Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share are down 0.7% at $172.12; Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are down 0.9% at $38.77; ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are down 0.3% at $36.04; and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are down 0.5% at $40.14.

So, which ASX 200 bank stock is shaking off the wider selling pressure that sees the benchmark index down 0.3% at this same time?

If you said Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares, give yourself a virtual gold star. Judo shares are currently changing hands for $1.39 apiece, up 0.7%.

Here's why the challenger bank is grabbing investor interest today.

ASX 200 bank stock reaffirms FY 2026 profit guidance

Judo Bank shares are outperforming in Friday morning trade following a year-to-date performance update.

The ASX 200 bank stock reported gross loans and advances of $13.8 billion as at 31 March, up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter. And total deposits increased to $11.5 billion.

The March quarter also saw an improvement in Judo Bank's net interest margin (NIM), which increased by 0.12% from its first half average to 3.15%.

As for what's ahead, the bank reaffirmed its full year FY 2026 profit before tax guidance to be in the range of $180 million to $190 million.

However, the ASX 200 bank stock noted that it now expects to see profits come in at the lower end of this range. That comes after Judo increased its collective provisions coverage to 0.94% of loans as of the end of the March quarter, up from 0.89% at the end of the December quarter.

What did Judo Bank management say?

"While our customer base remains in good financial health, we have prudently chosen to strengthen our forward looking collective provision in recognition of ongoing uncertainty for the outlook," Judo CEO Chris Bayliss said.

Looking to what might impact the ASX 200 bank stock in the months ahead, Bayliss added:

Notwithstanding the provision increase, we are still on track to deliver FY26 profit before tax within our original guidance range, albeit towards the lower end.

This continues to represent significant operating leverage, underpinned by strong lending, favourable funding conditions and disciplined cost management, and demonstrates strong progress towards our at-scale target of low-to-mid teens ROE.

The post Guess which ASX 200 bank stock is pushing higher on Friday (hint, not CBA shares) appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Judo Capital report?

• Gross loans and advances reached $13.8 billion at 31 March, up from $13.4 billion at December 2025
• Net interest margin (NIM) rose to approximately 3.15% for Q3, up from 3.03% in 1H26
• Total deposits increased to $11.5 billion, with the blended cost of deposits at 0.74% over 1‑month BBSW
• Operating expenses remained in line with previous guidance
• Collective provisions coverage increased to 0.94% of loans as at March, up from 0.89% in December
• Profit before tax guidance reaffirmed at $180–$190 million for FY26

What else do investors need to know?

Judo's asset quality remained stable with 90-days-past-due and impaired loans at 2.65% of gross loans, slightly improving from 2.66% in December. The bank completed a detailed review of its loan portfolio and decided to strengthen its forward-looking provision, especially for sectors sensitive to economic shifts like agriculture and transport.

Judo's new savings products, launched over the past two quarters, have already accumulated over $1.1 billion in balances. The cost of funding remains below historical averages, but deposit pricing is expected to normalise by year-end.

What did Judo Capital management say?

CEO Chris Bayliss said:

Judo continues to give its full support to Australian small and medium-sized enterprises as they navigate heightened volatility in the operating environment. Our unique relationship-led approach and low ratio of customers to bankers means we are close to our customers, and we are well positioned to understand and support their individual lending needs.

What's next for Judo Capital?

Judo reaffirmed its full-year guidance, though now sees profit before tax landing towards the lower end of the $180–$190 million range after its prudent increase to provisions. The bank plans to keep investing in new growth initiatives and deeper penetration into regional and agribusiness lending.

With a healthy capital position and ongoing focus on disciplined cost management, Judo is positioning itself for sustainable growth. Management is targeting a net interest margin at the upper end of guidance and expects funding costs to gradually rise to more typical levels by the end of FY26.

Judo Capital share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Judo Capital shares have declined 21%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 10% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Judo Capital reaffirms FY26 profit guidance as lending growth continues appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Today's uptick means CBA shares are now up 11% for the year to date and 6.5% higher than this time last year.

CBA shares spiked over 12% in 48 hours in mid-February after it posted an unexpectedly positive half-year FY26 result. Since then, the bank shares have remained in the spotlight but have been relatively stable.

But CBA shares are widely considered overvalued relative to its peers, and its bumper price tag isn't supported well by its business fundamentals. 

CBA's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, at the time of writing, is 28.69. This is much higher (and therefore more expensive) than the other major big four Australian banks.

At the same time, the bank is facing ongoing net interest margin pressure from intense market competition and regulatory changes. 

I think CBA shares are well overdue for a correction. And when that happens, we could even see the value crash below $100.

Here are two other ASX bank shares I'd rather own instead.

Forget CBA shares, these are my ASX bank stock picks

Analysts are mostly bearish about ASX bank stocks, with some tipping significant downsides and value corrections ahead.

But there are two exceptions: Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) and Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO).

Macquarie is the fifth-largest ASX 200 bank by market capitalisation, and it is incredibly diversified. The bank does more than just banking; it also provides financial, advisory, investment, and fund management services across 34 markets globally. 

That means it has exposure to commodities trading, infrastructure deals, asset management, and capital markets across multiple regions.

Unlike CBA, it isn't reliant on lending margins, and its diversity means that it can remain stable, or even benefit, when markets are going through periods of volatility.

The business is growing too. In February, the investment bank posted its third-quarter trading update for FY26, where it revealed the business has benefited from strong quarterly growth. 

