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Author Bio
James Mickleboro is an investment writer and analyst who has worked with The Motley Fool Australia for 10 years, covering ASX shares, market news, broker research, dividends, growth stocks, and long-term investing ideas.
Over that time, James has written extensively about Australian equities and developed a particular focus on helping everyday investors understand the stories behind share price moves, company announcements, broker views, and broader market trends.
His best investment recommendation was identifying Afterpay while it was still a small-cap growth share, before its rise into one of Australia’s biggest technology success stories. His worst investment lesson came from CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), where he was burnt by believing management could turn the business around sooner than the market ultimately allowed.
Areas of Expertise
ASX shares
Growth and dividend investing
Broker research
Interpreting company announcements
Market news
Portfolio strategy
Long-term wealth creation
Education
Bachelor of Politics, Philosophy and Economics. CFA Institute
Social MediaLinkedIn
James is the founder of Evermore Asset Management, which focuses on undercovered global stocks.
Favourite Investment Quote
"It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
— Warren Buffett
Published
What could some of Australia's best-known ASX shares be worth in 2030?
I've been running the numbers on five popular companies to see what sort of returns investors might expect over the next four years. And some of the results surprised me.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) was an obvious place to start. It is one of Australia's most highly regarded businesses, but investors already pay a substantial premium to own the big four bank. How much upside does that leave?
Then there's Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL). The supermarket giant has been struggling with increased competition and pressure on earnings, but could things look considerably better by 2030?
I was also keen to look at CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), which is working to restore its earnings growth, and Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), whose enormous data centre development pipeline could transform its business over the coming years.
And I couldn't leave out WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC). Its logistics software business has substantial growth opportunities, although the acquisition of e2open has introduced new challenges.
To estimate what these companies might be worth in 2030, I've projected their earnings through to FY 2030.
I've then applied a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that reflects each company's growth prospects, business quality, and historical valuation.
Finally, I've compared the results with their latest share prices to estimate the potential returns.
Of course, nobody can predict exactly what shares will be worth in four years. But I think this approach can help identify where investors might be getting a good deal (or not!).
And there were some interesting findings.
Image source: Getty Images
Coles shares
I'll start with Coles, which has recently disappointed investors with a weaker-than-expected trading update.
Competition has increased, customers remain price-conscious, and management is investing in lower prices to improve sales momentum.
That's putting pressure on near-term profits, but I think these investments could strengthen Coles' competitive position over time.
The ASX share also has opportunities to improve efficiency through its automated distribution centres and broader supply chain operations.
I believe these initiatives could help Coles grow earnings faster than sales over the coming years. For my calculations, I've assumed annual earnings per share (EPS) growth of approximately 7%, with a P/E ratio of 23 times in 2030.
I think that's a reasonable valuation for a defensive supermarket business with an established market position and relatively predictable earnings.
Based on its latest share price, my calculations suggest Coles shares could be worth $26.22 in 2030, representing approximately 18% potential upside.
That's not an extraordinary return, but it becomes more attractive when you include the dividends shareholders could receive along the way.
However, the other four companies produced some much more surprising results.
One popular ASX share could actually be worth less in 2030, even if its earnings keep growing. Meanwhile, another could deliver almost 80% upside without returning to its former premium valuation.
Here's what my calculations revealed.
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