In 2025, ASX gold stocks surged as record gold prices, geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of lower interest rates boosted safe-haven demand and expanded miners' profit margins, with several major stocks doubling or more.
As the calendar ticked over to 2026, many of the biggest winners initially fell as valuations became stretched and gold experienced a sharp correction.
However research from VanEck suggests ASX gold stocks are more resilient than investors might have thought.
One ASX gold stock worth monitoring is Ausgold Ltd (ASX: AUC).
It soared 24% yesterday after a key announcement to the ASX.
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What did the company announce?
As reported yesterday by Laura Stewart, Ausgold Ltd (ASX: AUC) announced a recommended scheme of arrangement under which OceanaGold Corp (TSE: OGC) will acquire 100% of Ausgold, valuing each Ausgold share at an implied A$1.36 and the total company at approximately A$776 million.
The scheme is subject to regulatory and court approvals, as well as an independent expert's conclusion that the deal is in shareholders' best interests.
For investors, this $1.36 price represented a 28% premium at the time.
However, after the massive climb during Tuesday's session, the stock price is now hovering just below at $1.32.
Following the announcement, the team at Bell Potter issued updated guidance on the ASX gold stock.
Here is what the broker had to say.
Downgraded outlook
Bell Potter downgraded its outlook on this ASX gold stock to a speculative hold following OceanaGold's proposed ~$776m acquisition of AUC.
The all-scrip deal (with up to A$194m cash consideration) is unanimously recommended by the AUC Board, with major shareholder Dundee Resources also intending to support it.
Completion is targeted for December 2026, after which AUC shareholders would own ~6–8% of OceanaGold, gaining exposure to its four producing gold assets while retaining Katanning development upside with substantially lower funding and execution risk.
Bell Potter views OceanaGold's strong balance sheet as sufficient to fund Katanning's ~$354m development cost and sees relatively low-medium risk of a competing bidder.
The proposed transaction implies A$282/oz of resources, well above the A$202/oz average for selected Australian gold deals in 2024–25, supporting the view that the offer is attractive.
Some upside remains
Based on this guidance, Bell Potter lowered its price target to $1.50 (previously $1.70) on this ASX gold stock.
From yesterday's closing price, this indicates upside potential of 13%.
We downgrade to a Hold recommendation and lower our valuation to $1.50/sh, a 10% premium to the initial offer price recognising that AUC is in-play and its share price should reflect OGC's share price and gold price movements. We see low-medium interloper risk.
