At the time of writing, shares are up 19.81% to 63.5 cents. By comparison, the S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) is hovering 1.8% higher.

Despite today's strong move, the stock remains under significant pressure over a longer period, down close to 50% in 2026.

Here's what the company announced.

Update addresses fuel price concerns

Alliance released a market update in response to recent volatility in jet fuel prices and its potential impact on the business.

According to the company, it has limited direct exposure to fuel price movements.

Under its wet lease arrangements, customers typically bear fuel costs. Meanwhile, contract flying customers are subject to fuel repricing mechanisms, which reduce Alliance's exposure to fluctuations.

As a result, the company said current jet fuel price volatility is expected to have minimal impact on its contracted operations or near-term earnings outlook.

Operations remain stable

Alliance also confirmed that it is not experiencing any fuel supply constraints.

Operational performance remains robust, with the company continuing to meet its contracted service levels. Management noted that on time performance and safety metrics remain a key focus.

The company added that it is maintaining close engagement with customers to support ongoing operations in the current environment.

Alliance highlighted that its contracted customer base continues to provide forward revenue visibility, with demand remaining broadly in line with prior periods.

No change to guidance

Despite the recent volatility across fuel markets, Alliance confirmed there is no change to its FY26 profit before tax guidance.

This suggests that at this stage, recent developments have not materially altered expectations for the year ahead.

Maintaining guidance may provide some reassurance to the market, particularly given the recent uncertainty across fuel markets and broader cost pressures.

The company is also continuing to progress its operational turnaround program. Management is focused on improving capital allocation, strengthening free cash flow, and better managing sales and customer relationships.

Foolish Takeaway

Today's share price move appears to reflect relief from investors following concerns around rising jet fuel prices.

Recent volatility in energy markets has raised questions about potential cost pressures for aviation-related businesses.

However, the market update has effectively addressed those concerns, reinforcing that its business model provides a degree of protection from fuel price swings.

Given the stock's sharp decline over recent months, today's update may also be prompting a short-term reassessment of risk.

The post This beaten-down ASX stock just jumped nearly 20%. Here's why it's suddenly flying appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the Alliance Aviation share price is down 0.85% to 58.5 cents.

The stock has had a rough start to the year and is now down more than 50% in 2026. It is currently trading near its lowest level in almost a decade.

The latest move comes as fresh insider buying has emerged from within the company's leadership ranks.

Let's unpack.

Chairman buys shares on market

According to a recent filing, Alliance Aviation Chairman James Jackson has been purchasing shares on market this month.

The disclosure shows that Jackson acquired 50,000 ordinary shares at 59.8 cents each on 13 March.

The purchase was made through an indirect holding associated with Federal Pacific Holdings Pty Ltd, an entity where Jackson is a director.

Following the transaction, Jackson now holds:

• 100,000 shares indirectly through Federal Pacific Holdings
• 20,000 shares indirectly through Mistover Pty Ltd
• 4,050 shares directly

The filing confirmed that the shares were acquired through on market trades.

Director buying is closely watched by investors because it can indicate confidence from insiders with detailed knowledge of a company's operations.

However, the purchase also comes during a challenging period for the aviation services provider.

Shares have slumped this year

Alliance Aviation's share price has been under heavy pressure in recent months.

The stock has now fallen more than 50% since the start of 2026. Over the past 12 months, the decline has been even steeper, with the company losing a significant portion of its market value.

The company currently has a market capitalisation of about $94 million and roughly 161 million shares on issue.

Alliance Aviation operates a fleet of aircraft providing contract, charter, and allied aviation services to the mining sector and major airlines across Australia.

Its business model includes fly in, fly out services for resource companies as well as aircraft leasing and wet lease arrangements with airlines.

Challenges continue to weigh on the business

Recent financial results highlight the pressures the company is facing.

Alliance Aviation reported a statutory loss of $105.8 million for the first half of FY26. The loss reflected a $164.8 million write down related to the value of its Fokker aircraft fleet and inventory.

Management also warned that its wet lease arrangement with Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) had become commercially unviable under existing terms.

Negotiations with Qantas are currently underway as the companies work to restructure aspects of the agreement.

The company has previously been linked to takeover interest. Qantas once sought to acquire the business in a $611 million deal, but the proposed transaction was blocked by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

Alliance Aviation shares remain under pressure as investors weigh the company's financial performance and ongoing strategic negotiations.

The post This beaten-down ASX airline stock just saw insider buying appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

The Alliance Aviation Services share price is down 7% to $1.35. This appears to have been driven by a couple of broker notes out of Morgans and Ord Minnett. Both brokers have downgraded this aviation services company's shares to a hold rating from buy this morning. Morgans said: "AQZ has released a disappointing trading update with FY26 NPBT expected to be ~40% below our previous forecast and consensus. The stock is now in a very tough spot – ex-growth and earnings going backwards, management changes, accounting issues, highly levered balance sheet, poor cashflow generation and deteriorating returns on capital. With AQZ's strategic review ongoing, we are hopeful of possible corporate activity (but not guaranteed). Despite the poor earnings performance, the stock continues to trade well below NTA of ~A$2.90 and aviation assets are liquid and remain in strong demand. We downgrade our rating to HOLD."

