Mining and metals companies sit within the resources/materials sector of the ASX. These represent some of the largest companies in the broader Australian economic landscape.
Four that sit within the top 25 largest companies on the ASX by market capitalisation are:
- BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)
- Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)
- Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)
As we approach the midpoint of the year, let's look at how these major players have navigated the turbulence so far.
Why has 2025 been rocky for mining shares?
The S&P/ASX 200 Materials (ASX:XMJ) sector has risen just 0.68% in 2025. Despite now sitting in the positive, it has been far from smooth sailing.
Some of the volatility has been influenced by China's reduced infrastructure spending, decreased steel production and, consequently, lower iron ore consumption.
The iron ore price sits roughly 10% lower than a year ago.
This has impacted mining companies' like Rio Tinto and Fortescue which have a large exposure to iron ore prices.
Furthermore, Fortescue reported rising production costs back in February which contributed to a 6% drop during the reporting season.
The escalation of trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, has introduced additional uncertainties.
These geopolitical developments have contributed to market volatility, impacting mining stocks sensitive to global trade dynamics.
Risers and fallers
Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) has had the worst performance amongst these mining giants. It is currently down 14.25% YTD.
The decline can likely be attributed to pessimism surrounding the US and China's future, and the impact this could have for a company that is heavily reliant on selling iron ore to China.
Meanwhile, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) have largely come out unscathed.
The BHP share price sits 3.28% lower than it did at the start of the year, but has been moving in the right direction the past month.
The Rio Tinto share price has risen 1.14% with a similar recovery over the last 6 weeks.
The star of the bunch in 2025 has undoubtedly been Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST).
Its share price is up 24.40% this year, largely due to the performance of gold prices.
Upside galore
Despite already rising significantly this year, experts are still optimistic on the future of Northern Star Resources shares.
Bell Potter currently has a target price of $23.50, while Sequoia Wealth Management's Peter Day (courtesy of The Bull) placed a "buy" rating on the gold miner.
Fo those after a 'buy low' candidate, experts seem to believe that, after falling significantly in 2025, Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares have dipped into the "undervalued" range.
The Motley Fool's Tristan Harrison reported on Tuesday why the Fortescue share price could still be a buy.
Fortescue also featured in a joint report from Macquarie and MST Financial (via The AFR) as a company set to benefit from the Labor Party's recent federal election win.
Bell Potter projects upside for BHP shares, with a target price of $44.37 for the mining company which would be a 14.8% rise from its current price.
Similarly, Goldman Sachs has a buy rating on Rio Tinto's shares with a price target of $140.80, indicating a $17.76% upside.
