Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are 0.69% higher at $150.51 each at the time of writing on Tuesday.
It's a welcome reprieve from the multiple share price declines the banking giant has endured over the past few months.
For the year-to-date, CBA shares are now down 6.57%. They're 5.49% below the share price this time last year, and 21.3% lower than an all-time high in June last year.
In 2025, CBA shares enjoyed a fantastic rally, peaking at an all-time high of $192.00 per share in June. But the bank is facing strong headwinds right now that I think could keep pushing its share price lower.
CBA's share price is significantly higher than other major Australian banks. It's concerning because many experts don't think the share price is supported by the bank's earnings and core business strength.
At the same time, CBA is facing ongoing net interest margin pressure due to intense market competition and regulatory changes.
And not to mention, it looks like the Reserve Bank could keep the cash rate on hold for the foreseeable future, or even hike rates in 2026. This puts even more pressure on banks to compete.
I even think it's possible that CBA shares could crash below $100 this year.
I'd buy this ASX bank stock instead
Analysts expect that all of the big four major banks' shares will drop in 2026. Even sentiment on the smaller banks like Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) and Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) is bearish, with many analysts holding buy or sell positions.
But then there is Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO). Judo Bank is an Australian bank which was built to focus on providing financial services and lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). These SMEs have annual turnovers of up to $100 million.
The bank was founded in 2016 and received its banking license in 2019, so it's relatively new in comparison to the majors. It was listed on the ASX in 2021.
The bank provides business lending starting at $250,000 and touts itself as providing more flexibility than major banks. It also offers personal term deposit products and home loans.
Unlike its larger peers, the bank has had a strong start to FY26, and it looks set to continue. At its latest AGM, it said lending momentum was strong over the first quarter and that it's confident it can achieve FY26 guidance of $180-$190 million.
At the time of writing, Judo Bank's shares are up 0.27% to $1.88 a piece. For the year-to-date the shares are 4.17% higher, although they're still 4.82% below this time last year.
The best part is analysts are incredibly bullish on Judo Bank shares.
UBS recently said it rates Judo as a buy, with a price target of $2.20, implying a potential 17.83% upside over the next 12 months. The broker thinks the bank is well placed to meet FY26 targets. It also noted that its new business origination "looks strong", with agriculture and regional lending doing a lot of the heavy lifting for its growth.
Some are even more optimistic. TradingView data shows 9 out of 10 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on Judo Bank shares. Analysts have a maximum target price of $2.40. That implies a potential 28.34% upside from here!