Then there is Australian-based Judo Bank, which provides financial services and lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with annual turnovers of up to $100 million. 

The bank was founded in 2016, received its banking license in 2019, and was listed on the ASX in 2021. So it's relatively new in comparison to majors like CBA. 

Judo Bank has also had a strong start to FY26. At its latest AGM, it said lending momentum was strong over the first quarter and that it's confident it can achieve FY26 guidance of $180-$190 million. Guidance was confirmed again when it posted its first-half FY26 results in mid-February.

What do analysts expect for these ASX bank stocks?

Analysts are very bullish on both Macquarie and Judo shares over the next 12 months.

TradingView data shows most analysts (10 out of 15) have a buy or strong buy rating on Macquarie shares, with a maximum target price of $270. At the time of writing, Macquarie shares are trading at $138.60, implying a 13.2% upside.

Analysts are even more positive about Judo Bank shares. Out of 13, 12 have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock, and they forecast a maximum target price of $250. At the time of writing, Judo shares are trading at $1.49 each, which implies a huge 67% upside over the next 12 months. 

The post Forget CBA shares — here are 2 ASX bank shares I'd rather own right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After strong share price rallies last year, particularly from the big four major banks, there are now concerns that ASX bank shares are overpriced and overvalued.

Now it looks like the sector could be due for a sharp correction.

There is only one ASX bank stock I'd keep in my portfolio right now: Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO).

Here are a few reasons why.

The ASX bank stock stands apart from the rest

Unlike the major Australian banks, Judo Bank provides tailored financial services and lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with annual turnovers of up to $100 million. 

Its business lending starts at $250,000, and it also offers personal term deposit products and home loans.

The bank has a niche focus in the SME market, an area which is typically underserved by major banks. 

It also tends to earn higher margins on business loans versus the major banks. For example, for the first half of FY26, Judo reported a net interest margin (NIM) on its business loans of 3.03%, and this is projected to increase to 3.15% in the second half of the financial year. Meanwhile, major lender National Australia Bank, reported a NIM of 1.8% in the same period.

Momentum is strong

Judo Bank had a strong start to FY26. At its latest AGM, it said lending momentum was strong over the first quarter and that it's confident it can achieve FY26 guidance of $180-$190 million. 

Guidance was confirmed again when it posted its first-half FY26 results in mid-February.

The bank posted a 32% hike in statutory NPAT to $59.9 million. Its profit before tax hiked 53% on the prior corresponding period, to $86.5 million and its cost-to-income ratio improved.

The bank also confirmed it had delivered above system growth in gross loans and advances, up 7% since June to $13.4 billion, and up 15% year-on-year.

The bank also said it expects operating leverage to improve further in the second half of FY26.

Analysts are bullish

At the time of writing on Wednesday morning, Judo Bank shares are 1.3% higher at $1.36 a piece. The shares have tumbled 18% over the past month, in line with the rest of the financial sector and other ASX bank stocks. Judo Bank shares are down 26% over the past year. 

Analysts aren't concerned, though, and 12 out of 13 analysts still hold a buy or strong buy rating on the shares.

The average target price is $2.22, which implies a 63% upside at the time of writing. Some are even more bullish and expect the share price to jump 84% to $2.50 each.

The post This is the only ASX bank stock I'd keep in my portfolio appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After a rapid fall of the Judo share price over the last couple of months, as the chart below shows, this could be a contrarian and effective time to invest.

How bullish are analysts?

There have been seven top analysts who have given an opinion on Judo shares in the last three months, according to CMC Invest.

Of those seven ratings, all seven of them currently rate the ASX bank share as a buy.

A price target tells investors where experts think the share price will be in the next 12 months.

The average price target for those seven optimistic analyst views is $2.28, suggesting a possible 58% rise in the next year (at the time of writing).

That's just an average view of all the analysts – the lowest price target is $2.05, which suggests a possible rise of 42%. The most optimistic price target is $2.50, implying a potential 73% increase in the next year.

How fast is the ASX bank share growing?

The business is rapidly growing, which could help justify the Judo share price rise in the coming years, though volatility could persist in the short term.

In the first six months to 31 December 2025, Judo's gross loans and acceptances (GLA) rose 15% year over year to $13.4 billion, while deposits increased 21% to $10.9 billion.

Judo highlighted that it delivered continued above-system growth, which essentially means it's gaining market share.

The profitability of its lending, as measured by the net interest margin (NIM), grew 22 basis points (0.22%) year over year to 3.03%, though it was flat compared to the second half of FY25.

All of those positive numbers led to good, profitable growth numbers for the ASX bank share. The profit before tax (PBT) rose 53% to $86.5 million, and statutory net profit grew 46% year over year to $59.9 million.

Pleasingly, the return on equity (ROE) is regularly improving, which tells investors how much profit it's making on the retained shareholder money within the business. A growing ROE suggests that further scaling of the business will lead to even stronger profitability at the business.

Its ROE was 5.1% in HY25, 5.5% in the second half of FY25, and 6.9% in the first half of FY26.

For FY26, the business is aiming for a PBT of between $180 million and $190 million, suggesting another good year of profit growth for the bank.

Further profit improvement is expected by the business as it reaches 'at scale' – ROE is expected to reach low to mid-teen ROE, while its cost-to-income (CTI) ratio is expected to improve from less than 50% in FY26 to "approaching 30%" in the long term.

Overall, the ASX bank share has a very promising future, and it could be one to watch.