Brainchip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN)

The Brainchip share price is down almost 7% to 18.2 cents. This morning, this struggling semiconductor company announced a fully underwritten $35 million placement to professional and sophisticated investors. These funds are being raised at a 10.3% discount of 17.5 cents per new share. Brainchip's CEO, Sean Hehir, said: "This capital raise positions BrainChip to accelerate our leadership in edge AI and neuromorphic computing. With Akida 2.0 and our expanding product portfolio, we are unlocking new commercial opportunities in high-growth sectors and driving scalable innovation. Investor support enables us to execute with confidence and deliver long-term value through transformative, on-device intelligence."

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd (ASX: MYX)

The Mayne Pharma share price is down almost 4% to $4.72. This has been driven by news that the pharmaceutical company has received a notice of intention to appeal by Cosette Pharmaceuticals. This relates to last month's judgement in the Supreme Court of New South Wales, which found in favour of Mayne Pharma and dismissed Cosette's request to cancel its takeover offer. Mayne Pharma notes that the notice of intention does not include any reasons for Cosette's intention to appeal.

Perpetual Credit Income Trust (ASX: PCI)

The Perpetual Credit Income Trust share price is down over 6% to $1.13. This has been driven by news that the income trust intends to raise up to ~$267 million via a 1 for 2 pro-rata non-renounceable entitlement offer to eligible unitholders and a shortfall offer. The proceeds are intended to be used to enable the investment manager to actively pursue additional investments in accordance with its current investment strategy and objective.

The post Why Alliance Aviation, Brainchip, Mayne Pharma, and Perpetual Credit shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

The Alliance Aviation Services share price is down 39% to $1.55. This follows the release of a trading update after the reinstatement of its shares following a week-long suspension. Alliance revealed that it expects to report a profit before tax of $46 million to $50 million for FY 2026. It also expects its sizeable net debt to reduce to $392 million over the year.

Block Inc (NYSE: XYZ)

The Block Inc share price is down 14% to $97.17. Investors have been selling the payments company's shares following the release of its quarterly update. For the third quarter, Block posted a 2% lift in revenue and an 18% increase in gross profit to US$2.66 billion. The former was short of consensus estimates.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

The DroneShield share price is down a further 4% to $3.26. This counter drone technology company's shares have fallen heavily this week after it announced that almost 44.5 million performance options were vested. This happened after DroneShield achieved its performance hurdle of $200 million cash receipts in a 12-month rolling period. DroneShield's CEO, Oleg Vornik, commented: "Performance Options align the DroneShield team and its investors, enabling DroneShield to attract the best talent and incentivise performance, whilst reducing the cash burden on the Company as it continues to rapidly grow."

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

The Macquarie share price is down almost 7% to $202.55. Investors have been selling this investment bank's shares after its half year results fell short of expectations. For the six months ended 30 September, Macquarie posted a net profit of $1,655 million. While this was up 3% on the prior corresponding period, it was down a sizeable 21% on the second half of FY 2025. In addition, it fell short of Citi's forecast for a net profit after tax of $1,877 million. Macquarie's managing director and CEO, Shemara Wikramanayake, said: "The improved underlying performance across our operating groups in the first half reflects the ongoing benefits of our diverse business mix and our continued investment in opportunities that support long-term growth and deliver positive outcomes for our clients and communities."

The post Why Alliance, Block, DroneShield, and Macquarie shares are tumbling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The company last Friday asked that its shares be placed in a trading halt, before following that up with a request for a voluntary suspension on Tuesday.

Time needed to run the numbers

Alliance, which is 15.4% owned by Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN), told the ASX in a statement that it might need until the start of trade on Friday to collate the required information and release it to shareholders.

It said the figures were likely to surprise the market on the downside.

As the company said:

The voluntary suspension is necessary to assist Alliance in managing its continuous disclosure obligations as Alliance expects to make an announcement to the market in relation to a trading update, which will likely result in Alliance's FY26 earnings being materially lower than analyst consensus estimates of Alliance's FY26 earnings. This is a result of recent repairs and maintenance costs and depreciation charges being higher than anticipated.

Alliance said it needed until as late as Friday morning so that it can "prepare, validate and verify the impact of these increased expenses on its ongoing financial performance, before it releases its trading update to the market''.

Recent results steady

Alliance released its full-year results in August, with joint Managing Director Stewart Tully saying at the time that the company's operating performance was "outstanding".

Alliance delivered a net profit of $82.1 million, down 4.9% on the previous year, on revenue of $760.9 million, up 19.4%.

