Smart money or dumb luck? Government fund's $50-million lithium bet pays off

How to profit from the lithium recovery.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The good times roll on at the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation, or NRFC.

Less than a week ago, the government fund's seemingly audacious investment in Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) was facing scrutiny.

Commentators and analysts were throwing mud at the move, which saw the fund hand $50 million of taxpayers' money to the lithium miner.

The cash was earmarked to "support the ramp-up and underground transition" of Liontown's Kathleen Valley Lithium Operation. 

The fund's investment was part of a $266 million institutional placement, which saw Liontown enter a trading halt on Friday.

Investors were invited to take part in the placement at $0.73 per new share, a 13.6% discount on Liontown shares prior to the halt.

A person wears a roaring lion mask.

Image source: Getty Images

A matter of national concern

The NRFC and its CEO, David Gall, accepted the invitation.

Lithium is a critical mineral that is central to both decarbonisation efforts and the government's Future Made in Australia strategy.

Australia is well-positioned to be a competitive, long-term supplier of lithium to the rest of the world and local lithium production is important to the nation's economic security and resilience. 

Our investment in Liontown will help to attract private capital and develop Australia's resources sector. It is aligned with the government's strategy of transforming Australia into a global leader in the critical minerals supply chain.

The move came as a welcome reprieve for Australia's lithium players.

The government was throwing support behind long-suffering lithium companies struggling as lithium prices linger around a four-year low.

Although the funds were only allocated to one lithium miner, the action was a clear endorsement for lithium and critical minerals.

Though not everyone was behind the move, with some questioning the fund's investment in Liontown.  

Concerns were heightened when it was revealed Australia's richest woman, Gina Rinehart, was steering clear of the capital raising initiative.

The absence of Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting from the placement was particularly troubling for some.

Hancock Prospecting, with an 18.1% stake in Liontown, is the lithium miner's biggest shareholder.  

So what did Hancock know that the NRFC didn't?

Clearly, the smart money was sitting on the sidelines.

Or was it?  

Big bet pays off

ASX lithium shares started the week by notching up startling double-digit gains.

The price of lithium is showing convincing signs of recovery as a Chinese mine suspends operations.

As such, investor enthusiasm for ASX lithium shares is undergoing a resurgence.

And Liontown emerged from its trading halt as a standout performer.

With Liontown shares currently trading at around $0.95 each, it appears the NRFC's investment was far more prudent than many first thought.

Assuming the NRFC snapped up Liontown shares at the offer price of $0.73 per share, the fund's investment is already up around 30%.

In other words, the fund can claim a profit of $15 million in less than a week.

With all that in mind, the NRFC's next move is keenly awaited.  

Motley Fool contributor Steve Holland has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

a man wearing a hard hat and a high visibility vest stands with his arms crossed in front of heavy equipment at a mine site.
Resources Shares

3 ASX mining shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

ASX 300 mining shares have fallen 16% since the conflict in Iran began.

Read more »

Young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad, and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Resources Shares

Following a key approval, one broker tips 80% upside for this ASX rare earths stock

There could be massive gains to be made.

Read more »

Two workers on site discuss the next stage of this civil engineering job.
Resources Shares

This ASX mining stock just jumped. Here's what's driving the move today

Nickel Industries shares are in the green today.

Read more »

A business person directs a pointed finger upwards on a rising arrow on a bar graph.
Broker Notes

Why this buy-rated ASX mining share is tipped to surge 112%

A leading broker expects this ASX mining share to more than double investors’ money in a year.

Read more »

A woman in high visibility clothing and a hard hat stands in front of an aluminium smelter.
Resources Shares

Rio Tinto just locked in a major deal. Here's why investors are buying today

Rio Tinto shares rise after announcing a major aluminium deal.

Read more »

Three miners wearing hard hats and high vis vests take a break on site at a mine as the Fortescue share price drops in FY22
Resources Shares

Are these 3 ASX 200 mining shares a buy, hold, or sell?

What changes have the experts made to their ratings and price targets since the war in Iran began?

Read more »

A man in a hard hat gives a thumbs up as he holds a clipboard in one hand against a blue sky background.
Resources Shares

ASX mining shares have slumped but long-term outlook is positive

The ASX 200 materials sector has slumped 19% since the war in Iran began.

Read more »

Two workers working with a large copper coil in a factory.
Broker Notes

Should you buy this $8 billion ASX 200 copper stock amid surging global demand?

A leading analyst drills into the outlook for this $8 billion ASX copper miner.

Read more »