Has the ASX hit its peak?

The ASX may struggle to grow further from here.

a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The ASX has struggled to grow since the GFC, the ASX200 is still far behind its pre-GFC peak.

However, it has recently passed the symbolic barrier of 6,000. I don't think passing one barrier means it's more likely to pass another milestone, but it's interesting nonetheless.

It's important to remember that the all-time high before the crash included the mining boom which helped Australia through the GFC. As a couple of examples, BHP Billiton Limited's (ASX: BHP) share price was $44 but now it's $27 (which excludes the impact of South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)). The Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price was $155 and now it's $69.

When you look at the other big contributors to the index you can see that most of them have well and truly recovered. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) are all healthily above their previous highs in 2007.

The large caps aren't the only ones that have helped the index recover. Several ASX shares that are worth billions of dollars have grown impressively over the past decade. Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH), Ramsay Health Care Limited (ASX: RHC), Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF) and Seek Limited (ASX: SEK) have all expanded overseas and added to the index.

However, it's worth questioning if this is the best that the ASX is going to see for a while. Our share market is intrinsically linked to the Australian economy's growth.

The economic growth we have become accustomed to could be about to change if certain factors and statistics translate to problems. Debt ratios are at all-time highs, interest rates are heading up, retail spending is predicted to fall, house prices are starting to head backwards and wage growth reduces every year.

A lot of shares are trading at the highest price/earnings ratio is a long time, only good earnings growth will be able to justify those prices in the near future.

Foolish takeaway

The more expensive the market gets the more careful and picky you need to be with your investments.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison owns shares of Challenger Limited and Ramsay Health Care Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Challenger Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on ⏸️ Investing

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »

⏸️ Investing

Why Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) might hurt News Corp (ASX:NWS) shareholders

News Corporation (ASX: NWS) might be facing some existential threats from its American cousins over the riots on 6 January

Read more »