The post Why experts think this ASX bank share can rise 58% in a year! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The Reserve Bank raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% this month, marking the second consecutive increase in 2026. The bank cited persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labour market for the increase. 

Now the experts are warning that Australia's inflation rate could keep climbing, and major banks widely predict another cash rate increase in May. 

What's the latest out of ASX bank stocks?

The Australian share market is dominated by the big 4 major banks. Together, the majors – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) – make up around a quarter of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation.

Then there are the smaller players, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN), and Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO). 

At the time of writing on Wednesday morning, CBA shares are up 1% to $172.86; Westpac shares are up 1.3% to $40.25; NAB shares are up 1.4% to $40.31; and ANZ shares are up 1.3% to $36.93.

Over the month, the major bank shares are down 3%, 6.2%, 11.8%, and 7%, respectively.

Outside of the majors, Macquarie shares are 1.9% higher at the time of writing to $198.71; BOQ shares are 1% higher at $6.83 a piece; Bendigo shares are 0.6% higher at $10.11 each; and Judo shares have climbed 0.3% to $1.48.

Over the month, the smaller bank shares are down 4%, 2%, 6.5%, and 14%, respectively.

Which ASX bank stocks are a buy?

Analysts are the most optimistic about the outlook for Judo Bank shares. It's the only ASX bank stock where analysts mostly hold a strong buy rating. Its average target price is $2.25, which implies a huge 51% upside at the time of writing. Although some think this could jump even higher, by up to 68% to $2.50 per share.

Sentiment on the outlook for Macquarie shares is mostly very positive. Most analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the bank's shares. The average $238.28 target price implies the shares could jump 21% from here.

Which ASX bank stocks are a hold?

Analysts are undecided about the outlook for NAB shares, with sentiment mostly for a hold rating. The average target price is $43.90, which implies a potential 1.88% downside at the time of writing.

Brokers are also neutral on the outlook for ANZ shares over the next 12 months. Most have a hold rating with an average target price of $35.56, which implies a potential 0.3% downside at the time of writing.

Sentiment is also neutral on BOQ shares, with data showing most analysts have a hold rating on the stock. However, the average $6.37 target price implies a potential 6.5% downside at the time of writing.

Analysts also mostly have a hold rating on Bendigo shares. Although its average target price of $10.41 implies a 3% upside at the time of writing.

Which ASX bank stocks are a sell?

Sentiment is that CBA shares are overpriced and out of keeping with the company's fundamentals. Most analysts have a sell or strong sell rating on CBA shares and are tipping an average downside of 23% to $133.85 a piece over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

Westpac is also expected to have limited growth over the next few years. Most analysts also have a sell or strong sell rating on the ASX bank's shares and tip an average downside of 8% to $40.35.

The post ASX bank stocks: Buy, sell, or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Some businesses may be impacted by higher costs (from higher energy costs), while others may be able to increase their profitability.

It's curious when one analyst rates a business as a buy, but it's fascinating when there are numerous buy ratings on the same business. We're going to look at two of the most highly rated ASX shares out there right now, in terms of the number of buy ratings on them.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

Coles is one of Australia's largest supermarket operators. According to CMC Invest, there are currently 11 buy ratings on the supermarkets.

One of the brokers that likes Coles is UBS, which has a buy rating on the business with a price target of $24.

In a recent note, UBS highlighted the strength of the ASX share regarding its ongoing sales growth. It said that its supermarket business is delivering strong execution because of promotional effectiveness and cost leadership. At the same time, it's trading at a sizeable price/earnings (P/E) ratio gap to Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW).

In the first six months of FY26, the supermarket division of Coles reported sales growth of 3.6% and underlying operating profit (EBIT) growth of 14.6%. This helped the overall business deliver underlying net profit growth of 12.5% to $676 million, despite challenges in the liquor division.

UBS also highlighted its recent investments in its supply chain and new warehouses will help product availability and improve its online offering, which help provide confidence for sales growth in 2026.

The broker projects the business could generate $1.25 billion of net profit in FY26 and pay an annual dividend per share of 77 cents.

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Another business that is highly rated by analysts is small and medium business-focused bank Judo. A significant portion of its funding comes from term deposits for businesses, SMSFs and individuals.

According to CMC Invest, there have been seven recent buy ratings on the business.

One of the brokers that likes Judo is UBS, with a buy rating and price target of $2.25.

UBS thought the ASX share's FY26 half-year result was impressive, with "plenty going right". The broker highlighted that management are having improving confidence in lending book growth and net interest margin (NIM) delivery.

Management has guided that the NIM could be 3.15% in the second half of FY26. Judo also said that management's guidance for cost-to-income (CTI) to reach around 30% is "achievable given NIM can continue to expand from deposit growth and mix".

UBS said that it thinks Judo looks "well placed to benefit from structural tailwinds to business banking credit growth".

The broker forecasts the business could generate a net profit of $133 million in FY26, which would represent significant year-on-year growth. UBS also predicts that the business could start paying a dividend in the 2027 financial year.

The post 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Despite today's softer share price, CBA stock is still 8.83% higher for the year-to-date and 21.22% higher over the year.

CBA shares spiked over 12% in 48 hours mid-February after the bank posted an unexpectedly-positive half-year FY26 result. Since then, the bank shares have remained in the spotlight but have been relatively stable. 

But I don't think the latest share price gains will continue. CBA shares are significantly overvalued relative to its peers and aren't supported by the bank's core business strength or earnings. 

