The gold price has had a turbulent few months and is down 3% year to date, according to the team at Macquarie, driven, they say, by inflationary pressures exacerbated by the Middle East conflict.
This has also impacted the ASX-listed gold miners, many of which have traded flat or down over the period following a very strong calendar 2025.
Macquarie has just this week published a new research report into the ASX gold sector, and has upgraded two companies.
Let's look at those first.
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Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)
The Macquarie team said Evolution delivered third-quarter results that missed expectations, and since then, "we believe Evolution shares have pulled back to a more reasonable valuation''.
They said they are forecasting material increases in earnings per share over FY27 and FY28, and they upgraded the shares from neutral to outperform.
Macquarie has a price target of $13 for Evolution shares, compared to $13.04 currently.
Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP)
Macquarie has also upgraded Greatland from neutral to outperform, saying they believe the company is on track to exceed its FY26 production and cost guidance.
They added:
Valuation has pulled back more recently, we believe offering an attractive entry to a growing production base across Telfer/Havieron. We anticipate a final investment decision (FID) for the Havieron project in the current quarter (4Q FY26) and a potential spin-off of the O'Callaghans tungsten project as near-term catalysts. An updated multiyear mine plan for Telfer is anticipated late in FY27.
Macquarie has a price target of $14 on Greatland shares, compared to $13.83 currently.
Now let's look at some of the other companies they've rated as outperform.
Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)
The Macquarie team said Newmont was their top large-cap pick and they have a bullish price target of $176 on the shares, compared to $149.34 currently.
The analyst team said the company was "demonstrating stable production and capital discipline, evidenced, we believe, by its solid 1Q result in April, which surprised to the upside on our numbers and consensus''.
They said the company had balance sheet strength, and its US$6 billion buyback showed a commitment to rewarding shareholders.
Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM)
The Macquarie team has a $16 price target on this gold company, compared to the current price of $13.23.
They said the company combines a stable, low-cost production base from its existing Karlawinda mine with pending growth from its Mt Gibson development project.
The Karlawinda project is also in the process of expanding, which would boost throughput from 4Mtpa to 6.5Mtpa, and output to about 150,000 ounces per year.
And finally…
Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD)
Genesis is one of Macquarie's top picks with a bullish share price target of $9 compared to $5.62 currently.
The analyst team said Genesis has a strong management team, which has carried out counter-cyclical M&A to grow the company, and it has also managed to exceed its initial production guidance over the past two years.
They added:
We believe that with its strong management team, a solid and deliverable growth pipeline to over 500koz, and disciplined cost control, GMD should trade at a premium to peers.
