Buy, hold, sell: South32, Mineral Resources, BHP shares

Find out which ASX mining stock is tipped to climb higher over the next 12 months.

ASX mining shares finished strongly in August, driven by stronger commodity prices and robust FY26 earnings. Among some of the biggest names are South32 Ltd (ASX: S32), Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

Let's take a look at how the mining giants are tracking today. And what brokers tip for the next 12 months.

Two miners laughing and having fun while using smart phone during their coffee break.

Image source: Getty Images

Buy South32 shares

The ASX miner announced a substantial jump in its ore reserve estimate at its Sierra Gorda mine in late-August. The increase comes after significant drilling to define the orebody, providing more certainty over future production. The update extends the mine's reserve life by another five years, to 2045.

The company also posted a robust FY26 financial result last week. The miner posted a 1% increase in revenue from continuing operations, a 28% increase in EBITDA, and a 55% increase in underlying earnings.

At the time of writing, the shares are flat for the day at $5.16 a piece. South32 shares are now up around 45% for the year to date and are 89% higher than 12 months ago.

Going forward, brokers are positive about the outlook for the stock. Market Index data shows the majority have a buy rating but after a recent rally, the $5.09 average target price now implies a downside of around 1%.

Buy Mineral Resources shares

The lithium miner posted its strongest-ever annual results last week. Mineral Resources reported a 44% year-on-year increase in revenue, an 183% increase in underlying EBITDA, an 831% increase in underlying NPAT, and a 236% increase in reported NPAT for FY26.

Management also announced it would bring back shareholder dividends. For FY26, the miner will pay a fully-franked dividend of 83 cents per share.

Mineral Resources said its record performance was driven by growth in the company's Mining Services division, the ramp-up of Onslow Iron to nameplate capacity, and improved results in its lithium operations.

At the time of writing, the lithium miner's shares are up around 0.5% for the day and are changing hands at $64.79 a piece. For the year to date, the shares are now 17% higher, and they're a huge 76% above trading levels seen this time last year.

Going forward, it looks like analysts are positive about the shares. But after a strong rally this year, we could be reaching around fair value. Market Index data shows the majority have a buy rating on Mineral Resources shares, and the $65.36 average target price implies a potential 1% upside ahead.

Hold BHP shares

BHP started trending higher in early August as the market grew more bullish on copper prices.

But the share price picked up pace after the miner reported its record FY26 earnings results on the 18th of August. The mining giant posted a strong operational performance across all its key segments. It also announced an impressive 27% increase in its underlying EBITDA. 

Investors were clearly thrilled with the update and many rushed to snap up a stake in the mining company.

At the time of writing, BHP shares are up largely flat for the day so far, and are changing hands for $66.20 a piece.

But it looks like the experts are now concerned that the ASX mining shares have now passed their peak. Market Index data shows the majority have a hold rating on BHP shares. The $61.78 average target price now implies a potential downside of around 7%, at the time of writing.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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