It has been a big year for BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shareholders, but Monday has brought a step backwards.
BHP shares are down 2.56% to $65.58 at the time of writing, pulling further away from the record high of $68.77 reached last week.
That still leaves the mining giant up around 11% over the past month and 44% since the start of 2026.
So, after such a huge run, is now the time to sell BHP shares?
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Brokers aren't convinced
One thing that stands out is how far BHP has moved above most broker price targets.
According to the latest TipRanks figures, the average 12-month target across 14 analysts is $58.68. This is roughly 10.5% below the current share price.
The consensus is cautious, with just one buy rating, 12 holds, and one sell.
Morgan Stanley has a buy rating and $67.50 target. Berenberg has a hold rating and $64.22 target, while UBS sits at $59.
JPMorgan has a $56.66 target, Morgans has a sell rating and $55.30 target, and Deutsche Bank is at $51.
BHP is also trading on a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of just over 24 and a dividend yield of about 3%.
Why investors have been buying
It is not hard to see why BHP shares have had such a strong year.
The miner recently reported underlying EBITDA of around US$33 billion in FY26, helped by stronger commodity prices and record iron ore production in Western Australia.
Copper is becoming a much bigger part of the business. It contributed more than half of the underlying EBITDA for the first time, while BHP produced around 2 million tonnes for a second straight year.
The company is also targeting around 40% growth in copper production by FY35 through projects across Australia, Chile, and Argentina.
Net debt fell below US$9 billion, while BHP declared a final dividend of 99 US cents per share.
What about the September effect?
There's another reason investors may be a little cautious heading into September.
Historically, it has been a tough month for the Australian share market. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has averaged a 0.94% fall in September since 1992 and finished the month higher just 32% of the time.
Of course, that doesn't mean BHP shares are guaranteed to fall next month.
But after such a stellar year, September's poor track record may be something investors keep in the back of their minds.
Foolish takeaway
After a 44% rise this year, I can understand why some investors might be tempted to take some money off the table.
The broker targets suggest BHP is no longer cheap, and another pullback wouldn't be surprising.
But I would be careful about selling a high-quality business simply because the shares have performed well or September has a poor historical record.
BHP still owns world-class iron ore and copper assets, and generates plenty of cash.
The valuation may look a little stretched today, but over the long term, I think the quality of the business matters far more than what happens over the next month.