The company said at the time that organic growth in contract activity was expected to increase in the current financial year, and said it "remains committed to pursuing strategic aviation services transactions that complement our core operations as well as delivering enhanced profitability and generating substantial cash flows''.

Wilsons Advisory in mid-September downgraded its outlook for Alliance shares, lowering its price target from $3.89 to $2.58.

As Wilsons said at the time:

Alliance's recent FY25 result was in line with guidance, but outlook commentary has led us to recalibrate earnings forecasts and consider alternative valuation metrics. We reduce our operating fleet assumptions, which implies a more subdued earnings growth outlook over the medium term. 

Alliance shares last traded at $2.53, valuing the company at $407.4 million. The company is scheduled to hold its annual general meeting on 27 November.

The post Why have shares in Alliance Aviation been suspended from trade? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Wilsons has lowered its 12-month price target on Alliance stock from $3.89 to $2.58. The downgrade was driven by management commentary on the company's earnings report in mid-August.

Alliance's recent FY25 result was in line with guidance, but outlook commentary has led us to recalibrate earnings forecasts and consider alternative valuation metrics. We reduce our operating fleet assumptions, which implies a more subdued earnings growth outlook over the medium term. 

Wilsons said Alliance management indicated that organic growth in contract activity was expected to continue, driven by existing clients and new business opportunities, particularly in Western Australia and Queensland.

The company was also aiming to maintain a strict focus on cost control to preserve and where possible grow profitability.

Changes to our FY26 forecasts are minimal, with lower core flying earnings offset by stronger aviation services activity. For FY27 we reduce our earnings forecast materially to reflect a smaller operating fleet and lower aviation services activity. Our revised forecasts imply a broadly flat earnings per share profile over the medium term.

Wilsons is forecasting a total shareholder return of 22.2% over the next 12 months, made up of 16.6% share price appreciation and a 5.6% dividend yield.

Steady as she goes on the business front

While announcing its results last month, Alliance said it had a "solid" outlook for FY26.

With Qantas exercising its final four wet lease options in FY25, FY26 will mark the first full year of Qantas wet lease operations. This is anticipated to contribute to higher revenue and improved crew utilisation and efficiency. The group remains committed to pursuing strategic aviation services transactions that complement our core operations as well as delivering enhanced profitability and generating substantial cash flows.

The company said with the expansion of its E190 fleet coming to an end, it would shift its focus to "disciplined financial management, with a particular focus on optimising cash flow and reducing debt levels''.

"The group remains committed to pursuing strategic aviation services transactions that complement our core operations as well as delivering enhanced profitability and generating substantial cash flows," the company said.

Alliance shares were changing hands on Friday morning at $2.20, valuing the company at about $350 million.

The company operates 79 aircrafts in total, following its purchase of five Embraer E190s during the past year.

The post Alliance shares still tipped to fly high despite moderation in outlook appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ) is up almost 10% since January. 

Broker Bell Potter has identified two ASX industrials shares that are currently undervalued, placing a buy recommendation on both. 

These companies currently have market caps between $300 to $400 million.

It is essential to remember that with growth shares comes risk, so understanding the basics of growth stock investing is critical before starting a growth investing strategy.

Let's see what the broker had to say about these options. 

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

This aviation services provider serves the mining, energy, tourism, and government sectors and is currently the leading provider of FIFO (fly in, fly out) air charters in Australia.

Its share price has fallen 14.24% over the last year. 

However, broker Bell Potter has a buy recommendation and $3.80 price target. 

This indicates a 43.4% upside from its current share price. 

The broker was impressed by the record revenue of $339 million for the half year ending December 31, 2024. 

The broker also noted that the company maintains a focus on expanding its fleet, which is expected to support revenue growth.

Alliance Aviation demonstrated solid financial performance with growth in revenue and operational efficiency. The focus remains on strategic growth despite external challenges in labor costs and operational efficiency. Management is optimistic about future growth opportunities, mainly through fleet expansion and optimisation of services.

Bell Potter isn't the only broker tipping upside; Morgans also has a $3.80 price target on the aviation company's shares. 

An important date to watch will be August 20, when the company will release its full-year financial report for the year ended 30 June 2025.

Duratec Ltd (ASX: DUR)

Duratec Ltd is an investment holding company. The company's operating segment includes Defence; Mining and Industrial; Building and Facades, Energy, and Others. It generates maximum revenue from the Defence segment.

Its share price has risen 21.43% in the past year. 

At the time of writing, shares in the investment holding company are trading at $1.53. Bell Potter has a price target of $1.80, indicating 17.65% upside. 

The broker believes the company's exposure to defence has it well positioned to benefit from sector tailwinds. 

Ongoing investments in infrastructure, particularly linked to defence and energy sectors, represent favourable market conditions for Duratec. The focus on sustainable and efficient project solutions aligns well with current industry trends.

