BHP shares are pulling back from a record high, and after the year shareholders have enjoyed, a breather was probably overdue.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) closed on Monday at $66.23, down from an all-time high of $68.77 last week.
That still leaves Australia's largest listed company up roughly 44% in 2026 and close to 56% over the past twelve months.
With such strong results, is there space left for BHP shares to go further?
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How the FY26 results impacted BHP shares
BHP handed down its full-year result in late August, and the numbers are behind much of the recent share price strength.
Attributable profit came in at US$9.8 billion, up 9% on the prior year. Revenue rose 15% to US$58.8 billion.
Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation landed at roughly US$33 billion, while net debt finished the year below US$9 billion.
The results become interesting when we look at the split between BHP's divisions.
Copper contributed US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA, a 48% increase, and accounted for 54% of group earnings.
That is the first time copper has out-earned iron ore across a full financial year.
BHP produced around 2 million tonnes of copper for a second consecutive year, and it is now targeting roughly 40% production growth by FY35 through projects in Australia, Chile and Argentina.
Why brokers are cautious on BHP shares
Here is the awkward part.
The share price has run well past where most analysts think it should sit.
Consensus data puts the average twelve-month target at $58.68 across 14 analysts, roughly 10% below the current price.
There is one buy rating, twelve holds and a single sell.
Morgan Stanley is the most positive at $67.50, while Morgans sits at $55.30 and Deutsche Bank at $51.
Not everyone is bearish.
Morgans analyst Damien Nguyen still sees a clear case for owning the miner:
BHP offers exposure to a portfolio of high quality mining assets and remains well positioned to benefit from long term demand for copper and other critical minerals.
The stock trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of a little over 24, which is expensive by its own historical standards.
The dividend, and the September question
Income investors have a decision to make this week.
BHP declared a final fully franked dividend of 99 US cents per share, or about A$1.392.
The shares trade ex-dividend on Thursday 3 September, with payment due on 23 September.
Together with the interim payment, that takes FY26 distributions to $2.431 per share and the fully franked yield to about 3.7%.
There is also a seasonal wrinkle worth knowing about.
September has historically been the weakest month of the year for the Australian market, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) averaging a 0.94% decline since 1992 and finishing higher only 32% of the time.
Foolish takeaway
I would not chase BHP shares at this level, but I would be equally reluctant to sell them.
The valuation is full, the broker targets sit below the share price, and this month being September could be a bad omen.
Against that, the copper transition is BHP's next growth lever, the balance sheet is in good shape, and the cash keeps arriving.
Owning a world-class asset base at a fair price has usually worked out better than trying to time the last 10% of a rally.
As such, for long-term holders, BHP shares still look like a business worth owning rather than a trade worth exiting.