At the same time, the bank is facing ongoing net interest margin pressure thanks to intense market competition and regulatory changes.

More interest rate hikes could also put even more pressure on banks to compete.

I think CBA shares will suffer more overall weakness this year. In fact, I think CBA shares could possibly crash below $100 in 2026.

The good news is that there is another ASX bank stock that analysts are tipping for huge upside.

The ASX bank shares tipped to soar higher

Analysts expect all the big four banks' shares to drop in 2026. Data shows that experts think CBA shares carry the most downside risk, with a downside of up to 48.67% at the time of writing. This could see CBA shares tumble down to just $90 a piece.

But the outlook for Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) is another story.

Australian-based Judo Bank provides financial services and lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with annual turnovers of up to $100 million. Its business lending starts at $250,000, and it also offers personal term deposit products and home loans.

The bank was founded in 2016 and received its banking license in 2019, and was listed on the ASX in 2021. So it's relatively new in comparison to majors like CBA. 

Judo Bank has also had a strong start to FY26. At its latest AGM, it said lending momentum was strong over the first quarter and that it's confident it can achieve FY26 guidance of $180-$190 million. Guidance was confirmed again when it posted its first-half FY26 results in mid-February.

The bank posted a 32% hike in net profit at $59.9 million. It also confirmed it had delivered "above system growth" in gross loans and advances, with $13.4 billion, up 7% over the half and 15% year on year.

At the time of writing, Judo Bank's shares are down 0.54% to $1.46 a piece. For the year-to-date, the shares are 18.78% higher, and they're down 23.05% over the past month alone.

Analysts aren't spooked, though. The latest strong results announcement suggests the share price plummet is likely due to investors taking their gains off the table after a strong price rally. Judo shares soared over 31% between November and early February this year.

What do the analysts expect next?

TradingView data shows 12 out of 13 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on Judo shares. The average target price is $2.25, while the maximum is $2.50 per share over the next 12 months.

At the time of writing, that implies a potential 53.67% to 71% upside for investors.

The post Forget CBA shares, this ASX bank stock is tipped to soar another 70% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Zip shares have fallen more than 50% since January, and more than 60% since hitting 12-month highs last October. 

Meanwhile, Judo shares have fallen just over 15% for the year to date. 

By comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Financials (ASX: XFJ) index is up 1.7% in that same span. 

After such significant declines, it could be a buy-low opportunity for these battered ASX financials stocks. 

Here's what experts are saying. 

Is the Zip recovery coming?

Zip is an Australian financial technology company that has grown its operations in Australia, New Zealand and the United States to provide customer services in 12 countries. 

Zip offers point-of-sale credit and digital payment services to consumers and merchants via interest-free buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) technology.

Its share price was heavily sold off during February earnings season. 

This included a single day fall of 34.4% the day after the company released its half-year earnings result.

It now sits close to a 52-week low.

However targets from analysts suggest it could be an ideal time to buy. 

Recently, Macquarie placed a price target of $3.35 on this ASX financials stock. 

The broker viewed the February earnings results in a more positive light than the wider market. 

Despite the reset in earnings on the back of moderated operating leverage as Zip invests for growth, we expect medium-term growth supported by Zip's attractive unit economics model.

10 analysts forecasts via TradingView have an average one year price target of $4.21 on Zip shares. 

From yesterday's closing price of $1.60, these targets indicate a potential upside between 109% and 163%. 

Judo shares set to bounce back

Judo is an Australian bank focused on lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

Its brand provides business lending starting at $250,000 and touts itself as providing more flexibility than major banks. It also offers personal term deposit products and home loans.

Its share price is down 15% year to date despite posting positive earnings results last month. 

Based on recent broker ratings, its current share price could be a value. 

The team at UBS is optimistic about future EPS growth. 

The broker is expecting the business to grow its earnings per share (EPS) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 14% over the next three years. 

The broker has a price target of $2.25 on this ASX financials stock. 

From yesterday's closing price of $1.53, that indicates a potential upside of 47%. 

The post It could be time to buy low on these ASX financials stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

We are still in the middle of reporting season and some updates have been pleasing to analysts. When a business reports strong growth and still looks undervalued, then it could be a great buy today.

We're going to look at two of the most appealing ASX shares available to Australians to buy today, based on the number of buy ratings.

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Judo is a bank that is best known for providing loans to small and medium enterprises (SME), and unlocking a lot of funding for those loans via term deposits.

According to the Commsec collation of analyst opinions, there are currently 12 buy ratings on the ASX share.

In the half-year result, Judo reported that its gross loans and advances (GLA) increased 15% year-over-year and the net interest margin (NIM) improved 22 basis points (0.22%) to 3.03%, enabling a 46% rise in statutory net profit after tax (NPAT).

UBS is one of the brokers that rates Judo as a buy, with the numbers indicating "improving management confidence in lending book growth and NIM delivery". The NIM was 1 basis point (0.01%) better than what market analysts were expecting.

Management has provided guidance that the NIM could expand to around 3.15% in the second half.

UBS believes Judo looks "well placed to benefit from structural tailwinds to business banking credit growth". The broker is expecting the business to grow its earnings per share (EPS) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 14.1% over the next three years.

The broker has a price target of $2.25 on the business and the $133 million net profit projection for FY26 implies the business is trading at 16x FY26's estimated earnings.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

TechnologyOne is one of the largest software businesses on the ASX. It provides enterprise solutions for clients like local, state and federal governments, financial services, education, utilities, health and community services.