The post Two ASX industrials shares with buy recommendations appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Especially given that it believes they could rise at least 30% from current levels. Here's what you need to know about them:

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

This aviation services company's shares could be undervalued according to the broker.

It was pleased to see that the company has recently announced two transactions that have helped reduce its debt load meaningfully. It said:

AQZ recently announced two significant aviation services transactions. Both transactions have no impact on FY25 earnings guidance. The AVIAN E190 inventory transaction was included in FY25 net debt guidance. However, the engine sale was not, given previous expectations were for completion in FY26. We have therefore reduced our FY25 net debt forecast to A$390m from A$428.5m. Our FY26 net debt forecast is unchanged at A$360m. Our FY25 NPBT forecasts are unchanged. We have reduced FY26/27F NPBT by 3.3%/0.9% due to fewer aircraft now being in the operational fleet.

Morgans has a buy rating and $3.80 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $2.59, this implies potential upside of 47% over the next 12 months.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

Another ASX stock that could be destined to deliver big returns for investors is gold miner Northern Star.

While Morgans wasn't overly impressed with Northern Star's guidance for FY 2026, it remains positive on the investment opportunity here even after reducing its valuation meaningfully. It said:

FY26 guidance was outlined, with unit costs and capex materially above both Morgans and consensus forecasts. We expect a step-up in sustaining capital will be guided to align with the updated unit cost guidance.

Overall, the update disappointed and reflected in the share price action (–8.6%). FY26 adjustments were poorly flagged, with the new AISC midpoint +12% above consensus along with additional growth CAPEX items. We adjust our forecasts in line with updated guidance and reduce our price target to A$21.78ps (previously A$25.32ps). Today's sell-off reflects a rebasing of NST's share price following a strong FY25 performance (aided by the macro). Looking ahead, operational execution and disciplined capital cost control will be key to unlocking further value.

As mentioned above, Morgans has a buy rating and $21.78 price target on the ASX stock. Based on its current share price of $16.49, this suggests that upside of 32% for investors between now and this time next year.

The post Morgans says these ASX stocks can rise 30% to ~50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

One is involved in aviation services. Another in financial services. And the third is focused on fast food. And they've gained anywhere from 18% to more than 29% since the closing bell rang last Friday.

Which outperforming companies am I talking about?

Read on!

ASX All Ords shares smashing the benchmark this week

The first ASX All Ords share making investors very happy this week is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ).

Shares in the aviation services company closed last Friday trading for $2.17. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $2.57 apiece. This sees the Alliance Aviation share price up 18.4% for the week.

A lot of those gains are coming in today, with shares up 14.2% in intraday trade.

Investors have been piling into the stock following this morning's announcement that the company has entered into a binding agreement to sell its Embraer E190-E1 inventory to United States-based AVIAN Inventory Management for US$32.5 million.

"This strategic partnership puts Alliance in an industry leading position to support its expanding E190 operations with increased efficiency, improved fleet reliability, and strengthened service delivery for its diverse customer base," Alliance managing director Scott McMillan said.

Which brings us to the second ASX All Ords share rocketing higher this week, Humm Group Ltd (ASX: HUM).

Shares in the financial services company closed last week, trading for 44 cents, and are currently changing hands for 56 cents apiece. This puts the Humm share price up an impressive 27.3% since last Friday's close.

Humm shares grabbed investor interest after the company reported that it had received a non-binding indicative acquisition offer from The Abercrombie Group Pty Ltd.

The indicative offer would see Abercrombie acquire all of Humm's shares for a cash price of 58 cents each, which is almost 32% above last week's closing price.

Leading the pack

The top-performing ASX All Ords share for the week making my list today is Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF).

Shares in the KFC and Taco Bell restaurant operator closed last week at $7.22 and are currently trading for $9.32 each. That puts the Collins Foods share price up 29.1% over the week.

Most of those gains were delivered on Tuesday, when shares closed up 17.4% on the heels of the company's full-year FY 2025 results.

Highlights included a 2.1% year-on-year increase in revenue (from continuing operations), which reached a record of $1.52 billion.

Investors also reacted positively to the outlook for FY 2026, with Collins Foods forecasting underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) growth in the low to mid-teens for the 2026 financial year.

The post 3 ASX All Ords shares smashing the benchmark this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are racing higher:

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

The Alliance Aviation Services share price is up 15% to $2.58. Investors have been buying this aviation services company's shares after it shored up its balance sheet further. According to the release, the company has agreed to sell the majority of its Embraer E190-E1 inventory to AVIAN Inventory Management for a total consideration of US$32.5 million. The company notes: "This transaction, together with the Company's announcement earlier this week regarding the sale of engines to Beautech, are part of a broader initiative to strengthen the Company's balance sheet whilst enhancing operational readiness."

