Why now is the time to buy Northern Star shares

A leading expert recommends buying the recent dip on Northern Star shares. But why?

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Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are pushing higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed yesterday trading for $18.88. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $18.61 apiece, down 1.40%.

This sees shares in the Aussie gold mining giant up 23% over 12 months. And that doesn't include the 50 cents a share in unfranked dividends Northern Star has paid out over the full year.

At the current price, Northern Star shares trade on a trailing dividend yield of 2.6%.

More recently, the miner has faced selling pressure over the past month. Shares are now down 17.8% since closing at $23.01 apiece on 22 April.

Some of that pressure has come amid a modest retrace in the gold price from record highs.

Investors also favoured their sell buttons following Northern Star's quarterly update on 29 April.

With management flagging higher full-year costs and lower full-year gold production than they'd previously expected, Northern Star stock dropped 4.7% on the day of the report.

And it's with this past month's retrace in mind that could make today an opportune time to buy the gold miner.

That's according to Sequoia Wealth Management's Peter Day (courtesy of The Bull).

Northern Star shares oversold on production miss

"This Australian gold miner recently downgraded full year 2025 production guidance in response to operational challenges at its Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines," said Day, who has a buy recommendation on Northern Star shares.

"The company cut full year production to between 1.63 million ounces and 1.66 million ounces. Previous guidance was between 1.65 million ounces and 1.8 million ounces," Day explained. "Cost guidance was revised upwards. Delayed access to the Golden Pike North zone contributed to the revision."

But Day said the cost and production revisions are one-off issues, and investors overreacted to the news.

According to Day:

We note the issues driving the adjustment aren't systemic and unlikely to materially hinder the future growth pipeline. We believe the Northern Star share price sell-off was overdone.

NST remains our preferred gold major.

What else did the ASX 200 gold miner report for the March quarter?

For the three months to 31 March, Northern Star sold 385,000 ounces of gold, which it produced at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of AU$2,246 per ounce.

As at 31 March, the ASX 200 gold miner had net cash of AU$181 million after paying out AU$279 million in dividend payments. Cash and bullion holdings totalled AU$1.12 billion.

Commenting on the performance of Northern Star shares over the quarter, managing director Stuart Tonkin said:

During the March quarter, we delivered strong net mine cash flow of AU$295 million across all production centres despite operational challenges at our biggest asset, KCGM.

Mining of higher-grade ore in the KCGM open pit was delayed because of low productivity in the Golden Pike North area. Mining efficiency is on track to lift significantly in the June quarter.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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