The Commsec collation of analyst opinions on the ASX share shows there are currently 13 buy ratings on the business.

TechnologyOne recently held its annual general meeting (AGM) which included some good news, helping offset some of the negativity surrounding potential AI threats to its future profitability.

UBS is one of the brokers that rates TechnologyOne as a buy.

The broker noted that at the AGM, it upgraded its expectations for profit before tax (PBT) to between 18% to 20%, up from the previous guidance of 13% to 17%. UBS is projecting 18.4% profit growth for TechnologyOne.

Additionally, the ASX share also gave new FY26 annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth guidance of between 16% to 18%. UBS thinks the ARR growth will be 18%.

UBS noted that TechnologyOne continues to target at least $1 billion of ARR by FY30. UBS thinks the ASX share will reach $1 billion of ARR by FY29.

On AI worries, the broker wrote:

i) TNE has sold 22 subscriptions for their new agentic AI-platform, Plus. At $75k/pa, early AI revenues are run-rating at $1.7m, since commercialisation just early Feb. Plus has seen the fastest takeup from customers versus other modules released by TNE, which gives us comfort on AI presenting as a direct monetisation avenue for TNE; ii) AI investment is all factored into PBT guidance and will see immediate PBT benefits, both on topline and on productivity.

TNE's upgraded guidance today was expected but even then, still came in slightly above UBSe and cons numbers, which we view positively in light of recent concerns on AI disruption.

AI platform Plus' early monetisation gives us comfort that AI could have potential to be a growth inflector over time.

UBS has a price target of $38.70 on the ASX share, implying significant potential for a share price recovery over the next year.

The post 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Let's take a closer look at three and see if the broker rates them as buys, holds, or sells. Here's what you need to know:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

This infant formula company delivered a stronger than expected half-year result this week. In addition, Morgans notes that management has upgraded its FY 2026 guidance again.

While the broker is a fan of A2 Milk, it thinks its shares are fairly valued now. As a result, it has put a hold rating and $9.50 price target on them. It said:

A2M's 1H26 result was stronger than expected. The beat for us reflected stronger than expected Other Nutritionals and Liquid Milk sales. FY26 guidance was upgraded once again. NPAT growth should accelerate in FY27 given A2 Pokeno is expected to breakeven and new China label (CL) IF products will be launched. While we rate the company and its management team highly, we believe that the stock is trading on fair multiples (FY27 PE of 29.3x and PEG of 1.9x). We maintain a Hold rating with a new price target of A$9.50 (previously $9.40).

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

This copper miner disappointed with its production guidance earlier this week. It notes that its production volumes were softer than expected and its costs were higher.

Nevertheless, the broker remains positive and sees plenty of value in Capstone shares. This has seen Morgans retain its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $16.60. It said:

CY26 production guidance is well below expectations with higher costs and capex reflecting lower grades at Pinto Valley and Mantos Blancos, and strike and tie-in impacts at Mantoverde driving likely near-term earnings revisions. CY26 headwinds are largely sequencing and one-off in nature, with MV-O ramp-up and higher grades positioning CSC for volume growth and lower unit costs from CY27 onward. Maintain BUY with a A$16.60ps target price (previously A$17.40).

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Finally, Morgans has downgraded this small business lender's shares to an accumulate rating (from buy) with a $2.09 price target. The broker made the move on valuation grounds following a sizeable rise in the Judo share price in response to a strong half-year result. It said:

Strong 1H26 profit growth provided evidence of improving operating leverage. Forecast NPAT changes across FY26-28F are within +3% to -4% on a mildly higher revenue and costs scenario than previously assumed. 12 month target price lifted to $2.09/sh mostly on valuation roll-forward. Rating moved down from BUY to ACCUMULATE given recent share price strength.

The post Buy, hold, sell: A2 Milk, Capstone Copper, and Judo Capital shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

With a longer-term view in mind, we've canvassed the opinions of three brokers on where the shares could go from here, and the consensus is that the company is undervalued at current prices.

More on that later. First off, what did the company report this week?

Profits surging

Judo said in its statement to the ASX this week that net profit had come in at $59.9 million, up 32% on the prior half and 46% on the same period the previous year.

The junior bank said it had delivered "above system growth" with gross loans and advances of $13.4 billion, up 7% over the half and 15% year on year, driven, the company said, by its "differentiated customer value proposition and improved productivity''.

Judo also reaffirmed its guidance for the full year, with pre-tax profits of $180 to $190 million.

Chief Executive Officer Christopher Bayliss said regarding the result:

Today's result demonstrates that Judo continues to successfully execute against its clear and simple strategy. 2026 is a significant milestone for Judo, marking our 10th year as Australia's first specialist SME business bank. Over this time, not only have we validated the strong demand for a differentiated, relationship-based approach to SME lending, we have demonstrated the agility of our model and our team's ability to successfully execute our strategy. Following major investment in Judo's systems and people, we have built the bank we dreamed of and are now scaling our business and progressing towards our goal of delivering a sector-leading return on equity.

Mr Bayliss added the bank was continuing to expand into regional and agribusiness lending.

Shares looking undervalued

Among the brokers, Morgan Stanley has the most bullish share price target for Judo, at $2.20 per share, compared with $1.80 on Wednesday.

The Morgan Stanley team said good volume growth, an upgrade to margin guidance, and evidence of increased operating leverage provided more confidence in Judo's 2-year earnings outlook.

