Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares could face some fresh headwinds in 2026.
That's according to a rather bearish iron ore price forecast from the analysts at Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC).
Although Rio Tinto and BHP shares are deriving a growing amount of revenue from copper, iron ore remains the top revenue earner for all three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giants.
The iron ore price has been surprisingly resilient in 2025.
After briefly dropping below US$94 per tonne in early July, the industrial metal is currently trading at just over US$105 per tonne.
But that resilience may not last next year.
Image source: Getty Images
2026 iron ore price plunge could hamper BHP shares
Investors in BHP shares and rival ASX 200 mining stocks like Fortescue and Rio Tinto likely know to keep a close eye on what's happening in China, the world's top iron ore importer and steel maker.
And Westpac has cautioned that a large forecast increase in global iron ore supplies in 2026, coupled with material reductions in Chinese steel production, could trigger a 20% fall in the iron ore price (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).
Citing similar market conditions to mid-2024, which led to a 21% fall in the iron ore price, Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk said:
This does give us more confidence in our expectations of a correction in iron ore prices as we move into 2026. We are forecasting a 20% fall in iron ore to US$83 a tonne by end of 2026.
What are other top analysts forecasting?
In potentially better news for investors in Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and BHP shares, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) isn't quite as bearish in its 2026 forecast for the industrial metal.
But CBA does believe that increased supply from the massive Simandou iron ore project in Guinea and sluggish demand from China will see the price of iron ore fall below US$100 per tonne in 2026.
Barrenjoey recently reasserted its own forecast of US$100 per tonne in 2026, with a retrace to US$98 per tonne in 2027.
How have Fortescue, Rio Tinto, and BHP shares been tracking?
Amid the resurgent iron ore price since early June, the big three ASX 200 mining stocks have had a strong six-month run.
Over the past six months, the ASX 200 has gained 1.2%.
Here's how these miners have fared over this same period:
- BHP shares are up 24%
- Fortescue shares are up 51.4%
- Rio Tinto shares are up 38.4%