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP Group share price is up almost 3.5% to $37.33. The catalyst for this has been a rebound in iron ore prices. It isn't just BHP that is rising. The likes of Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) are all pushing notably higher today on the news. This has led to the S&P/ASX 200 Materials index rising 2.5% at the time of writing.

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

The Boss Energy share price is up 4% to $4.69. This morning, the uranium miner revealed that its partner and project operator, enCore Energy Corp (NASDAQ: EU), is making significant progress with the ramp up of the Alta Mesa project. Boss Energy holds a 30% interest and is entitled to receive 30% of the uranium produced. The executive chair of enCore Energy, William M. Sheriff, said: "The continued improvements in our rate of uranium extraction and advancement of wellfield development are truly a result of a top performing team focused on extraction and streamlined operations. We have always recognized the depth of experience and strength of our team, and their expertise is being clearly demonstrated during this ongoing ramp up phase."

Orthocell Ltd (ASX: OCC)

The Orthocell share price is up 5% to $1.27. Investors have been buying this regenerative medicine company's shares after it revealed that the first successful surgery using its flagship nerve repair product Remplir has been completed in the United States. The procedure was performed in a surgical procedure to repair a foot nerve injury. Management highlights that this a critical milestone in the commercialisation of Remplir in the US$1.6 billion US market.

The post Why Alliance Aviation, BHP, Boss Energy, and Orthocell shares are racing higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are climbing:

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

The Alliance Aviation share price is up 8% to $2.33. This morning, this aviation services company announced a binding sale and purchase agreement with Beautech Power Systems for the sale of 12 General Electric CF34-10 engines. The total consideration for this transaction is approximately $62.3 million, with the final amount subject to standard adjustments for delivery conditions and exchange rates. Management notes that the sale of these engines will lead to a significant reduction in the net debt position of the company.

Cogstate Ltd (ASX: CGS)

The Cogstate share price is up almost 10% to $1.48. The catalyst for this has been the release of an update on the neuroscience technology company's guidance for FY 2025. Thanks to a stronger than expected finish to the year, Cogstate now expects its revenue to be between US$52 million and US$54 million in FY 2025. This represents a 20% to 24% increase over the previous year. Growing at an even quicker rate is the company's profit. Management advised that profit before tax is forecast in the range of US$12 million to US$14 million. This is a significant improvement of 69% to 97% compared to FY 2024.

Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF)

The Collins Foods share price is up 19% to $8.64. Investors have been buying this KFC restaurant operator's shares after it released its full year results for FY 2025. Collins Foods reported a 2.1% increase in sales to $1,519.5 million but a 14.8% decline in underlying net profit after tax to $51.1 million. Nevertheless, the latter was comfortably ahead of the $44.3 million that analysts at Macquarie were expecting. Looking ahead, the company revealed that it is targeting year-on-year group underlying net profit after tax growth in the low to mid-teens in FY 2026.

Findi Ltd (ASX: FND)

The Findi share price is up 11% to $4.25. This morning, this payments company announced that it has selected DAM Capital Advisors and Ambit Private as book running lead managers for the initial public offering (IPO) of its Indian subsidiary, Transaction Solutions International. Findi's executive chairman, Nicholas Smedley, said: "The selection of DAM Capital and Ambit Private Limited as Book Running Lead Manager for the IPO of TSI is an important milestone in our strategy to bring TSI to the public markets in India and unlock value for Findi shareholders."

The post Why Alliance Aviation, Cogstate, Collins Foods, and Findi shares are roaring higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 200 airline stock has since rebounded to be trading at $9.34, down 1.8% for the day.

Let's find out why Qantas shares are in the red.

Qantas share price dips following broker downgrade

One possible factor driving the Qantas share price lower is a downgrade from top broker, Macquarie.

According to The Australian, Macquarie has lowered its rating on Qantas to neutral.

However, the broker has increased its 12-month share price target by 11% to $9.30.

Analyst Ian Myles said Qantas faces more competition on international routes from Qatar and Virgin, as well as Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) in the US, amid a weak Australian dollar.

He notes that Qantas's EV/EBITDA has returned to previous highs, and says:

Reports of falling domestic prices, competitive capacity on larger routes like US and Europe (are) clouding the FY26 outlook.

EV/EBITDA multiple is now at a 10-year peak (ex COVID) which captures the structural changes to the cost base.

He comments that Qantas aircraft is three to four years older, and this is reflected in the company's share price discount to international competitors.

Alliance Aviation disappoints the market

The Qantas share price may also be falling after fly in, fly out (FIFO) company Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ) reported its 1H FY25 results after the market close yesterday.

Qantas is a minority shareholder in Alliance, which provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services.

Investors were apparently unhappy with the report, with the Alliance Aviation Services share price falling 10.5% to a 52-week low of $2.48 today.

The stock has recovered slightly to be trading at $2.51, down 9.39%, at the time of writing.

Alliance reported total revenue from operations of $333 million, up 11.3%, and EBITDA of
$101.2 million, up 25.9%.