Meanwhile, at Morgans, they have a price target of $2.09 on Judo shares, but added that there could be some serious upside further down the track.

They added:

Judo does not intend paying dividends as it retains capital to support its significant loan growth aspirations. As such, investors in Judo are entirely reliant on capital growth to achieve their total return objective. While Judo is higher risk than major banks given it is a challenger operating entirely in the SME business banking space, we expect capital appreciation will be driven by stellar earnings growth across FY26-27 in particular. By the end of this decade we think Judo may be worth close to $3/share.

And finally, the team at Macquarie has a price target of $2.05 per share for Judo.

They said the company was executing well and delivering on growth, and they have an outperform rating on the shares.

Judo was valued at $2.12 billion at the close of trade on Tuesday.

The post Are Judo Capital shares a buy, sell or hold after their results this week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are storming higher:

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP Group share price is up 7% to $53.92. Investors have been buying this mining giant's shares following the release of its half-year results. The Big Australian reported an 11% increase in revenue to US$27.9 billion and a 25% lift in underlying EBITDA to US$15.46 billion. A key driver of this growth was its copper operation, which delivered record EBITDA of US$8 billion. This meant that copper contributed the majority of earnings for the first time in its history. Looking ahead, management has increased its FY 2026 group copper guidance to the range of 1.9 Mt to 2.0 Mt.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

The JB Hi-Fi share price is up a further 8% to $89.32. Investors have been buying the retail giant's shares this week after it released its half-year results. JB Hi-Fi reported a 7.3% increase in total sales to $6.1 billion and a 7.1% lift in net profit after tax to $305.8 million. Commenting on the results, JB Hi-Fi's CEO, Nick Wells, said: "We are pleased to report record sales and strong earnings for HY26, as we built on the momentum of the previous year. In a retail environment where customers are seeking value, our brands continue to resonate strongly and our teams continue to execute to a high standard."

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

The Judo Capital share price is up 4% to $1.92. The catalyst for this has been the release of the lender's half-year results this morning. Judo Capital reported a 46% increase in statutory net profit after tax to $59.9 million and a 53% jump in profit before tax to $86.5 million. The company's CEO, Chris Bayliss, said: "Today's result demonstrates that Judo continues to successfully execute against its clear and simple strategy. We are on track to achieving our existing FY26 guidance for significant profit growth and realising the operating leverage inherent in our business model."

PEXA Group Ltd (ASX: PXA)

The PEXA Group share price is up 5.5% to $14.63. This follows news that the property settlement technology company has decided to exit its majority-owned Digital Solutions businesses following a strategic review. In addition, the company has upgraded its FY 2026 EBITDA margin guidance to 34% to 37% (from 32% to 35%).

The post Why BHP, JB Hi-Fi, Judo Capital, and PEXA shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) challenger bank stock closed yesterday trading for $1.85. In earlier trade, shares leapt to $2.07 each, up 11.9%. After some likely profit-taking, in later morning trade on Tuesday, shares are swapping hands for $2.01 apiece, up 8.7%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.3% at this same time.

Here's what's piquing investor interest today.

Judo share price leaps on profit and earnings growth

Before market open this morning, the ASX 200 bank released its half-year results, covering the six months to 31 December (H1 FY 2026).

And investors are sending the Judo share price soaring after the company reported a 46% year-on-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to 5.4 cents per share.

In other strong growth metrics, Judo reported a 15% year-on-year increase in gross loans and advances (GLA) to $13.4 billion. GLA were up 7% from H2 FY 2025.

And the bank reported a net interest margin (NIM) for the half of 3.03%, broadly in line with the prior half and up 0.22% from last year. Pleasingly, management upgraded their guidance for the second half-year NIM to approximately 3.15%.

And the Judo share price certainly looks to be catching some added tailwinds with the bank achieving a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $59.9 million, up 46% from H1 FY 2025. Profit before tax (PBT) of $86.5 million was up 53%.

Management credited the strong profit result to continued scaling of the loan book, a stable NIM, and a lower cost of risk.

Looking ahead, the ASX 200 bank reaffirmed its full-year FY 2026 guidance of PBT in the range of $180 million to $190 million, indicating an even stronger second half to come.

What did management say?

Commenting on the results sending the Judo share price soaring today, CEO Chris Bayliss said:

Today's result demonstrates that Judo continues to successfully execute against its clear and simple strategy. We are on track to achieving our existing FY26 guidance for significant profit growth and realising the operating leverage inherent in our business model.

As for the big boost in loans, Bayliss added:

A strong SME lending franchise, combined with our ability to stay nimble in a competitive market, has seen our lending book continue to grow above system. This momentum is being further supported by emerging productivity gains and banker enablement initiatives as we continue to expand into regional and agribusiness lending.

The post Why is the Judo share price surging 12% on Tuesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Judo Capital report?

• Statutory NPAT of $59.9 million, up 32% on the prior half and 46% year-on-year
• Profit before tax (PBT) rose to $86.5 million, up 26% half on half and 53% on the prior corresponding period
• Gross loans and advances (GLA) grew 7% since June to $13.4 billion, 15% higher year on year
• Net interest margin (NIM) held steady at 3.03%, with 2H26 NIM guidance upgraded to around 3.15%
• Cost-to-income (CTI) ratio improved to 48.5%, 890 basis points lower than a year ago
• Capital position remains strong, with CET1 ratio at 12.6%

What else do investors need to know?

