ASX 200 gold shares surging as gold price hits new records. Now what?

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold shares are soaring higher on Tuesday.

In afternoon trade today the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller gold stocks outside of the ASX 200 – is up 2.9%.

Here's how these top ASX 200 gold shares are tracking at this same time:

• Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 1.7%
• Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 4.9%
• De Grey Mining Ltd (ASX: DEG) shares are up 3.6%
• Ramelius Resources Ltd(ASX: RMS) shares are down 1.5%
• Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares are up 4.9%
• Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 3.9%
• Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are up 2.4%

Not bad for a day's work.

And today's outperformance follows on a very strong month.

Over the past month, the ASX Gold Index has rocketed 12.6%.

As for the ASX 200 gold shares performance over the last month:

• Northern Star shares have gained 7.3%
• Newmont shares have gained 15.6%
• De Grey shares have gained 0.2%
• Ramelius shares have gained 21.2%
• Gold Road shares have gained 4.2%
• Evolution Mining shares have gained 20.2%
• Bellevue Gold shares have gained 20.6%

That's some great returns for investors.

The question now, of course, is what can we expect next?

What's ahead for ASX 200 gold shares?

Much of the boost for ASX 200 gold shares has come amid a surging gold price.

With most of the miners' costs fixed, higher gold prices tend to usher in higher profits.

Bullion started March at an already historic high of US$2,083 per ounce.

And throughout the month the yellow metal proceeded to set new record highs.

Yesterday gold was fetching just shy of a never before seen US$2,266 per ounce. At the time of writing that's retraced a touch to US$2,256 per ounce, more than 8% higher than this time last month.

Bullion, and ASX 200 gold shares, have been enjoying a raft of tailwinds.

Among them is gold's classic haven status, which has seen increased interest during the ongoing geopolitical tensions embroiling the world.

There's also the increasing likelihood of lower interest rates in the United States, Australia and much of the developed world as inflation comes off the boil. Gold, which pays no yield, tends to perform better in lower and falling rate environments.

"Inflation data, and [Fed chair Jerome] Powell's comments in particular, have provided a further boost to gold, with the market becoming increasingly convinced that the Fed will start to cut rates in June," Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep noted (quoted by Bloomberg).

And central banks have also continued to support demand with many, including China's central bank, continuing to buy near-record amounts of physical gold.

Now what?

There are numerous factors that will impact how each ASX 200 gold share performs over the coming months and years. Those include the quality of their mining assets, management, and other factors like weather and potential tax changes in the countries where they operate.

But the price of gold will certainly be one of the big factors that could potentially help propel ASX 200 gold shares to new heights.

As for where the gold price is heading, JPMorgan Chase & Co came out with a bullish forecast in March, predicting bullion could trade for US$2,500 per ounce, almost 11% above current levels.