Australia's reputation as a high-dividend market rests heavily on the shoulders of the big S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank and mining shares.
That's according to Betashares investment strategist, Cameron Gleeson, who adds that the ASX 200's dividend dynamic is changing.
Gleeson says the trailing cash dividend yield of the ASX 200 Index has fallen from an average of 4%-4.5% to 3.34% a year.
A key reason for this is falling yields from the big ASX 200 bank and mining shares.
According to the CommSec trading platform, the consensus forecast dividend yields for the top ASX 200 mining shares in 2026 are:
| Top ASX 200 mining shares | Forecast dividends per share in 2026 | Dividend yield |
| BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) | 129 cents | 3.21% |
| Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) | 77.8 cents | 4.13% |
| Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) | 322.1 cents | 2.83% |
| Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) | 48.6 cents | 2.69% |
| Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) | 27.5 cents | 3.59% |
| South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) | 3.7 cents | 1.23% |
Source: Dividend per share (DPS) forecasts from CommSec, yields calculated based on closing share prices on 8 August 2025
The forecast dividend yields for the ASX 200 bank shares in 2026 are:
| ASX 200 bank share | Forecast dividends per share in 2026 | Dividend yield |
| ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) | 168 cents | 5.44% |
| Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) | 155 cents | 4.60% |
| National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) | 174 cents | 4.52% |
| Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) | 680 cents | 3.17% |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) | 540 cents | 3.06% |
| Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) | 64 cents | 5.16% |
| Bank of Queensland (ASX: BOQ) | 42 cents | 5.42% |
Source: DPS forecasts from CommSec, yields calculated based on closing share prices on 8 August 2025
Image source: Getty Images
Why are dividend yields lower?
Gleeson says dividends at an ASX 200 Index level have been falling because the earnings yield has dropped over the past two years.
In a new article, he comments:
For example, in February Rio announced its smallest dividend in seven years, after earnings fell due to both higher production costs and lower commodities prices.
Gleeson adds:
Macquarie's dividends have fallen from their 2022/23 year high, while CBA's dividend growth has not kept up with its stock price, resulting in an underwhelming dividend yield of 2.73% p.a.
Rotation from ASX 200 bank to mining shares last month
Betashares chief economist David Bassanese says a modest rotation out of bank shares and into mining shares "was evident in July".
Investors are seeing more value in ASX 200 mining stocks over bank shares given their lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios.
We compare those P/Es below.
| ASX 200 mining shares | P/E ratio |
| BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) | 11.53x |
| Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) | 9.38x |
| Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) | 11.65x |
| Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) | 20.97x |
| Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) | 21.31x |
| South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) | 4.83x |
| ASX 200 bank shares | P/E ratio |
| ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) | 13.85x |
| Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) | 17.29x |
| National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) | 17.42x |
| Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) | 22.17x |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) | 30.4x |
| Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) | 15.8x |
| Bank of Queensland (ASX: BOQ) | 17.31x |
Source: Motley Fool Australia
Where can you go for better dividend yields?
Looking for new inspiration? Check out some new broker recommendations for ASX dividend shares to buy in 2026.
