cash flow (FCF) yield out of the three ASX 200 gold mining stocks.
Furthermore, the broker sees Northern Star as having the most attractive future production growth profile with FY30 output projected to be 54% higher than in FY25.
In comparison, Evolution's production growth during the same period is forecast to be 14% stronger, with Newmont at 9%.
Macquarie also sees Northern Star shares as having the most attractive valuation out of the three gold producers.
As a result, it believes that Northern Star could be poised for a positive re-rate over the next six months, moving towards a similar valuation as Newmont and Evolution.
Macquarie's bottom line
Macquarie has now set a target price of $24.00 for Northern Star shares.
This implies 20% upside potential for investors in this ASX 200 gold stock, when compared with $19.95 per share at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, the broker believes that Evolution shares could decline by 24% to $7.00 apiece.
And finally, its $111.00 target price for Newmont shares suggests 3.6% downside potential from $115.15 per share at the time of writing.
