Australian farmers will plant a smaller winter crop this year, according to Rabobank's 2026/27 Australian Winter Crop Forecast.
Rabobank, which is a specialist agribusiness bank, says producers face mixed weather conditions and significantly higher input costs.
It estimates Australia's winter cropping area will be 23.1 million hectares, down 8% on last year and 4.3% below the five-year average.
The Australian RaboResearch team predicts wheat cropping will fall 20.4% to 9.8 million hectares this season.
However, barley, canola and pulse plantings are forecast to increase.
Report author, Vitor Pistoia, a senior grains and oilseeds analyst at RaboResearch, said:
Australia enters the 2026/27 winter cropping season with a more uneven and weather-dependent cropping area than in recent years.
The season is opening with a clear geographic split across Australia's cropping regions.
Conditions on the northern east coast, particularly in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, have been dry through summer and early autumn, leaving limited topsoil moisture and delaying sowing.
Pistoia said lower rainfall was likely amid the high risk of a shift towards El Nino conditions this season.
He added that higher costs, particularly for fertiliser and diesel due to the Iran war, were influencing farmers' decisions this winter.
These higher costs are encouraging shifts towards lower-input crops and contributing to a reduction in total cropping area.
Let's take a look at experts' ratings on three ASX agriculture shares.
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Australian Agricultural Company Ltd (ASX: AAC)
Australian Agricultural Company shares have fallen 9.5% over the past 12 months.
Last week, Australian Agricultural Company reported a record operating profit of $71.6 million for FY26, up 23% year-over-year.
After reviewing the numbers, Bell Potter kept its buy rating in place on the ASX agriculture share.
The broker said:
AAC delivered a record operating performance that was understated, due to the inclusion of $9m in flood related costs.
While costs are currently experiencing inflationary pressure (grain and oil), continued strong pricing in core offshore markets, uplifts in grainfed cattle capacity (FY27-28e sales program) and a larger herd are reason for optimism in future periods.
Bell Potter reduced its 12-month price target from $1.95 to $1.85, implying a 43% potential upside from here.
Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)
The Graincorp share price has tumbled 32% over the past 12 months.
After reviewing the company's 1H FY26 results, Morgans downgraded the ASX agriculture share to a hold rating.
The broker commented:
GNC's 1H26 result was weak but broadly in line with consensus at the NPAT level.
GNC reported a significantly larger than expected cash outflow and its core cash position was also lower than expected.
The era of special dividends now appears to be over. GNC reiterated its FY26 earnings guidance.
The outlook for the FY27 winter crop is one of caution given grain grower's cost pressures and the BOM's dry outlook.
GNC's strategic assets are worth materially more than its current share price. However, given earnings look set to decline again in FY27, the stock is lacking share price catalysts, and we move to a HOLD recommendation.
The broker has a $5.62 price target, which still implies a potential 11% upside ahead.
Ricegrowers Ltd (ASX: SGLLV)
The Ricegrowers share price has lifted 11% over 12 months.
On The Bull, Mark Elzayed from Investor Pulse said the Sunrice brand owner had benefited from elevated rice prices and strong export demand.
However, he has a sell rating on this ASX agriculture share.
Elzayed explained:
… we believe much of the good news is already reflected in the share price of this global group.
Moving forward, we expect earnings growth to moderate as global rice supplies normalise amid what we consider to be elevated input costs.
The company is up against strong competition in several markets.
Margins also face pressure from freight and currency volatility, potentially limiting near term upside.
