Retail sales surge: Time to buy retail stocks?

Retail sales jump 1.2% in September over August, and 5.7% for the year. Has consumer confidence returned?

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Retail sales jumped more than 1.2% in September, well ahead of economist forecasts of a 0.4% rise.

According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the household goods sector drove much of the gains, rising 4.1%, with electrical goods sales surging 9.2% ahead of the previous month.

The ABS attributed much of the rise from the release of Apple's iPhone 6 in early September.

"The increase in electrical and electronic goods retailing represents about half of the total Australian sales movement of 1.2 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms," said the ABS.

Analysts noted that excluding the electronics category, retail sales still rose 0.7%, suggesting consumers are spending in the lead up to Christmas.

So investors may well be asking, is now the time to buy retail stocks?

Given the falls in some retailers over the past few months, now may well be a good time to pick up some retail stocks for a nice Christmas bonus.

JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) has seen its share price fall 23% since early August, Myer Holdings Limited (ASX: MYR) is down 20%, the Reject Shop Limited (ASX: TRS) has lost 13%, while Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL) has slumped a massive 25%.

Others have steadily increased, suggesting they may have been under-priced by the market three months ago. Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) is up 20%, while Dick Smith Holdings Limited (ASX: DSH) has gained 10%.

JB Hi-Fi shares are up 1.5% in trading today, and the retailer should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the iPhone 6 release, along with the likes of Dick Smith and Harvey Norman. Add in sales of its usual plethora of consumer electronics as Christmas presents and JB Hi-Fi could be poised to beat analyst expectations.

Recently the company confirmed it was on track for 2015 financial year sales of around $3.6 billion, and had seen positive same store sales growth in recent months.

Currently trading on a prospective P/E ratio of just 11.5x based on analyst estimates, and paying a fully franked dividend of 5.6%, JB Hi-Fi looks cheap and probably the pick of the retailers at this stage.

Motley Fool writer/analyst Mike King doesn't own shares in any companies mentioned. You can follow Mike on Twitter @TMFKinga

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