If I had a spare $5,000 to invest in ASX 200 shares in July, these would be my top picks.
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Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)
Zip shares have had an incredible recovery through June. The shares have rebounded by over 36% over the past month and, at the time of writing, are up a huge 116% from a 52-week low recorded in mid-March.
There hasn't been any price-sensitive news out of Zip to explain the increase over the past month. I think the rebound shows that investors are finally buying back into the growth potential of ASX 200 tech stocks after some positive quarterly results.
And it looks like there is plenty more to come. Market Index brokers rate the ASX 200 shares as a strong buy and tip around a 23% upside to an average target price of $3.86 over the next 12 months.
Technology One Ltd (ASX: TNE)
Technology One shares have begun to regain some momentum over the past week. It's been a rocky start to the year, but the shares have now recovered over 47% since crashing to an 18-month low earlier in the year. It looks like the sell-off was part of the overall sector-wide shift away from high-growth technology shares.
Thankfully, the company has continued to post positive financial results. The SaaS (software as a service) ERP business posted its 17th consecutive first-half profit result in mid-May and reaffirmed FY26 guidance.
I also think that, as a business, TechnologyOne looks like a promising long-term investment thanks to its recurring revenue and sticky subscriber base. Analysts all rate the shares a strong buy and tip 9% upside to an average target price of $32.38 at the time of writing.
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)
The ASX 200 gold miner's shares have lost 37% of their value since peaking at an all-time high in early March. For the year-to-date the shares are now down around 18%. Investors turned their back on the stock shortly after its operational update and a downgrade of its FY26 production outlook.
Gold price weakness, inflation concerns and liquidity pressures have all compressed the company's share price. But the experts still see a recovery for gold this year, which could boost Northern Star's financials.
Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the Northern Star shares. The $27.74 average target price implies a potential upside of around 38% at the time of writing.
Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN)
Virgin Australia shares fell to an all-time low of just $2.16 in early May but have since rebounded 42%. The ASX airline stock has struggled with headwinds from conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel prices this year. But it now looks like investors are slowly rotating back into airlines and travel companies after reports of robust travel demand.
The company recently confirmed its FY26 guidance, which has helped boost investor confidence. I like the look of this ASX 200 travel share, and analysts are very bullish on it. The majority of brokers rate the shares as a strong buy. They tip an upside of 14% to an average $3.49 target price over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)
REA shares have followed a steady and consistent downward trajectory through the first six months of 2026. For the year-to-date the shares are now down around 25% and they're trading at around a three-year low.
The company has been hit by multiple headwinds recently, including rising interest-rate expectations, weaker housing activity, and concerns about lower advertising revenue. Recent earnings also failed to reassure investors. It does look like there is potential for a rebound ahead for the ASX 200 shares, though, if interest rates stabilise and property listings and transactions pick back up.
Market Index data show that brokers are mostly split between hold and buy ratings, but the average $181.20 target price still implies an upside of around 30% at the time of writing.
