BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are rising strongly on Friday, up 2.2% to $58.09 apiece.
FY26 was a big year for the 'Big Australian'.
The BHP share price soared 62% in FY26 to finish at $59.40 on 30 June.
BHP was one of the strongest performers for capital growth amongst the ASX 200 large-cap shares last year.
The company benefited from a rotation into mining stocks, as well as an 18% rise in the copper price and a 7% increase in the iron ore price.
While BHP is still a major iron ore producer, it is also now the world's largest copper producer.
Copper, essential for electrification, rose to a record US$6.60 per pound in May amid high demand due to the green energy transition.
In 1H FY26, copper made up for more than half of BHP's underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA).
In its 3Q FY26 update, BHP said strong production at Escondida in Chile and Antamina in Peru meant it expected group production for full-year FY26 would be at the upper end of its guidance.
There was mixed news relating to other parts of the business in FY26.
In February, BHP announced a long-term silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals Corp (NYSE: WPM).
The miner received US$4.3 billion upfront, which strengthened the balance sheet, for a share of its silver from Antamina.
But there was trouble at the Jansen potash project in Canada. In June, BHP revealed a US$2 billion estimated cost blow-out for Stage 2.
The miner said it now expected Stage 2 to cost US$6.9 billion, up from the previous estimate of US$4.9 billion.
Jansen Stage 1 remains on track for first production in FY27.
In March, we learned that CEO Mike Henry would be stepping down on 1 July after six-and-a-half years at the helm.
He was replaced by Brandon Craig, who has worked at BHP for 25 years and was formerly President of the Americas division.
In May, BHP took back its crown as the ASX 200's largest company by market cap from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).
Image source: Getty Images
What do the experts think about BHP shares?
Looking ahead to FY27, brokers have a mixed view on whether BHP shares are a buy, hold, or sell.
They also offer a range of 12-month price targets on the ASX 200 mining share.
Let's start with some consensus views, then hear some explanations from individual analysts regarding their ratings.
On the TradingView platform, there is a consensus neutral rating (equivalent to a hold call) from 20 analysts.
Four analysts give BHP shares a strong buy rating, 13 say hold, two say sell, and one analyst has a strong sell rating.
The 12-month share price targets among those 20 analysts range from $43.94 to $94.10.
On the CommSec trading platform, 19 analysts provide a hold consensus rating.
Four give the miner a strong buy rating, 14 say hold, and there is one strong sell recommendation.
Who says buy, and why?
Morgan Stanley maintained its buy rating on BHP shares with a 12-month price target of $67.50 yesterday.
Deutche Bank also gives BHP shares a buy call, and raised its target from $50.25 to $52.19 earlier this month.
Blake Halligan from Catapult Wealth also has a buy rating on BHP shares and explains why:
The global miner holds dominant positions in iron ore and copper and is leveraged to increasing demand during the energy transition.
Despite the Jansen impairment and the risk of industrial action at iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, near term earnings momentum remains strong.
The balance sheet remains robust with low net debt, while a recent dividend yield above 3 per cent adds income appeal.
Who has a hold call on BHP shares?
Hold is the dominant rating among the experts today.
Morgans reiterated its hold call on BHP shares yesterday, and increased its 12-month target from $54.90 to $59.80.
Bank of America, which has a history of optimistic price targets on BHP shares, reiterated its hold rating on Wednesday and reduced its target from $70 to $65.
Other analysts who reiterated hold calls but reduced their targets this week include Citi, from $66 to $63, and Jefferies, from $68 to $65.
Meanwhile, Macquarie stayed at $55, and UBS remained at $60 per share.
The most pessimistic target we found was $40.10, suggested by Barclays this week. This implies a potential 30% downside in FY27.
On The Bull, Remo Greco from Sanlam Private Wealth explained why he has a hold rating on BHP shares:
Several disappointing events have led us to downgrade BHP to a hold.
Cost over-runs at its Jansen stage 2 potash project in Canada lifts the investment cost by about $US2 billion to $US6.9 billion. Possible industrial action, although averted in June, may re-ignite at the company's iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.
Any industrial action may impact stock performance.
Longer term, we like BHP's exposure to copper – the key metal of the future.
James Bills from Shaw and Partners also has a hold rating and commented:
BHP remains a cornerstone of the Australian sharemarket, underpinned by its scale, diversified commodity exposure and strong balance sheet.
While iron ore continues to drive earnings, BHP is increasingly leveraged to future-facing commodities, including copper, where demand is expected to increase significantly due to growth in data centres and electric vehicles.
Despite near term volatility in commodity prices and sensitivity to global growth, the company's disciplined capital management and strong cash generation support shareholder returns.
Holding remains appropriate given its quality asset base and exposure to long term structural demand trends.
Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities recommends holding BHP shares because "the commodities bull market is still in the early stages of the latest cycle".
Experts say there are five fundamentals driving this new commodities supercycle. Learn more about them here.
