The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price climbed 1.39% at the close of the ASX on Tuesday, to $171.80 a piece.
For the year-to-date CBA shares are still 6.63% higher. They're also 15.97% higher than this time last year.
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Why are CBA shares in the spotlight this week?
There hasn't been any price sensitive news out of the banking giant this week.
But CBA has hit headlines on Monday after the Australian Financial Review reported that the Bank has referred two mortgage brokers, and a string of accountants, to police over suspected home loan fraud.
Last month the Australian Financial Review reported that the country's largest lender had uncovered a cluster of loans that had been procured using false documents including fake income statements created with the help of artificial intelligence, draft tax returns and shell companies. The loan fraud could extend to $1 billion.
The Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) has confirmed it is making compliance inquiries after the major bank self-reported concerns. The news has also raised broader concerns about lending processes and fraud risks across the banking sector.
It's not the only news putting pressure on the banking giant.
CBA and the rest of the big four banks were caught up in a broad market selloff on Monday after investor panic about a spike in oil prices. While the oil price has cooled from its multi-year peak, there is still concern about the knock-on-effect on Australia's inflation figures.
Some experts think that the Reserve Bank of Australia may decide to increase interest rates higher than expected, which would put pressure on mortgage holders.
The ASX banking giant's share price dipped 2.35% on Monday, but recovered most of the losses on Tuesday.
What's the outlook for the CBA share price?
The CBA share price suffered overall weakness throughout the final quarter of 2025 (along with the majority of the banking sector), with share price declines across the board. After the bank released an unexpectedly-positive half-year FY26 result in late-February, its share price rocketed higher.
But analysts think that the share price has now peaked. TradingView data shows that 14 out of 16 analysts have a sell or strong sell rating on CBA shares. One has a hold rating, and another has revised their stance to a strong buy.
The average target price is $131.41, which implies a 23.51% downside at the time of writing. Although some think the shares could sink even further, by 47.61% to just $90 a piece over the next 12 months.
