Liontown, South32 and Mineral Resources: Brokers rate 2 ASX mining shares as a buy and 1 to hold

Brokers expect a downside ahead for one of these ASX mining stocks.

ASX mining shares have experienced a strong uptick so far in 2026, driven by surging commodity prices and soaring investor sentiment. Lithium has experienced a resurgence, while copper is outperforming. Even iron ore has remained surprisingly resilient.

Find out the latest update from commodity players Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR), South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) and Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares, and what brokers expect next.

Three miners looking at a tablet.

Image source: Getty Images

Buy South32 shares

South32 shares are storming higher in Wednesday morning trade. At the time of writing, the commodities miner's shares are up around 5% to $4.85 a piece. 

The latest increase means the ASX mining shares have now jumped over 20% following the company's March 2026 quarterly update last week.

The shares are now up 37% year to date and are an impressive 57% higher than a year ago.

The latest rally comes off the back of the miners' reported US$121 million increase in net cash for the quarter. Meanwhile, its Brazil Alumina site delivered record year-to-date production, up 5%.

As a diversified global miner, with exposure to several commodities including aluminium, copper, zinc, and manganese, South32 has benefited from investor demand for diversified exposure to commodities related to the energy transition. South32 is also attracting attention because it is less dependent on iron ore than other major miners. 

Market Index data shows brokers rate the ASX mining shares as a strong buy. Although after the latest strong rally, the current average target price of $4.89 implies a potential 1% upside at the time of writing.

Buy Mineral Resources shares

Mineral Resources shares are also climbing higher today. At the time of writing, the shares are up around 1% to $71.95 each. Mineral Resources shares have also flown 12% higher over the past week.

The shares are now 30% higher year to date and up a huge 202% over the past 12 months.

The ASX mining stock has a major exposure to lithium and has ridden the wave of soaring lithium carbonate prices through early 2026. Prices are now trading around the highest level since 2023, thanks to renewed and growing long-term demand for lithium batteries.

Last Tuesday, the miner confirmed it will restart operations at its 100%-owned Bald Hill lithium mine. The company said the decision follows a "significant and sustained recovery" in lithium prices.

The restart is expected to move quickly, too, with activity due to ramp up in late May before crushing and mining operations start in June. The lithium miner expects restart costs in the fourth quarter of FY26, totalling $20 million.

Brokers rate the ASX mining shares as a strong buy and tip a potential 2.8% upside to an average $74.60 target price at the time of writing.

Hold Liontown shares

Liontown shares have tumbled into the red on Wednesday morning. At the time of writing, the shares are down 0.2% to $2.32 a piece.

Despite the tumble, the lithium miner's shares are still up 43% year to date and a massive 263% higher than 12 months ago.

Liontown has also ridden the lithium rebound as investors look toward the company's production growth potential. Investors have leaned into Liontown shares on the pretence that it has a long-term ability to benefit from strong lithium pricing and expanding global EV demand.

The miner's development pipeline and exposure to future supply chains have also attracted investor attention.

But, Liontown is practically a pure-play lithium miner and its assets are overwhelmingly lithium-focused. This means it is sensitive to and heavily dependent on lithium price trajectories. If the price rally starts to reverse, the business could be at risk.

After the latest rally, analyst sentiment for the ASX mining shares has softened. At the time of writing, brokers rate the stock as a hold, with an average target price of $1.99. That implies a 15% downside from here.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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