The gold price broke below US$4,000 per ounce following news of rising US inflation and economic growth on Friday.
The US PCE price index rose 0.5% in September, its biggest monthly rise since March, and annual inflation is 3.6%.
The data centre build-out and other new infrastructure spending contributed to US GDP rising to 3.4% annually.
The gold price is currently US$3,994.25 per ounce, down 0.7% today and down 4.4% over the past month.
In the calendar year to date (YTD), the gold price has declined 7.5% and is now close to where it was 12 months ago.
This contrasts with a 65% surge in the gold price in 2025, following a 24% increase in 2024.
The US inflation and economic data has reinforced the likelihood of another US rate hike this year.
The US Fed raised interest rates for the first time in three years in September.
The benchmark rate is now 3.75% to 4%.
The Fed kept interest rates on hold this week ahead of the US mid-term elections next week.
Image source: Getty Images
4 ASX gold shares to buy and why
ASX gold mining shares have followed the trajectory of the gold price in the YTD.
The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) has fallen 7.6% since the start of the year.
On Friday, analysts at Trading Economics said:
Gold is on track to decline nearly 4% in October, potentially recording its second consecutive monthly loss.
Gold began a bull cycle in 2022 after Western authorities froze Russia's foreign exchange reserves after its invasion of Ukraine.
That led to central banks deciding to diversify their reserves away from the US and into the 'safe haven' of gold.
The gold price surge hit a snag in 2026 amid multiple headwinds, including a rush to liquidity after the US-Iran conflict began.
Bond yields rising to multi-year highs have also put a dampener on the gold price.
However, some experts think the gold price decline of 2026 has reached its floor.
Others point out that gold miners are still making a motza on the elevated gold price.
We've seen evidence of this with big dividend payouts from ASX gold mining shares this year.
So, if you're interested in ASX gold shares, here are some stock picks from the experts.
Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)
The Minerals 260 share price is 78 cents, down 0.3% today and up 81% in 2026.
This mineral explorer is developing the Bullabulling project in Western Australia.
On The Bull this week, Jonathan Tacadena from MPC Markets explained his buy rating:
Minerals 260 is a fast growing gold developer with a clear path to production.
First production is targeted for the fourth quarter of calendar year 2028.
The $220 million Franco-Nevada funding deal supports development. We remain bullish on the outlook for gold given global debt.
MI6 may re-rate as it shifts from developer to producer.
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)
The Northern Star Resources share price is $25.27, down 0.1% today and up 3% in 2026.
James Bills from Shaw and Partners describes the gold price environment as "supportive", despite the weakness this year.
Bills explained his buy recommendation on this ASX gold share:
The company operates a portfolio of high quality assets with a proven track record of operational delivery and disciplined capital management.
Recent production results have been solid, and ongoing investment in key projects should support future output growth.
With global economic uncertainty continuing to support demand for gold, Northern Star is well positioned to generate attractive shareholder returns.
Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS)
The Ramelius Resources share price is $3.45, down 2.7% today and down 19% in 2026.
Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities says his buy call is partly based on the belief the gold price has bottomed.
Gable told The Bull last week:
The share prices of various gold mining stocks have held up well, and this sign of strength is bullish.
I'm expecting gold mining stock prices to rally higher from here as they follow potentially higher gold prices.
RMS is an Australian gold producer with no debt and strong free cash flow. It pays a fully franked dividend and has been buying back shares.
RMS is highly leveraged to an increasing gold price and the company's outlook is bright.
Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD)
The Genesis Minerals share price is $6.55, down 2.3% today and down 10% in 2026.
Todd Lewis from Bell Potter has a buy call on this ASX gold mining share.
After reviewing the miner's 1Q FY27 report, Lewis raised his price target to $9.30.
This implies more than 40% potential upside over the next 12 months.
Lewis said:
The quarter was solid on ounces and cash but softer on revenue and cost.
The revenue miss is largely price and sales timing, while the AISC step-up reflects lumpy sustaining capital rather than higher unit mining costs.