Flight hours increased to 58,362, up from 50,793 in the prior corresponding period. About 97% of those hours were under long-term contracts.

Alliance's Managing Director, Scott McMillan, said the company had delivered a "solid performance" despite rising costs and increased industrial relations activity.

He also noted that three aircraft were damaged during the period in incidents "beyond the company's control".

What's next?

Qantas will report its 1H FY25 numbers and announce its interim dividend on 27 February.

Macquarie expects a 21% increase in first-half profit for Qantas.

The broker says the FY25 outlook is strong given optimal load factors, lower oil prices, and the benefits of the share buyback.

The Qantas share price hit an all-time high of $9.64 on 6 February.

The post 2 things dragging the Qantas share price lower on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Here's what the broker is saying about these stocks:

IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL)

Morgans is tipping this language testing and student placement company as a cheap ASX share to buy.

While the broker expects FY 2025 to be a very difficult year for the company, it believes this is the bottom of the cycle and it will be onwards and upwards from here. It explains:

IEL expects the international student market (new admissions) to be down ~20-25% in FY25. IEL expect to outperform this via meaningful market share gains. We think FY25 is likely to be the trough year for 'student flows', impacted by tighter policies and the associated uncertainty. We expect IEL's earnings to fall ~12%, with some benefits from pricing; market share gains; and solid cost control. We upgrade to an ADD rating.

Last week, Morgans upgraded its shares to an add rating with an $18.20 price target.

Airtasker Ltd (ASX: ART)

Another ASX share that could be cheap according to Morgans is small jobs marketplace Airtasker.

It was pleased to see the company become cashflow positive in FY 2025 and believes this is "the likely new norm" now. Commenting on its results, it said:

With the recent quarterly trading update, ART had largely pre-released key operating metrics, with the FY24 result itself largely per expectations. However, it was a resilient performance by the marketplace overall, with an improved revenue profile despite top of funnel (GMV) headwinds. The business also achieved its planned target of being free cashflow positive (+A$1.2m) for the full year. We maintain our ADD rating.

Morgans has an add rating and 52 cents price target on its shares.

Alliance Aviation Ltd Services (ASX: AQZ)

Finally, Morgans thinks that this airline is "just too cheap" and sees it as an ASX share to buy now.

The broker was pleased with the company's record performance in FY 2024 and expects it to build on this next year. It said:

AQZ reported another record result in FY24, with underlying NPBT up 52% on the pcp and slightly ahead of MorgansF/consensus. We forecast earnings growth momentum (PBT growth of 10%) to continue into FY25 driven by deploying more E190 aircraft and increases in utilisation. We back this founder led management team with a strong track record to continue to execute from here. We maintain our ADD rating.

Morgans has an add rating and $4.10 price target on its shares.

The post Morgans names 3 cheap ASX shares to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX share that have failed to follow the market's lead are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL)

The AGL Energy share price is down over 2% to $8.60. This may have been driven by profit taking after a strong gain on Thursday following its half year results release. In addition, this morning, Macquarie responded by retaining its neutral rating on AGL's shares with a price target of $9.60.

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

The Alliance Aviation share price is down a further 5% to $3.01. Investors have been selling this aviation services company's shares after its half year results revealed an increase in its net debt to $244.6 million. This comes at a time when the company is planning to spend big on capital expenditures.

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

The Boss Energy share price is down 12% to $5.25. Investors have been selling ASX uranium shares today following the release of an update from one of the world's largest uranium miners, Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ). It revealed plans to increase its uranium production materially to take advantage of strong demand and weak supply. This may have sparked fears that uranium prices could pull back.

Silver Lake Resources Ltd (ASX: SLR)

The Silver Lake share price is down almost 3% to $1.09. This gold miner's shares have come under pressure this week after announcing plans to merge with Red 5 Ltd (ASX: RED). It seems that some investors are not overly keen on the plan and aren't sticking around to see how it turns out.

The post Why AGL, Alliance Aviation, Boss Energy, and Silver Lake shares are falling appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX share that have failed to follow the market's lead are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

The Alliance Aviation share price is down 12% to $2.93. This follows the release of the aviation services company's half year results. Alliance reported statutory profit before tax of $37.7 million, which was an increase of 296% year on year. Overshadowing this was the company's growing debt. Its net debt has increased to $244.6 million, which is more than half its market capitalisation. It notes that it "is at an inflection point when viewed using the scope of an auditor," which has noted an "Emphasis of Matter."

