S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks are getting ready to turn the calendar page on a tough month.
Indeed, while the ASX 200 has slumped 5.6% since market close on 25 August, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks – is down as steeper 8.3%.
Although most gold stocks have still strongly outperformed over the past full year, with the All Ords Gold Index still up 22.1% in 12 months, compared to the 1.4% one-year losses posted by the ASX 200.
As for the three big Aussie gold miners I'd buy today, Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are down 8% in a month and up 45.3% in a year, while Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are down 13.9% in a month and up 33.2% in a year.
It's a bit of a different picture for Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares, which are down 9.5% in a month and also down 2% in a year.
As you may know, Northern Star has faced some difficulties on and below the ground this year. Those include lower grades at some of its mines as well as lower overall gold production for FY 2026.
But I believe the miner's recent capex spend is set to pay off in FY 2027 and 2028, which should see a notable improvement in the share price performance.
Image source: Getty Images
What's been pressuring the ASX 200 gold stocks?
The common headwind pressuring Northern Star, Newmont, and Evolution Mining shares over the past month has been a sharp retrace in the gold price.
Trading for US$4,294 per ounce today, the gold price is down 7.7% since 25 August.
The gold price is now also down around 21% from its record highs, posted on 28 January.
A lot of that fall can be pinned on the outbreak of the Iran war. The conflict has sent global energy prices surging, stoking inflation and pushing central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the RBA, to increase interest rates. And gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in low or falling rate environments.
But the case for higher gold prices remains very much in play, which could usher in a big rebound for the recently beaten-down ASX 200 gold stocks.
What are the experts saying?
Hedge fund manager Raphael Lamm, who manages a long-short gold fund, expects that the falling gold price is likely to be short-lived.
Among the reasons Lamm expects a rebound in the price of bullion, which would also support ASX 200 gold stocks, is the "unsustainability of fiscal situations in key markets," with the United States government debt recently topping US$40 trillion.
According to Lamm (quoted by Bloomberg):
While there's been some headwinds to gold markets and the gold price since the Iran war, we think they're very temporary in nature. Most of the key drivers of demand for gold are going to remain intact or even strengthen over the medium term…
We started to increase our long positions relatively aggressively when the gold price got below $4,000, and now we're keeping it where it is, which is in the low- to mid-60% net long.