Judo continues to grow its lending at rates above the broader banking system, supported by a customer-led value proposition and productivity gains. The bank's deposit base also hit a new high of $10.9 billion, boosted by the launch of an intermediated at-call savings account, with further product innovation planned.

Asset quality remains stable, though there was a small rise in accounts more than 90 days past due, which the bank says relates to a handful of exposures across several sectors. Judo successfully completed a $150 million Tier 2 capital issue in October, underpinning continued growth without the need for more core equity.

What did Judo Capital management say?

CEO and Managing Director Chris Bayliss said:

Today's result demonstrates that Judo continues to successfully execute against its clear and simple strategy. We are on track to achieving our existing FY26 guidance for significant profit growth, and realising the operating leverage inherent in our business model… Our passion to support SMEs continues to guide everything we do, and I'm very confident about the strength of our business as we move into the second half of the year and beyond.

What's next for Judo Capital?

Judo reaffirmed its FY26 guidance, expecting profit before tax to land between $180 million and $190 million, and upgraded its loan growth range to $14.4–$14.7 billion. Management is targeting ongoing productivity improvements, further product launches, and deepening its focus in regional and agribusiness lending.

The bank expects operating leverage to improve further in the second half of FY26, with a cost-to-income ratio below 50% and an anticipated return on equity in the low-to-mid teens as it continues to scale.

Judo Capital share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Judo Capital shares have declined 5%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Judo Capital: profit surges 32% and loan growth outlook rises appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This week's interest rate hike and concerns that inflation is spiralling again have created more headwinds for the sector. The spotlight is well and truly on where ASX bank shares will go from here.

But some parts of the sector have a far rosier outlook than others. Here's one ASX bank stock I'd buy right now, and one I'd avoid.

I'd buy Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares

Judo is an Australian bank built to provide financial services and lending to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) with a turnover under $100 million.

The bank was founded in 2016, received its banking license in 2019 and was listed on the ASX in 2021. So it's new in comparison to the Aussie majors. 

What I like about Judo is that it sits apart from the rest of the banks in the sector. Unlike the big four, Judo is purely focused on SMEs, doing so through relationship-based banking rather than mass mortgages or consumer loans.

This business model means that the bank is more sensitive to economic changes, but it also means it has a higher growth potential because it has good customer engagement and, therefore, business momentum.

In its latest results for the first half of FY26, the bank reported strong loan growth and confirmed it was on track to meet its gross loans and advances (GLA) guidance of $14.2 to $14.7 billion in 2026. Judo also plans to boost its profit before tax to $190 million. 

At the time of writing on Thursday morning, the bank's shares are down 0.53% to $1.89 a piece. That represents a 5% increase for the year to date. 

I'd avoid Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares

I'm concerned that CBA shares are still well above fair value and that they could be due for a price correction this year. In fact, I think they could crash below $100 in 2026. 

CBA's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at the time of writing is 24.86, which is much higher (and therefore more expensive) than most other banks'.

The banking giant is also facing ongoing margin pressure from intense market competition in lending and deposit products. And the latest interest rate hike could pile even more pressure on the business to perform.

In the short term, an interest rate hike means more earnings for CBA. But in the medium to long term, it can lead to stronger competition and even an increase in mortgage stress. As CBA is heavily exposed to mortgage lending, this could put huge pressure on its share price.

At the time of writing on Thursday morning, CBA shares are 0.5% higher at $153.85. For the year to date, they've dropped 2.01%. 

The post ASX bank shares: One I'd buy and one I'd avoid appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's a welcome reprieve from the multiple share price declines the banking giant has endured over the past few months. 

For the year-to-date, CBA shares are now down 6.57%. They're 5.49% below the share price this time last year, and 21.3% lower than an all-time high in June last year.

In 2025, CBA shares enjoyed a fantastic rally, peaking at an all-time high of $192.00 per share in June. But the bank is facing strong headwinds right now that I think could keep pushing its share price lower.

CBA's share price is significantly higher than other major Australian banks. It's concerning because many experts don't think the share price is supported by the bank's earnings and core business strength. 

At the same time, CBA is facing ongoing net interest margin pressure due to intense market competition and regulatory changes. 

And not to mention, it looks like the Reserve Bank could keep the cash rate on hold for the foreseeable future, or even hike rates in 2026. This puts even more pressure on banks to compete.

I even think it's possible that CBA shares could crash below $100 this year.

I'd buy this ASX bank stock instead

Analysts expect that all of the big four major banks' shares will drop in 2026. Even sentiment on the smaller banks like Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) and Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) is bearish, with many analysts holding buy or sell positions.

But then there is Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO). Judo Bank is an Australian bank which was built to focus on providing financial services and lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). These SMEs have annual turnovers of up to $100 million.

The bank was founded in 2016 and received its banking license in 2019, so it's relatively new in comparison to the majors. It was listed on the ASX in 2021.

The bank provides business lending starting at $250,000 and touts itself as providing more flexibility than major banks. It also offers personal term deposit products and home loans.

Unlike its larger peers, the bank has had a strong start to FY26, and it looks set to continue. At its latest AGM, it said lending momentum was strong over the first quarter and that it's confident it can achieve FY26 guidance of $180-$190 million.

At the time of writing, Judo Bank's shares are up 0.27% to $1.88 a piece. For the year-to-date the shares are 4.17% higher, although they're still 4.82% below this time last year.

The best part is analysts are incredibly bullish on Judo Bank shares. 