Platinum Asset Management Ltd (ASX: PTM)

The Platinum share price is down over 6% to $1.07. This has been driven by the release of the fund manager's funds under management (FUM) update for January. According to the release, Platinum reported FUM of $15,190 million, which was down from $15,447 million at the end of December. This was partly caused by net outflows of approximately $166 million for the month.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

The REA share price is down 3.5% to $177.49. This morning, this property listings company released its first half results and revealed revenue growth of 18% and profit growth of 22%. While this was ahead of expectations, its outlook commentary appears to have disappointed. This saw the company increase its cost guidance for FY 2024.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

The Santos share price is down over 1% to $7.32. Investors have been selling this energy producer's shares over the last couple of sessions after its merger talks with Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) concluded without a deal being reached.

The post Why Alliance Aviation, Platinum, REA, and Santos shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Well, the team at Morgans has been busy looking at the companies it has under coverage and has picked out a few cyclical ASX shares that it finds "interesting" right now.

These are construction services company Acrow Ltd (ASX: ACF), airline operator Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ), baby products retailer Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN), fund manager GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG), and energy producer Santos Ltd (ASX: STO).

What did the broker say about these cyclical ASX shares?

Commenting on the market and these ASX shares, the broker said:

We see the S&P/ASX 200 index rangebound in 2024. FY24 EPS is forecast to decline 5% before rebounding 5% in FY25, leaving the heavy lifting down to P/E multiple expansion, but at 16x vs the 14.5x 20-year historical average, there is limited scope for further expansion barring a sharp retreat in interest rates.

While we do not expect the index to do much at the headline level, high-level numbers conceal significant variation across sectors. Cyclicals including consumer and commercial services, media, retail and capital goods offer mid-to-high EPS growth into FY24 at lower relative valuations. Cyclical stocks that look interesting include Acrow, GQG Partners, Alliance Aviation, Baby Bunting and Santos.

What about ratings?

Morgans has price targets of $1.22 on Acrow shares, $5.20 on Alliance Aviation shares, $2.05 on GQG shares, $2.00 on Baby Bunting shares, and $7.80 on Santos shares.

For all but Santos, the broker has add ratings and valuations on these ASX cyclical shares that imply at least 10% upside from current levels.

And in the case of Alliance Aviation, its price target suggests upside of over 50% from current levels. This could make it worth watching very closely during earnings season.

The post Morgans names the ASX cyclical shares to buy for earnings season appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In early trade on Thursday morning the stock had fallen 2.57% from Wednesday's closing price of $4.86.

The stock has now set a new 52-week low as it battled two news items overnight that could have affected investor sentiment:

Merger dead, Qantas shares dive

The big news on Thursday morning was that the airline's proposed acquisition of charter and wet lease provider Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ) has been terminated.

The plan was first revealed in May last year, but in April this year the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission expressed its opposition to it, citing competition dilution concerns.

That disapproval ended up fatal, with Qantas and Alliance deciding to abandon the merger on Thursday morning.

A Qantas statement to the ASX stated "both companies acknowledge that there is no reasonable path forward for the deal at present".

The development followed Wednesday's news that the federal government, under pressure after denying rival Qatar Airways' request to bring more flights to Australia, backflipped on its earlier decision to stop funding the ACCC's quarterly reports on the aviation industry.

Both Virgin Australia and Regional Express Holdings Ltd (ASX: REX) had asked for the monitoring to continue, while Qantas remained against it.

Qantas board members facing investor fury

Meanwhile proxy advisors have urged investors to vote against the re-election of Qantas board member Todd Sampson at the annual general meeting on 3 November.

Shareholder advocacy group Ownership Matters made the recommendation to investors, according to Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) newspapers, given Sampson's skills in advertising and brand management.

The airline has taken a battering to its public image over the past few weeks, with its share price diving in response.

Among other shortcomings, the blows included a court ruling Qantas illegally fired nearly 1,700 employees, an accusation of selling seats on cancelled flights, a now-reversed decision to pocket $500 million of customer credits, and its possible lobbying of politicians for protection from rivals.

Earlier this week, another Qantas board member, Maxine Brenner, faced a 17% protest vote against her when going up for re-election on the Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) board.

That happened on the back of proxy advisor ISS recommending she not be re-elected to the telco's leadership based on her underperformance at Qantas.

The post Qantas shares hit 52-week low after airline cops multiple blows overnight appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Back in May 2022, Qantas agreed to acquire charter airline and wet lease provider Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ).

However, that proposal met a major hurdle in April when the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission announced it would reject the deal due to dilution of competition concerns.

It seems that ended up a fatal blow, as both airlines stated on Thursday morning that the merger has now been abandoned.

Both the Alliance Aviation and Qantas share price will be keenly watched by investors on Thursday morning.

Why the takeover was on the nose

The problem was that both airlines provide charter services to fly mining workers in and out of remote areas in Western Australia and Queensland.

"Qantas and Alliance currently strongly compete with each other in markets where there are few effective alternatives," ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said back in April.

"Flying workers in the resource industry to and from their worksites is an essential service for this important part of the Australian economy, so it is critical that competition in this market is protected."

In a statement to the ASX, both airlines disagreed that the merger would have reduced competition and indeed would have "created customer value".

