Analysts say ASX 200 mining shares may pay better dividends than previously expected in 2025 given the strengthened iron ore price this month.
The iron ore CNY price rose by about 7% over the past two weeks to $US110.30 per tonne on Friday.
The 62% iron ore price also lifted by 3.7% to US$101.40 per tonne on Friday.
Trade data from China buoyed the commodity. The data indicated that existing stimulus measures were already working to raise steel demand.
Trading Economics analysts said iron ore prices were generally still volatile as the world waits to see if US President Donald Trump will implement a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
The analysts said:
Despite these concerns, investors remain optimistic that China will fulfill its promises of additional stimulus, with state media reporting that the People's Bank of China may cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks later this month.
On a positive note, recent data showed that China's annual imports of iron ore reached a record high of 1.24 billion tons last year.
Additionally, the country's steel shipments hit their highest level since 2015, totaling 110.7 million tons.
What do the brokers think?
Dr Peter Gardner from Plato Asset Management is expecting a "decent dividend" from BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares this year.
As reported in the Australian Financial Review (AFR), Dr Gardner said:
[Fortescue] look like they're reducing their investments for Fortescue Future Industries, which is the clean energy part of their business. That should be positive for the dividends going forward.
Aaron Binsted, portfolio manager of Lazard's Australian equity income fund, is hoping for "better mining dividends" if the iron ore price remains above $US100 per tonne.
Binsted said he was confident the mining giants would pay decent dividends even with "a bit more pressure" on the commodity's value.
How much will the ASX 200 mining shares pay in dividends?
Let's take a look at the 2025 dividend forecasts for the major ASX 200 mining shares.
These predictions reflect consensus expectations among analysts on the CommSec trading platform.
We also compare these forecasts to the trailing dividend yields. These are the 2024 dividends paid by the miners expressed as a percentage of their share prices today.
For the purposes of this article, we are focusing on ASX 200 large-cap mining shares.
| ASX 200 mining share | 2024 dividend | Trailing yield | Forecast 2025 dividend | Forecast yield |
| Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) | $2.005 | 10.7% | $1.128 | 6% |
| Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) | $6.36 | 5.4% | $5.489 | 4.7% |
| BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) | 2.204 | 5.6% | $1.726 | 4.4% |
| South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) | 5.3 cents | 1.5% | 5.6 cents | 1.6% |
| Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) | 40 cents | 2.3% | 47.5 cents | 2.8% |
| Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) | 7 cents | 1.3% | 11.2 cents | 2% |
Commodity values create divergent dividend forecasts
As you can see, the forecast dividend yields for the big ASX iron ore shares are lower than last year.
They're also low by historical standards.
Volatile iron ore prices are a key reason for this. For example, the 62% iron ore price fell by more than 20% last year as investors anticipated lower demand from China.
Latest government data and forecasts for iron ore export earnings show an anticipated decline.
Earnings expectations are $108 billion in 2024–25 and $96 billion in 2025–26, down from $138 billion in 2023–24.
It's a different story for the ASX gold miners. A very strong gold price is keeping the earnings outlook bright.
The Federal Department of Resources expects record gold export earnings of $34 billion in 2024–25, up 4.7% on 2023–24.
It forecasts a slight increase in export earnings to a new record of $35 billion in 2025–26.
