S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold shares have put in a mixed performance so far in 2022.
The early months of the new year saw most ASX 200 gold shares charging higher, as the yellow metal hit multi year highs of US$2,050 per troy ounce on 8 March.
Since that high, gold hit a low of US$1,812 per ounce earlier this month on 13 March. It's again been trending higher since then, currently fetching US$1,854 per ounce.
We'll get to the outlook for the big gold miners in a tick. But first…
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How do Aussie gold stocks stack up against the benchmark?
Since the opening bell on 4 January the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is down 6.6%.
Over that same period the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) has lost 1.4%. Not exactly shooting out the lights, but certainly a better performance.
As for some of the top ASX 200 gold shares, the Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) share price is in the green for 2022, up 1.6%.
Meanwhile, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares have slipped 5.2% while Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) has come under pressure, with shares down 14.9% year-to-date.
That's what's been happening.
Now, what can investors expect for the month ahead?
What's the outlook for ASX 200 gold shares in June?
Gold prices, and by extension ASX 200 gold shares, could continue to benefit in June from the yellow metal's safe haven status, with investor uncertainty stoked by Russia's war in Ukraine.
Gold has historically also proven to be a decent hedge against inflation. And we don't need to tell you that inflation concerns are costing many investors some sleep.
ASX 200 gold shares could also get some tailwinds from a weakening US dollar. On 12 May AU$1 was worth 69 US cents. Today the Aussie dollar is swapping for 71 US cents.
According to Matt Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual (courtesy of the Australian Financial Review), "We've seen a massive rally in the US dollar, since about June last year it's rallied about 15 or 16 per cent. But it's just starting to roll over a bit now, so gold looks good to investors."
But there are some potential headwinds on the horizon as well.
Looking ahead to June, investors eyeing ASX 200 gold shares should bear in mind that the labour crimping impacts of the pandemic are still with us. And that's driving up costs for the big miners.
According to UBS (quoted by the AFR), "Our recent Perth trip highlighted tight labour markets, supply chains and [cost] inflation rates of 10 to 15 per cent. With no immediate solution in sight and COVID impacts lingering, we are looking for those [miners] less exposed."
The broker forecasts the US dollar will slip some more with AU$1 buying 75 US cents.
UBS maintained its neutral rating for Newcrest, with a reduced price target of $26.20 per share. That's 5.6% above the current share price.
UBS has a buy rating for Northern Star, with a reduced price target of $11.70 per share. That's 31% above the current share price of $8.91.
And ASX 200 gold share Gold Road also has a buy rating from the broker, also with a slightly reduced price target of $1.95. That's 45% higher than the current $1.34 per share.
