BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are 1.35% higher in Tuesday afternoon trade, at $45.68 a piece. Over the past month, the shares have jumped 12.42% and are now trading 14.3% higher than they were in January.
The Australian metals and mining giant has received a lot of attention from investors and analysts this month. It also frequently makes the list of most-traded shares among CommSec clients.
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What happened to BHP shares in 2025?
There have been a few ups and downs, but BHP shares have gradually climbed higher throughout 2025, recouping losses incurred throughout the previous year. The share price has fluctuated, although not wildly. Over the past 52 weeks, BHP shares have traded anywhere between $33.25 and $45.98.
The miner is closely aligned with global commodity prices, which have generally risen in 2025, particularly for copper.
This week, the copper price has reached its highest levels in nearly five months. This is thanks to tight supply conditions and optimism about strong demand from long-term infrastructure projects.
"Prices on the LME are on track for their strongest annual gain since 2009, supported by persistent mine disruptions and historically low treatment and refining charges, underscoring stress in the copper concentrate market," Trading Economics said.
The metal has now gained more than 30% since the start of the year, comfortably outpacing the broader market.
Copper is a central material for the global energy transition and is also used in electric vehicles. It is also a critical component in AI data centres due to its conductivity and efficiency in power distribution and cooling.
And as the world's largest copper producer, BHP has strongly benefited from this year's market shift.
What else drove BHP shares higher?
But the copper price isn't the only thing to boost BHP shares this year. The mining giant has reported strong production figures throughout the year, although its earnings and profit performance have been mixed.
In early December, the miner announced that it had struck up a new US$2 billion infrastructure agreement with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), an investment group owned by BlackRock.
Under the arrangement, a new trust will be set up. BHP will own and control 51% and GIP will hold the remaining 49%. The project is due for completion by the end of FY26, subject to approvals.
Is BHP a buy, sell, or hold for 2026?
Analysts are mostly neutral on the stock and its outlook next year. TradingView data shows that 11 out of 16 analysts have a hold rating on BHP. The remaining six analysts have a buy or strong buy rating.
The average target price for BHP shares is $45.37, which implies a 0.53% downside from the share price at the time of writing. I think I'd sit tight for now.