UBS recently said it rates Judo as a buy, with a price target of $2.20, implying a potential 17.83% upside over the next 12 months. The broker thinks the bank is well placed to meet FY26 targets. It also noted that its new business origination "looks strong", with agriculture and regional lending doing a lot of the heavy lifting for its growth.

Some are even more optimistic. TradingView data shows 9 out of 10 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on Judo Bank shares. Analysts have a maximum target price of $2.40. That implies a potential 28.34% upside from here!

The post Forget CBA shares: I'm buying shares in another Aussie bank appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Analysts are always on the lookout for businesses that seem undervalued relative to their prospects, which could happen to be the case with any company in the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO).

While the ASX shares below may not be the most popular investment ideas, analysts think they're buys and could rise from here.

News Corp (ASX: NWS)

News Corp is the business behind a number of newspapers, including The Wall Street Journal, The Australian, Herald Sun, The Daily Telegraph, The Times, and The Sun. It also owns News.com.au, HarperCollinsPublishers, MarketWatch, and Dow Jones, as well as stakes in REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) and Realtor.com.

Broker UBS currently has a buy rating on News Corp, with a price target of $64.50, implying a solid rise over the next 12 months. The broker said the ASX share's FY26 first quarter was "good" with revenue and operating profit (EBITDA) slightly ahead of expectations, with "notable outperformance from Move and News Media", reflecting healthy operating conditions going into FY26.

In UBS' view, Dow Jones remains "the key to a meaningful NWS stub re-rate, more so than other segments like Move". The broker explained:

Key catalysts we are waiting for include: 1) acceleration in both rev and EBITDA growth at Move as we start to see first signs of green shoots, with further US rate cuts likely to support adjacency products and leads uptake; and 2) announcement of further AI deals.

We reiterate our Buy rating; with short- and medium-term drivers intact, we view NWS's fwd EBITDA of 12x and PE of 28x as attractive vs the past five-year average.

UBS predicts the company could generate US$1.08 of earnings per share (EPS) in FY26 and then $1.29 in FY27.

Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG)

IAG is one of Australia's largest insurance businesses with brands like NRMA, SGIO, SGIC, ROLLiN', and NZI.

UBS has a buy rating on the business, with a price target of $9.10. That also implies a rise of more than 10% in the next 12 months.

The broker noted that the ASX share has fully integrated its recently acquired RACQ Insurance business into its group reinsurance cover, confirming this will support targeted reinsurance synergies.

IAG's whole of account quota share has been expanded by 2.5% to 35% of gross earned premium (GEP) – IAG expects this to further reduce earnings volatility by sharing premiums and losses with reinsurers.

UBS predicts that the business could generate $1 billion of net profit in FY26.

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Judo is a financial institution focused on providing loans to small and medium businesses. It also offers term deposits as a form of funding its loans.

UBS rates Judo as a buy, with a price target of $2.20, implying a strong return over the next year if the market agrees with the broker's optimism.

The broker thinks the ASX share is well placed to meet FY26 targets.

Judo's net interest margin (NIM) – the profit it makes on its lending in percentage terms – guidance of over 3% is based on funding mix improvements, mainly relating to its deposit offering. The business is offering more term deposit durations, including five, seven, and eight-month terms.

UBS also noted that new business origination "looks strong" for the company, with agriculture and regional lending doing a lot of the heavy lifting for its growth.

Judo is expecting operating leverage to be a "multiplier" as it continues to scale with capacity.

The broker forecasts that the ASX share could make a net profit of $131 million in FY26 and $166 million in FY27.

The post Brokers rate these 3 ASX shares as buys in January appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the close of trading, the big four banks all were in the red. 

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) – down 2.95%
• National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) – down 2.37%
• Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) – down 2.2%
• Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) – down 1.96%

While it's just one day of trading, and we never overreact to a single day, the dominance of bank stocks in the Australian economy will often mean portfolios are impacted by poor performance. 

After a down day, are any of these stocks worth buying?

Let's quickly recap how bank stocks have performed recently. 

2025 performance

ANZ shares were the clear winner amongst the big four in 2025. 

These bank shares sit 24% higher than a year ago. 

Westpac shares were also a winner in 2025. 

At the time of writing, Westpac shares sit almost 17% higher than a year ago. 

Following behind, NAB are almost 10% higher than the start of 2025, while CBA are now almost even with January 2025. 

Which big four shares could be a buy in 2026?

With a strong performance amongst the big four bank shares in 2025, it seems experts are largely bearish in 2026. 

Valuations on these stocks remain full, with little upside tipped amongst brokers. 

Morgans has put a sell rating and $31.46 price target on NAB's shares, which would be a 24% decline from current levels. 

Westpac has an average one year price target of $33.41 according to TradingView (12% below current levels). 

ANZ's second half results disappointed Morgans.

The broker has a trim rating on ANZ's shares with a $33.09 price target (current share price hovering around $36). 

Meanwhile, CBA shares are tipped to keep falling from its current price of around $155: 

• Morgan Stanley has a price target of $144.80
• Jefferies has a target price of $143.87
• Morgans has a target of $99.81

Is it time to look outside the big four banks?

With little upside tipped for the big four banks, it could be an opportunity to look elsewhere. 

Despite being down roughly 5% over the past year, Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) is drawing attention from experts. 

The fast-growing challenger focussed on servicing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is projected to generate impressive profit in 2026. 

UBS has a price target of $2.20 on these bank shares which indicates upside of almost 28%. 

The post Australian Bank Stocks: Which ones look like a buy (and which don't) appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.