It's dividend season for ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and several providers have announced their next payments.
Among them is VanEck, which has announced an estimated $17.99 per unit distribution for VanEck Gold Miners AUD ETF (ASX: GDX).
GDX ETF is trading at $114.80 per unit, up 2.3%, on Monday.
This means this next estimated distribution represents a whopping 15% dividend yield in a single payout.
VanEck will confirm the final amount tomorrow.
But whatever it is, it will be the biggest distribution this ASX ETF has ever paid since its inception in 2015.
For comparison, the FY25 distribution was 63 cents per unit.
Investors who own or buy GDX ETF before it goes ex-dividend on Wednesday will be entitled to the payment.
Image source: Getty Images
Why is this dividend so enormous?
ASX ETF providers call their payments 'distributions' rather than 'dividends' because they comprise several components.
The components include dividend income from the companies the ETF is invested in, and capital gains from the sale of stocks.
So why is this next one from GDX ETF so big?
For starters, ASX GDX pays distributions once per year, so this next payment represents earnings over a 12-month period.
But that's only a minor reason. The primary driver is the runaway gold price, which has enabled miners to earn a motza.
Gold price bull run
The gold price has soared over several years now. In CY25, the gold price leapt a staggering 65% — its best year since 1979.
Even more amazing is that it followed an already impressive growth rate of 27% in CY24.
The bulk of this growth is down to central banks around the world buying gold to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.
The catalyst was the freezing of Russia's foreign-currency reserves after the Ukraine invasion in 2022.
On top of that was concern over new US policies under President Donald Trump since his inauguration in early 2025.
New tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on the US currency, and nations increasingly perceived the US as a less reliable defence partner.
All of this drove central banks to move increasingly away from US bonds. Gold — long considered a safe haven — was the best alternative.
Additionally, post-COVID inflation began to settle, interest rates fell globally, and the appeal of risk-free investments like cash fell.
Institutional investors and professional traders caught on over time, then we retail investors followed.
Large inflows into gold ETFs, especially in 1H FY26, sent the gold price to a record US$5,608 per ounce before a 21% crash in January.
Despite the correction in price to about US$4,405 per tonne, experts said gold miners were still going to make a tonne of money.
Warwick Grigor, an analyst at mining investment specialists Far East Capital, said implied profitability for gold producers was between US$3,000 and US$4,000 per ounce with the gold price at that level.
The gold price weakened further over 2H FY26 to trade at US$4,059.69 per tonne today.
On Grigor's calculations, that still meant plenty of margin for miners, and it's likely a big reason for GDX ETF's mega distribution.
Mega capital gains as ASX ETFs and gold mining shares soar
While the gold price was ascending rapidly in CY24 and CY25, international and ASX 200 gold mining shares skyrocketed.
In Australia, the ASX 200's largest gold mining share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), ripped 73% higher in CY25 alone.
Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares soared 164% while Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares rocketed 152%.
The Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) share price ascended 196% and Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares ripped 194%.
Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG) shares tripled in value, while Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) more than doubled.
International gold shares may have done even better, and GDX ETF holds mining shares from all over the world.
This is likely another reason why GDX is paying out big-time this season: realised capital gains accumulated over several years.
More about GDX ETF
The GDX ETF seeks to track the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (AUD) Index.
ASX GDX invests in 105 gold mining shares, with 44% in Canada, 24% in the US, 9% in Australia, and 6% in Brazil.
The index only invests in miners with a market cap above US$750 million and an average daily traded value of at least US$1 million.
The free float market cap-weighted index applies a capping scheme to individual shares to ensure diversification.
GDX's ETF has total net assets of $1.3 billion.
VanEck charges investors a 0.53% management fee.
View a list of other VanEck ETF distributions this season, as well as a list of Vanguard ETF dividends here.
