Earnings season is just days away and the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is ready for it.
Let's now take a look to see what the broker is expecting from ASX shares this time around.
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Earnings season preview
According to the note, the broker isn't expecting this earnings season to be anything special.
In fact, it believes that aggregate earnings will be lower year on year, which could mean a volatile month for investors. It explains:
ASX earnings are forecast to fall 3% in FY25 – the third drop in a row. The +2.4% rebound in FY26 also looks weak, and if we see conservative guides reset the bar lower (as is typical in August), that number could fall.
With the market PE now up to 20x, this set-up makes for a volatile reporting season where misses will be punished. But, as we outlined in Partying like its 1999 (Jul 2025), our Macro Velocity leading indicator suggests activity and earnings will pick up over FY26. We would therefore buy Growth and Quality Cyclicals on any sell-offs.
What will Macquarie be focusing on?
For reasons covered above, the broker explains that its analysts will be focusing heavily on outlook commentary from management teams. It will also look for updates on tariff impacts and AI investments. Macquarie said:
In results, we will be focused on: i) outlook statements for signs of improving activity; ii) how tariffs are managed; and iii) more concrete data on the productivity and efficiency benefits of AI investments.
In addition, it highlights that it believes that the great rotation out of the banks this season will not be into miners but into healthcare stocks. This could bode well for the likes of CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD). It said:
US results suggest to us the big rotation that should occur is not Banks to Resources, but Banks to Health (#1 overweight in portfolio).
Which ASX shares could positively surprise?
Macquarie has picked out a handful of ASX shares that it believes could positively surprise with their results next month.
This includes annuities provider Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF), investment platform provider Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB), investment management company Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI), airline operator Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN), telco giant Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), and energy giant Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS).
