BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have enjoyed another powerful month, climbing to a record high of $68.77 last week.
Although the mining giant has slipped 3.5% over the past five trading days, it remains up 10% in August, taking its year-to-date gain to 45% and its 12-month return to 54%.
With BHP now knocking on the door of $70, the question is whether another record is around the corner or whether the rally is running out of steam.
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What happened in August?
BHP shares began trending higher in early August as investors became increasingly bullish about copper prices.
The rally accelerated after BHP delivered its FY26 results on 18 August, with the miner reporting a record underlying EBITDA result and a 27% increase in earnings.
The strong operational performance across its key businesses gave investors another reason to pile into the stock.
It is not difficult to understand the enthusiasm. BHP generated underlying EBITDA of around US$33 billion in FY26, supported by stronger commodity prices and record iron ore production in Western Australia.
But copper is increasingly becoming the star of the show. Copper contributed more than half of BHP's underlying EBITDA for the first time, while production reached around 2 million tonnes for a second consecutive year.
The company is targeting approximately 40% growth in copper production by FY35 through projects across Australia, Chile and Argentina, potentially giving shareholders significant exposure to the metal's long-term demand outlook.
Meanwhile, net debt fell below US$9 billion and BHP declared a final dividend of 99 US cents per share.
Can BHP shares break $70?
The market isn't universally convinced that the rally can continue.
TradingView data shows 14 of 24 analysts have a hold rating on BHP shares. Six rate the stock a strong buy, while four have a sell or strong-sell recommendation.
More importantly, the average analyst price target of $60.52 sits below the current share price, implying roughly 9% downside over the next 12 months.
But that average masks an extraordinary disagreement among analysts.
The lowest target is just $34.77, implying a potential 35% plunge. At the other end of the spectrum, the highest target is $67.11, a fraction higher than the current share price.
What do the major brokers expect?
Morgan Stanley is relatively bullish, with a buy rating and $67.50 target, although that target is already below BHP's latest record.
Berenberg has a hold rating and $64.22 target, while UBS is targeting $59.
JPMorgan has a $56.66 target, Morgans is considerably more bearish with a sell rating and $55.30 target, and Deutsche Bank has a $51 target.
So, can BHP break $70?
The fundamentals remain compelling, particularly the growing contribution from copper. But with shares already up 45% in 2026, investors may need another surge in commodity prices or stronger-than-expected earnings growth to push BHP decisively into record territory.
