Top broker Macquarie has identified an ASX mining stock that it believes has 28% upside over the next 12 months.
That ASX mining stock is Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC).
The Capstone Copper share price is currently $9.78, down 3.84%.
Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.16% on Tuesday.
Let's find out why Macquarie is backing this ASX copper stock for significant growth.
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ASX mining stock tipped to surge in value
Macquarie has an outperform rating on Capstone Copper shares with a 12-month target price of $12.50.
This is lower than the previous target of $13.30 but still provides a potential 28% upside for investors who buy today.
In a new note, Macquarie discusses what's happening with this ASX copper mining stock.
Let's recap the latest news.
What's news with Capstone Copper shares?
The ASX mining stock surged 9.46% on 1 August after the company reported record production for 2Q FY26.
Capstone Copper reported record quarterly consolidated copper production of 57,416 tonnes at C1 cash costs of $2.45 per pound.
Yesterday, the ASX mining stock surged 5.28% after the company announced the sanctioning of the expansion of its Mantoverde Optimized (MV-O) project in Chile, following all required approvals.
Capstone Copper describes MVO as a "capital-efficient brownfield expansion" of Mantoverde's sulphide concentrator.
It says this will increase throughput from 32,000 to 45,000 ore tonnes per day (tpd) by the first quarter of 2027.
This would provide incremental copper and gold production of approximately 20,000 tonnes and 6,000 ounces per annum, respectively.
It would also extend the mine life from 19 to 25 years.
Investors in the ASX mining stock didn't seem to mind the US$30 million increase in the capital cost estimate to US$176 million.
The miner explained the increase was mainly due to scope changes, and to a lesser extent, inflationary pressures.
The upgrades will expand the concentrator processing plant, improve mine equipment, optimise oxide leaching, and enhance the desalination plant.
What did Capstone Copper management say about MV-O?
Capstone said the total capital intensity of MV-O "remains extremely competitive at approximately $9,000 per tonne of incremental annual copper equivalent production".
Cashel Meagher, Capstone's CEO, said the sanctioning of MV-O was "a significant milestone" on the pathway to "transformational growth".
Meagher said:
MV Optimized represents the next phase of our Mantoverde-Santo Domingo district growth strategy, which aims to expand our world-class mining district in Chile with significant copper production and very attractive unit costs1.
Our team is committed to responsible production and ongoing engagement with stakeholders as we progress our growth plans to meet the growing global requirements for copper.
What's Macquarie's take on MV-O?
Macquarise said Mantoverde production had been steadily rising since the sulphide concentrator came online in 2024.
This had driven unit costs lower.
Macquarie forecasts copper output to climb from 102,100 tonnes in 2025 to 147,200 tonnes in 2027.
The broker expects all-in sustaining costs to fall from US$2.66 per pound to US$1.76 per pound over the same period.
Macquarie said investors in this ASX mining stock will soon turn their focus to the impending minority sale of the Santo Domingo project.
The company has been running a partnership process for about a year. It expects to announce a minority sale by the end of September.
Macquarie values Santo Domingo at US$1.4 billion on a 100% basis. It expects Capstone to sell a 30% stake worth US$400 million.
It says the sale proceeds would help de-risk the project.
Macquarie has trimmed its FY26 earnings per share forecast by 8%, reflecting higher MV-O costs and a slower production ramp-up.
The broker concludes that MV-O expansion offers a low-capital-intensity growth path, and the Santo Domingo sale will be a catalyst for the ASX mining stock.
Macquarie said:
In the next few weeks we expect the market to focus on Santo Domingo minority selldown which will help to provide clarity on project development moving forward.
ASX mining stock price snapshot
The ASX mining stock has underperformed the broader market over the past 12 months.
The Capstone Copper share price has lifted 5.9% over the period compared to a 13.4% bump for the ASX 200.