"However, both companies acknowledge that there is no reasonable path forward for the deal at present," the announcement read.

"Qantas will continue to serve the growing resources sector through its existing charter operations. It currently has around 27% of the total charter market."

Qantas and Alliance alliance will continue

Qantas holds 20% of Alliance shares, which will be retained.

The long-term agreement for Alliance to operate up to 30 E190 aircrafts on behalf of Qantas will also continue.

Four more E190s will join the fleet from April.

"Alliance is an important partner for the Qantas Group and the E190s have helped us open new routes across Australia," said Qantas Associated Airlines and Services group executive John Gissing.

"These four new aircraft will provide additional capacity and connectivity in the domestic market."

Qantas shares have plunged 27.4% since 24 July on the back of multiple governance and customer relations scandals.

The annual general meeting will be held on 3 November in Melbourne, where shareholders are expected to protest at the board's performance.

The post Qantas share price on watch after big merger plan dies appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

There are plenty of large ASX blue chips in its funds, but the Contact investment team also think there are opportunities to be found lower down the market capitalisation list.

The idea is to invest in tomorrow's leaders within the mid and small-cap ASX shares space. The Contact Australian Ex-50 Fund aims to deliver net returns of at least 10% per annum.

Redox Pty Ltd (ASX: RDX)

Contact described Redox, which only listed last month, as a "traditional industrials company". It is a supplier of chemicals, ingredients, and raw materials to a wide variety of industries such as food and drinks, healthcare, animal healthcare, crop production and protection, detergents, and water treatment.

It's managed by the founding Coneliano family, which still owns 46% of the business.

The fund manager likes that Redox generates a high proportion of recurring revenue, shows strong returns on capital, and the ASX share has "significant growth opportunities via market share gains".

Contact is expecting, over time, Redox will generate earnings per share (EPS) growth and offer a "compelling dividend yield". The initial public offering (IPO) was valued at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 times, which the fund manager thought was attractive.

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

Alliance is an owner and operator of 80 to 114-seat jet aircraft, which it usually deploys to contracted aviation services. These include fly-in, fly-out (FIFO) contracts with major mines and 'wet lease' flying, contracted to major Australian airlines.

The ASX share also provides short-term charter services to customers on an ad hoc basis. Those sorts of customers include sporting teams, corporates, government agencies, tourism groups, and mining customers.

Contact noted Alliance Aviation recently increased its profit outlook. This was higher than the market was expecting, with profit around 15% better than expected. It also noted the company's acquisition of four additional E190 aircraft to satisfy increasing demand.

The profit upgrade also indicated increased wet lease flight hours from its additional capacity and higher use with the ASX share investing in expanding its fleet during the last few years.

Contact thinks the business is "well-positioned" to drive solid earnings growth.

There's also interest from Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) in a possible takeover. The ACCC has cited competition concerns, but the fund manager thinks the Alliance Aviation share price could materially increase if the deal progressed. This is because the bid price is $4.75, compared to the current Alliance Aviation share price of $3.29.

GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG)

GQG was the sixth-largest position in the fund's portfolio at the end of July 2023.

Contact notes GQG is doing well with both its funds under management (FUM) growth and investment performance.

Unlike many others in the funds management sector, Contact pointed out the ASX share continues to generate "solid net inflows" but it's "being priced by the market as a business in decline". Contact is positive on the outlook for GQG and it's backing the founder-led management team.

The post 3 ASX shares with 'significant growth opportunities' appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are storming higher:

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ)

The Alliance Aviation share price is up 13% to $3.20. This morning, the airline operator upgraded its profit guidance for FY 2023. Thanks to an increase in contracted aircraft in service, the company has lifted its underlying net profit before tax guidance to $56.9 million. This compares to its previous guidance of $50 million and $55 million.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

The Megaport share price is up a further 4% to $9.85. This interconnection services provider's shares have been on fire this week after it upgraded its guidance for FY 2023. Following today's gain, Megaport's shares are now up approximately 44% since this time last week. Pleasingly, UBS sees scope for more gains. It responded to the company's update by retaining its buy rating with an improved price target of $12.50.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

The Netwealth share price is up 6.5% to $14.63. Investors have been buying this investment platform provider's shares after it released its quarterly update. Netwealth's funds under administration (FUA) increased by $4.4 billion for the fourth quarter of FY 2023 to a record $70.3 billion. This comprises FUA net inflows of $3.2 billion and positive market movements of $1.2 billion.

Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL)

The Vulcan share price is up 4% to $4.49. This has been driven by news that the lithium developer has been given the approval to enter contract discussions to acquire an area of land for the construction of its integrated geothermal renewable energy and lithium extraction plant. The G-LEP construction is planned as part of Phase One of Vulcan's Zero Carbon Lithium Project in Germany.

The post Why Alliance Aviation, Megaport, Netwealth, and Vulcan shares are storming higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.